expected return that sounds too good to be true

I opended a thread a few days before but that was mainly about doubling rounds.

I found a video poker maschine in a gambling hall with unlikely high ER. It is a maschine designed by a big european gambling manufactory (gambling hall is located in europe too). Most of the 50+ games on the maschine are slots but there are also a few different games like bingo, roulette and one video poker game.

Here is the paytable:
five of a kind: 1000
royal flush: 500
straight flush: 200
four of a kind: 50
full house: 12
flush: 9
straight: 7
three of a kind: 5
two pairs: 3
Pair (jacks or better): 1

I compared the paytable with: joker kings or better

That would result in an ER of over 200% but I have to bet 2 times per round. I bet one coin, get my 5 cards, select the ones I want to keep and chance the cards which requires another coin. Even If I would never hit anything better than 4 of a kind I would still have a >100% ER.

I copied that in excel, replaced the payouts with my own and multiply the PROBABILITY with the pay, divide it with 2 (I have to bet 2 coins per round) to calculate the return.

But it is still over 100%. There are also two other advatages

-I win also with a pair of jacks or queens. Even I only get half it appears very often.

-I dont have to pay for the second round. If I have nothing and keep all cards a new round will begin. I used the Hand Analyzer:
with Joker (kings or better). The expected Return for some bad hands (no pair or 4/5 street where something in the middle is missing) is below 1. Since changing cards costs me 1 coin I surrender to bad starting hands.

ER (counting only kings and aces as pair): 114 %
ER (increasing probability of one high pair by 50%): 118 %
ER with surrender possibility: even greater

The maximum amount you can bet are 50 cents.
I can not believe that the ER is so high. Or made I some wrong calculations. With such high ER it seems to be impossible to loose at this game (no matter how big the variance or even with some major playing errors). Must be rigged.

Quote: Hansol333

I have to bet 2 times per round. I bet one coin, get my 5 cards, select the ones I want to keep and chance the cards which requires another coin.

Quote: Hansol333

I dont have to pay for the second round. If I have nothing and keep all cards a new round will begin.

So, buying the draw costs a second coin?

If you were comparing it to "standard" video poker, I think that means you divide all the payouts by 2.

You do have an advantage if you're dealt a good hand (2pair or better). If you need to draw (most of the time), dividing by 2 is appropriate for comparison.

So... with a paytable more like:
5oK: 500
Royal: 250
Straight Flush: 100
4oK: 25
full: 6
flush: 4.5
straight: 3.5
3oK: 2.5
2 pair: 1.5
JoB: .5

Is there the common royal bonus for betting 5 coins at a time?

The rules governing video poker in Nevada do not apply to the machine you are describing. I assume you are from Germany...

Basically, you are playing a slot machine, thus the paytable does not allow you to calculate the ER.

If this machine is indeed located in Germany, outside the state run casinos (you mentioned "gambling hall"), it is governed by these rules:

maximum hourly loss: 80 Euros
maximum average hourly loss: 33 Euros
maximum hourly win: 500 Euros

It would be impossible for a Class III VP machine to adhere to these rules. The rest is up to the manufacturer...

Quote: Dieter

So, buying the draw costs a second coin?

If you were comparing it to "standard" video poker, I think that means you divide all the payouts by 2.

You do have an advantage if you're dealt a good hand (2pair or better). If you need to draw (most of the time), dividing by 2 is appropriate for comparison.

Is there the common royal bonus for betting 5 coins at a time?

Like said I divided the bonus with 2 and still have an advantage.

No there is no bonus for making the maximum bet. There is also no natural royal flush meaning that 5 of a kind is the best payout. The payout is increased proportional. If I increase the bet from 5 cents (the minimum) to 50 cents (the maximum), all payouts are increased to 1000%.

Quote: Canyonero

The rules governing video poker in Nevada do not apply to the machine you are describing. I assume you are from Germany...

Basically, you are playing a slot machine, thus the paytable does not allow you to calculate the ER.

If this machine is indeed located in Germany, outside the state run casinos (you mentioned "gambling hall"), it is governed by these rules:

maximum hourly loss: 80 Euros
maximum average hourly loss: 33 Euros
maximum hourly win: 500 Euros

It would be impossible for a Class III VP machine to adhere to these rules. The rest is up to the manufacturer...

Yes correct I am from Germany.

Why does the paytable not allow me to calculate the EV?
There are 52 cards + one joker. Therefore I know the possibilities to draw the different hands. Ok I do not know them but believe the wizard. With the payback I should be able to calculate the ER. The only exception would be if the joker is only added in an unknown random percentage of rounds (but I assume/hope that's illegal).

What is a Class III VP machine ???
The truth is that I haven't occupied me with gaming regulation/laws here in my own country. So far I thought my winnings and loses could be endless. The only thing I exprienced so far was that the maschines stopped for a while after a certain time of play.

Quote: Hansol333

Why does the paytable not allow me to calculate the EV?
There are 52 cards + one joker. Therefore I know the possibilities to draw the different hands.

Put simply, this class of machine does not emulate real cards with real probabilities: It decides what percentage it is going to return (almost always <100% medium to long term) and deals whatever cards are required to meet that percentage, not from some random selected array of cards, but rather from something that makes it look like it has used a random selection of cards..

A bit like old fashioned slot machines with 3 reels of symbols. You can count and analyse the symbols and their supposed probabilities until hell freezes over, but the outcome of each play is probably decided before the reels start to spin and the reels are caused to land wherever they need to to cause that outcome.

Quote: Hansol333

Why does the paytable not allow me to calculate the EV?


What is a Class III VP machine ???

because the deal in the draw are not random. The machine decides what you should win or lose and shows you cards accordingly. A class III machine is a machine that is "truly random", i.e. works like a real deck of cards would.

thanks @OnceDear and Canyonero

Good thing to know that I won't play this game.

I thought that all gambling maschines are truly random. (watched some videos and read some articles about gambling, but of course thats only for USA).

But one question:

I am watching someone playing slots on a maschine and the maschine didn't pay for a long time. The unlucky player then leaves and I use the maschine. Would that resulte in a higher percentage for me to win right?

Quote: Hansol333

But one question:

I am watching someone playing slots on a maschine and the maschine didn't pay for a long time. The unlucky player then leaves and I use the maschine. Would that resulte in a higher percentage for me to win right?

Not usually enough for it to be an advantage to you. You don't know how long is 'a long time' for the machine. Maybe the previous guy though that his twelve hours pumping money in and losing was 'a long time', but then maybe the machine was intent on taking in more than it pays out for another 7 days. You play those 7 days and maybe the guy who follows you will profit.... Or maybe it was 14 days, and so on and so on.

Quote: Hansol333

I am watching someone playing slots on a maschine and the maschine didn't pay for a long time. The unlucky player then leaves and I use the maschine. Would that resulte in a higher percentage for me to win right?

Yes, these machines can be vultured. If you were lucky enough to see a guy put in 80 euros, lose it within half an hour and leave, you would be guaranteed to be at least even for the next half hour. This is highly unlikely though. Generally, the more you see people lose on a particular machine, the better your odds are gonna be.

Quote: OnceDear

Not usually enough for it to be an advantage to you. You don't know how long is 'a long time' for the machine. Maybe the previous guy though that his twelve hours pumping money in and losing was 'a long time', but then maybe the machine was intent on taking in more than it pays out for another 7 days. You play those 7 days and maybe the guy who follows you will profit.... Or maybe it was 14 days, and so on and so on.

Ok thanks, by the way:
is there a way to know what maschines are truly random and which are not.

One criteria I know so far. A VP maschine with >100% ER is most likely not truly random.

Quote: Canyonero

Yes, these machines can be vultured. If you were lucky enough to see a guy put in 80 euros, lose it within half an hour and leave, you would be guaranteed to be at least even for the next half hour. This is highly unlikely though. Generally, the more you see people lose on a particular machine, the better your odds are gonna be.

And in the real world..... Yes some machines can be vultured, but don't waste your time waiting for such opportunities.

Quote: OnceDear

Not usually enough for it to be an advantage to you. You don't know how long is 'a long time' for the machine. Maybe the previous guy though that his twelve hours pumping money in and losing was 'a long time', but then maybe the machine was intent on taking in more than it pays out for another 7 days. You play those 7 days and maybe the guy who follows you will profit.... Or maybe it was 14 days, and so on and so on.

Not true for Germany, the hourly maximums must be adhered to... Still, with a return in the 50% range not really AP material.

I've heard a test for a Class II machine is throwing away a winning pair, if you get dealt another one a couple of times in a row it's very likely. Has anyone actually tried this?

Quote: Hansol333

Ok thanks, by the way:
is there a way to know what maschines are truly random and which are not.

One criteria I know so far. A VP maschine with >100% ER is most likely not truly random.

Hmmm, a VP machine with >100% EV can be random (see Deuces Wild machines). It can be random but not simulating a pack of cards (so some cards are more likely than others to turn up is still a random machine if there's no correlation)

yes I heard about that but what is the maximum amount you can bet ? one dollar ? And what is the EV again? 100.76% if I am not wrong. So lets say you are betting 1 dollar per round with 100.76% ER. Average win per round = 0,76 cents that's nothing.

But it is unlikely that a VP maschine with 120+% ER can be beaten.

What about online gambling are the maschines there Type II or III ?

Damm gambling companies, they make more than enough money and most players are only playings slots/bingo. Why can't they at least have one game where the players win if and only if he's playing perfectly. There are lots of players betting the maximum on two or more slots maschines and that would balance my wins.


I guess I will return to online Poker playing against real humans. I played that a few years ago only in the lower area with 10 cents or something. I was pretty much even in that area. Of course the more you are betting the better the enemy players will become. The ER is pretty bad too if I am not wrong because you have to pay 10% of your bet as rake which the winner won't get. Therefore you have to win at least 55% of the games to be even in a headsup game (1 player vs. 1 other). However poker became boring after a while. Are they other games you can play gainst other humans (with money of course) that requires skill?

Quote: Hansol333

Are they other games you can play gainst other humans (with money of course) that requires skill?

Being German, you might want to get into Schafkopf or Skat. Skill factor is much higher than poker.

Backgammon would be another option.

Personally, I really like Mahjongg. Not too popular in the west though. Some casinos in Macau offer it, but the pace is superfast and players are superserious. I would never have dared to sit down at one of those (self-deal) tables.

Quote: Canyonero

The rules governing video poker in Nevada do not apply to the machine you are describing. I assume you are from Germany...

Basically, you are playing a slot machine, thus the paytable does not allow you to calculate the ER.

If this machine is indeed located in Germany, outside the state run casinos (you mentioned "gambling hall"), it is governed by these rules:

maximum hourly loss: 80 Euros
maximum average hourly loss: 33 Euros
maximum hourly win: 500 Euros

It would be impossible for a Class III VP machine to adhere to these rules. The rest is up to the manufacturer...

really a game can't say you hit the max loss come back in X time to play some more?

Or move some win's over the cap to a bank that you have to wait to cash out / you can bet out the that bank and it does not count as part of you max loss?