I run good in VP

$1 9/6 JoB, 750 hands

2 quads
a half dozen full houses (3 of them within 5 hands)
+$400 when I stopped

From the wiz's VP table (https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/jacks-or-better/), how do I figure out how much positive variance I'm experiencing? (aka how often a hand should be hitting on avg)


edit:
wait a sec.. a full house accounts for 10% of the return?! and a flush is only 6% and a straight is 4%???
I'm a little lost on this?

Almost all of your return is from high pairs, two pairs, and three of a kinds.

Higher hands don't add nearly as much to your return (royal is ~2%).

In the super short term (5 minutes) you need high pair / two pair / 3 of a kinds to stay alive.

In the regular short term, like an hour or a few hours, you need those 4oaks, FHs and flushes to stay alive.

Over a longer term (not "the long term"), you need royals to keep up....like a year or so of play.

The more you play, the less the lower hands become a factor and the higher hands become a larger factor, because the hands on the lower end become more normalized and they get to their long term much quicker than higher paying hands, like a royal.

Like after 100k hands, you're not gonna have much variance in the high pairs payouts....but you'll have a lot of variance in the RF and similar hands (ie AWAK on DDB).

Quote: 100xOdds

$1 9/6 JoB, 750 hands

2 quads
a half dozen full houses (3 of them within 5 hands)
+$400 when I stopped

From the wiz's VP table (https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/tables/jacks-or-better/), how do I figure out how much positive variance I'm experiencing? (aka how often a hand should be hitting on avg)


edit:
wait a sec.. a full house accounts for 10% of the return?! and a flush is only 6% and a straight is 4%???
I'm a little lost on this?

You obviously ran good very good on other hands, probably a mix of everything because you were short at least 1 full house, but on average ahead about 100 hands on the 4 of a kind. So nothing strange about that.

its about 25% for the 2 pair(s) it would seem odd to be that far out of whack on 2 pair over 750 hands. That's why it seems to be a mix.
I find it odd to be up +$400 without running good on Full houses and 4's.

Quote: AxelWolf

You obviously ran good very good on other hands, probably a mix of everything because you were short at least 1 full house, but on average ahead about 100 hands on the 4 of a kind. So nothing strange about that.

its about 25% for the 2 pair(s) it would seem odd to be that far out of whack on 2 pair over 750 hands. That's why it seems to be a mix.
I find it odd to be up +$400 without running good on Full houses and 4's.

wow.. a full house every 100 hands and quads are every 400 hands??
How about a straight flush?
and how do you calculate the frequency?

yeah, I was running hot. almost every low pair resulted in 2 pair or trips.
heck, I discarded 5 cards and redraw a flush.

hm.. I could have had 7 full houses.

Its like 90 hands FH and 425 4oak.

I don't calculate I just know from memory from running games frequently in the past(since I suck at math). I'm probably off a few hands as it is(different games are slightly different especially for flushes) I could look up the exact numbers, but I don't have the program I use, on this computer.

you probably should have had closer to 8 FH's. Someone will probably posts the exact numbers worked out.

PM me ill send you a download for a good free program.

Its nice to have a good run on $1 9/6 like that. Usually its a boring grind downward until you spike a RF or a few STFL. Even with a STFL you'll still get spanked it's just more temporary ammo.

Without a good promotion I get board after 1hr on 9/6 $1. DW Is far more entertaining IMO. My favorite is All American, but that's a really completed game. If you don't play it for a while you'll find yourself having to bring a strategy cad. It's rare to find them with a playable paytable.

I am jealous. My single line VP statistics are so bad the last couple of years that I have pretty much quit playing it out of frustration. My multi-hand VP has been right on with expectation.

If also find it very hard to go back to single line after playing lots of multi-line. In my case I am mostly playing for handle and promotions so multi-line gets me there so much faster.

I did run into a single line $1 17/10 Loose Deuces recently in a very old machine. I played about an hour with poor results but then I had to leave. I wish I found one of those much closer to my house, I would settle for single hand with that return.

Quote: DRich

I am jealous. My single line VP statistics are so bad the last couple of years that I have pretty much quit playing it out of frustration. .

Same here but not quitting yet.
I spent 7 days in Vegas my last trip.
Longest trip yet. Played a ton of video poker.
Still have not hit that elusive royal in Vegas.
Took a trip to Biloxi once, hit it there.
Play a little in Biloxi, hit it there, play a ton in Vegas, nope.
Maybe my next Vegas trip.

Quote: DRich

I am jealous. My single line VP statistics are so bad the last couple of years that I have pretty much quit playing it out of frustration. My multi-hand VP has been right on with expectation.

My single line VP statistics are very good. I hit a royal right about where I need to. Sometimes more :)

My multi-hand statistics are bad. Very few royals.