Variance of 8/5 JoB (3play) vs DW44?

I'm getting $275 in freeplay.
$100 of it before midnight and the rest after midnight.
The $100 expires at 11:59pm.

best vp at the casino is $5 deuces wild 44 (98.9%).
it also has $5 8/6 JoB and 3play $1 8/5 JoB progressive (97.3%).

so it's either going to be $25/spin or $15/spin.

$5 vp will get me 11 spins.
$1 8/5 JoB progressive (3play) will get me 18 spins.

my goal is to turn that $275 into ~$275 cash.

Which game would give me the best chance of turning the freeplay into ~$275 cash?

Quote: 100xOdds

best vp at the casino is...

Best is not always highest overall RTP.

Quote: 100xOdds

... $5 deuces wild 44 (98.9%).
it also has $5 8/6 JoB and 3play $1 8/5 JoB progressive (97.3%).

so it's either going to be $25/spin or $15/spin.
...
my goal is to turn that $275 into ~$275 cash.

Which game would give me the best chance of turning the freeplay into ~$275 cash?

I took a look at two helpful charts on a website - Jacks or Better and Deuces Wild. These seem to cover both probability and RTP.

For each, I added two additional columns - I'm calling them cumulative RTP and cumulative probability. (The sum of probabilities / returns to the bottom of the paytable.)

DW44 98.9%

HAND	PAYOFF	COMBINATIONS	PROBABILITY	RETURN	Cumulative RTP	Cumulative Probability
Natural royal flush	800	459049128	0.000023	0.018423	0.989131	0.443611
Four deuces	200	3727422492	0.000187	0.037399	0.970708	0.443588
Wild royal flush	25	38117987136	0.001912	0.047807	0.933309	0.443401
Five of a kind	15	62201557608	0.00312	0.046807	0.885502	0.441489
Straight flush	9	98365859016	0.004935	0.044413	0.838695	0.438369
Four of a kind	4	1221942888444	0.061302	0.245207	0.794282	0.433434
Full house	4	522030131520	0.026189	0.104756	0.549075	0.372132
Flush	3	407586633720	0.020448	0.061343	0.444319	0.345943
Straight	2	1145767137120	0.05748	0.114961	0.382976	0.325495
Three of a kind	1	5342397992292	0.268015	0.268015	0.268015	0.268015
Nothing	0	11090633858724	0.556389	0
Total		19933230517200	1	0.989131

JoB 8/5

HAND	PAYOFF	COMBINATIONS	PROBABILITY	RETURN	Cumulative RTP	Cumulative Probability
Royal flush	800	496224876	0.00002489	0.01991548	0.97298434	0.4549776
Straight flush	50	2146096656	0.00010766	0.00538321	0.95306886	0.45495271
Four of a kind	25	47100003732	0.00236289	0.05907222	0.94768565	0.45484505
Full house	8	229504776948	0.01151368	0.09210942	0.88861343	0.45248216
Flush	5	217303355868	0.01090156	0.05450781	0.79650401	0.44096848
Straight	4	223952329860	0.01123512	0.0449405	0.7419962	0.43006692
Three of a kind	3	1484283075660	0.07446275	0.22338824	0.6970557	0.4188318
Two pair	2	2577335006268	0.12929841	0.25859682	0.47366746	0.34436905
Jacks or Better	1	4287052708344	0.21507064	0.21507064	0.21507064	0.21507064
Nothing	0	10864056938988	0.54502239	0
Total		19933230517200	1	0.97298434

JoB looks to be lower variance. Since DW44 would be even higher variance (relative to your bankroll) since you're increasing denomination, I don't think that's the way to go.

What are the paytable options for 25c? (I know out here in the VP wasteland, I can get 25c 8/5 JoB 3L... which would be 30 rounds)

edit: It looks like DW44 would be the way to go if you're reasonably sure you can get a good number of 4oKs... but that wouldn't be gambling.

Quote: 100xOdds

I'm getting $275 in freeplay.
$100 of it before midnight and the rest after midnight.
The $100 expires at 11:59pm.

best vp at the casino is $5 deuces wild 44 (98.9%).
it also has $5 8/6 JoB and 3play $1 8/5 JoB progressive (97.3%).

so it's either going to be $25/spin or $15/spin.

$5 vp will get me 11 spins.
$1 8/5 JoB progressive (3play) will get me 18 spins.

my goal is to turn that $275 into ~$275 cash.

Which game would give me the best chance of turning the freeplay into ~$275 cash?

None of them, with only $275 your going to fluctuate a fair amount on all of them
"(3play) will get me 18 spins." will have a better chance of getting something.

Sorry, Just realized those don't fairly compare the two unless they're sorted by probability.

DW44 98.9%

HAND	PAYOFF	COMBINATIONS	PROBABILITY	RETURN	Cumulative RTP	Cumulative Probability
Natural royal flush	800	459049128	0.000023	0.018423	0.989131	0.443611
Four deuces	200	3727422492	0.000187	0.037399	0.970708	0.443588
Wild royal flush	25	38117987136	0.001912	0.047807	0.933309	0.443401
Five of a kind	15	62201557608	0.00312	0.046807	0.885502	0.441489
Straight flush	9	98365859016	0.004935	0.044413	0.838695	0.438369
Flush	3	407586633720	0.020448	0.061343	0.794282	0.433434
Full house	4	522030131520	0.026189	0.104756	0.732939	0.412986
Straight	2	1145767137120	0.05748	0.114961	0.628183	0.386797
Four of a kind	4	1221942888444	0.061302	0.245207	0.513222	0.329317
Three of a kind	1	5342397992292	0.268015	0.268015	0.268015	0.268015
Nothing	0	11090633858724	0.556389	0
Total		19933230517200	1	0.989131

That makes DW44 look a bit better.

I'm still in favor of more rounds of more lines.

thx!

the best at .50 is 7/5 JoB single line.
I think .25 is 6/5 JoB :(


there's also single line $1 8/5 JoB but not progressive.
this would get me 55 spins.

I would probably play single line 0.50 or 1.00 denom.

Quote: 100xOdds

thx!

the best at .50 is 7/5 JoB single line.
I think .25 is 6/5 JoB :(


there's also single line $1 8/5 JoB but not progressive.
this would get me 55 spins.

You need to decide if you would rather have purely EV or if you want CASH in your pocket. No matter what you prefer, remember you're only cycling though $275, even at a 5% loss in EV, thats less than 15 bucks. So playing .25 denom on a bad pay will probably have less variance. Perhaps entertainment value can justify that extra HA. Is there free drinks at the bar?

Question.... what do you play to get the Free play?

Quote: AxelWolf

You need to decide if you would rather have purely EV or if you want CASH in your pocket. No matter what you prefer, remember you're only cycling though $275, even at a 5% loss in EV, thats less than 15 bucks. So playing .25 denom on a bad pay will probably have less variance. Perhaps entertainment value can justify that extra HA. Is there free drinks at the bar?

Question.... what do you play to get the Free play?

e-craps.

I used to do freeplay there till they stopped allowing it a year ago.
and no freeplay allowed on e-baccarat and e-roulette either.

no free drinks, and I don't drink while I gamble anyway.


yeah, I know.. first world problem.. how to play $275 free $ :)

Quote: 100xOdds

But you can still EARN the FP on E craps? If so, SWEET DEAL(maybe). Have you calculated if you have an advantage or are you playing far more and giving up more EV than your getting back in FP?

Quote: 100xOdds

I think .25 is 6/5 JoB :(

If you find yourself considering 6/5 JoB, look for 6/5 BP instead. It's probably got the same low end, same lousy middle, but a much better 4oK structure.

Don't be afraid to look around - in one place that I thought had crud for paytables, I managed to find something half decent buried on a Super Times Pay machine - same 3 line game that I like if you're not buying the multiplier chance for the extra coin.

If I recall, it was pretty dramatic - 8/5 25c in the STP, but if you flipped it to triple play, it was 7/5 25c. Same machine.

Also, if BP isn't 1-2-3-4 at the bottom, then flip to DB.

Quote: AxelWolf

But you can still EARN the FP on E craps? If so, SWEET DEAL(maybe). Have you calculated if you have an advantage or are you playing far more and giving up more EV than your getting back in FP?

If you are getting back more FP than you're losing in EV at least you can claim you're an advantage craps player and have mathematical proof to back it up.

Quote: AxelWolf

If you are getting back more FP than you're losing in EV at least you can claim you're an advantage craps player and have mathematical proof to back it up.

no AP. these offers are special holiday offers.

I think everyone at my card level gets a minimal amount reguardless of coin-in for previous month.
(my coin-in for Nov was near $0 because of vacations and traveling for thanksgiving.)

Quote: Dieter

If you find yourself considering 6/5 JoB, look for 6/5 BP instead. It's probably got the same low end, same lousy middle, but a much better 4oK structure.

Don't be afraid to look around - in one place that I thought had crud for paytables, I managed to find something half decent buried on a Super Times Pay machine - same 3 line game that I like if you're not buying the multiplier chance for the extra coin.

If I recall, it was pretty dramatic - 8/5 25c in the STP, but if you flipped it to triple play, it was 7/5 25c. Same machine.

Also, if BP isn't 1-2-3-4 at the bottom, then flip to DB.

Yes, I would look for 6/5 Bonus in quarters if you are trying to minimize variance. Also, on the STP machines, you can still bet one line at a max bet. You just have to adjust it on the touch screen and avoid hitting the max bet button. I play one line STP/Double STP a lot. Only about 1 in 100 actually plays STP this way though.



I would watch out for Double Bonus though...it needs to be at least 9/6/4 to be above 96%. 7/5 DDB (which I'd think they would have, definitely on STP) is better than 9/5/4 or 8/5/4 DB.