Odds of natural 4OAK in NSUD?

I've seen some promotions for hitting 4 of a kinds at places that offer both NSUD and FP JoB and I wonder if anyone has numbers on how often a natural 4 of a kind (which would include 5 of a kind with one deuce like 88882) hits when playing the usual NSUD strategy.

My natural inclination is to think that the promotion would have to have extraordinary value to make it worth giving up the almost 0.2% difference between the two games, as I doubt the difference in 4OAKs is that big.

In a thread about Power Quads, where the same knowledge is desired, I posted tables showing the breakdown for each rank for both Jacks or Better and NSUD.

Thanks much! :)

abacabb, there is a shortcut trick I used to use back in the day on Winpoker for stuff like this. It doesn't work on any other software that I know of.

I would sometimes play $1 Deuces Deluxe on promotions at Harvey's Lake Tahoe. Deuces Deluxe is a deuce variation where natural straight flushes and natural quads payed more than wild straight flushes and wild quads. It was a 100.3% game.

When you bring up the Deuces Deluxe game on Winpoker and look at the game analysis it shows you make a natural quad every 648 games. One of the things you can do with Winpoker is change the payoff table. So, for analyzing NSUD to get the natural quad frequency all you have to do is bring up Deuces Deluxe and change the paytable to the NSUD paytable and analyze.

1. Click on Games, then click on Deuces Deluxe.
2. Click on Options, then click on Change Paytable.
3. Change the 5K payoff to 16
4. Change the natural and wild straight flush payoffs to 10
5. Change the natural 4K payoff to 4
6. Click on OK.
7. Click on Analyze, then click on game.

When the analysis is through it will give you the game stats. In NSUD you will make a natural quad every 643.6288 games. You will make 4 Deuces every 5355.894 games. Then average it out to making a natural quad every 574.58 games.

This will work on most other deuce games too.

Quote: mickeycrimm

abacabb, there is a shortcut trick I used to use back in the day on Winpoker for stuff like this. It doesn't work on any other software that I know of.

I would sometimes play $1 Deuces Deluxe on promotions at Harvey's Lake Tahoe. Deuces Deluxe is a deuce variation where natural straight flushes and natural quads payed more than wild straight flushes and wild quads. It was a 100.3% game.

When you bring up the Deuces Deluxe game on Winpoker and look at the game analysis it shows you make a natural quad every 648 games. One of the things you can do with Winpoker is change the payoff table. So, for analyzing NSUD to get the natural quad frequency all you have to do is bring up Deuces Deluxe and change the paytable to the NSUD paytable and analyze.

1. Click on Games, then click on Deuces Deluxe.
2. Click on Options, then click on Change Paytable.
3. Change the 5K payoff to 16
4. Change the natural and wild straight flush payoffs to 10
5. Change the natural 4K payoff to 4
6. Click on OK.
7. Click on Analyze, then click on game.

When the analysis is through it will give you the game stats. In NSUD you will make a natural quad every 643.6288 games. You will make 4 Deuces every 5355.894 games. Then average it out to making a natural quad every 574.58 games.

This will work on most other deuce games too.

I failed to mention that once you go through all the steps above the first thing you want to do is take a look at the payback percentage of the game. Deuces Deluxe is a 100.3% game. But when you change the payscale to NSUD and analyze the payback percentage should say 99.73%. This will confirm that you made the correct changes to the paytable.

My way of averaging the numbers is divide 5355.894 by 643.6288 to get 8.3214. Then add 1 to get 9.3214. Then divide 5355.894 by 9.3214 to get 574.5804.

Quote: mickeycrimm

I failed to mention that once you go through all the steps above the first thing you want to do is take a look at the payback percentage of the game. Deuces Deluxe is a 100.3% game. But when you change the payscale to NSUD and analyze the payback percentage should say 99.73%. This will confirm that you made the correct changes to the paytable.

My way of averaging the numbers is divide 5355.894 by 643.6288 to get 8.3214. Then add 1 to get 9.3214. Then divide 5355.894 by 9.3214 to get 574.5804.

The problem with this approach is that, in Deuces Deluxe, Five of a Kind outranks a Natural Four of a Kind, so hands that contain a natural quad with a deuce kicker are scored as Five of a Kind instead of Natural Four of a Kind, which throws all the figures off.

The hit rate for any natural four of a kind in NSUD is 1 in 483.2222, rounded.

Quote: JB

The problem with this approach is that, in Deuces Deluxe, Five of a Kind outranks a Natural Four of a Kind, so hands that contain a natural quad with a deuce kicker are scored as Five of a Kind instead of Natural Four of a Kind, which throws all the figures off. The hit rate for any natural four of a kind in NSUD is 1 in 483.2222, rounded.

Wow! That's a nice find, JB. I don't recall ever taking that into consideration. I was playing stronger than I thought I was. But I was playing for 4 of a kind bonuses on FPDW, not NSUD. Even stronger yet.