Progressives and meter rise

There's a question that's been making my mind hurt about progressives and meter rise.

Let's assume the game in question has exactly a 99% return at the meter restart, and the meter rise is 1% (so $1 coin-in = +$0.01 to the jackpot). Let's also assume that there is no strategy to the game (e.g. hit a button and with some probability you will get X payout) so a high meter will not necessitate any change in strategy. Lastly let's assume such a game is standalone and not linked.

If we are the only person to play this game, quite clearly it has 100% return over the long run. If the game has been played before and the meter is high enough already to make the return of the game 100% then we start playing, we can say that at the point we sit down the game has an expected return of 101%. In general at a given point in time we can calculate the expected return of the machine. The longer we play and do not hit the jackpot, the expected return goes up.

However, what if we don't always occupy the machine until the jackpot is hit? Someone else may come along and hit it, thus earning our 1% contribution. What can we say about our long term expected return in playing then? It does not seem right to me to simply add 1%.

Edit: I edited this because of a stupid example I came up with. :P

Duh the 1% would be included in the 99%.

Quote: abacabb

There's a question that's been making my mind hurt about progressives and meter rise.

Let's assume the game in question has exactly a 99% return at the meter restart, and the meter rise is 1% (so $1 coin-in = +$0.01 to the jackpot). Let's also assume that there is no strategy to the game (e.g. hit a button and with some probability you will get X payout) so a high meter will not necessitate any change in strategy. Lastly let's assume such a game is standalone and not linked.

If we are the only person to play this game, quite clearly it has 100% return over the long run. If the game has been played before and the meter is high enough already to make the return of the game 100% then we start playing, we can say that at the point we sit down the game has an expected return of 101%. In general at a given point in time we can calculate the expected return of the machine. The longer we play and do not hit the jackpot, the expected return goes up.

However, what if we don't always occupy the machine until the jackpot is hit? Someone else may come along and hit it, thus earning our 1% contribution. What can we say about our long term expected return in playing then? It does not seem right to me to simply add 1%.

Edit: I edited this because of a stupid example I came up with. :P

EV is always additive.

If you sit down and play only one spin the meter rise from your play is irrelevant; your expecation is determined by the meter before you spin.

The reason that this is a little confusing is that, if you play and don't hit the jackpot, you have the right to make another bet at slightly higher EV than your previous bet. And this continues -- you continually have the right to make a bet with higher EV than you made previously.

So your total expected return depends on how long you are willing and able to keep playing for. This is what makes the math complicated. There is no simple answer to your long-term expected return -- in this case, it depends on your strategy (ie, when you will quit)

Technically, yes, there's a lower house edge with meter rise, until a break-even/player positive range occurs.

Most progressive meters are designed with standard parameters (edit: table progressives):
1. about 50% is returned to the player via "rack pays," or fixed amounts that are not subtracted from the jackpot meter; (some systems subtract all payouts from the running meter, for example a $75 four of a kind payout. These are common with player meter consoles instead of the more sommon "hockey puck" $1 only spot sensors).
2. 25% (anywhere from 10% to 28%) goes to increment the meter's jackpot, with a fractional percentage to a secondary account to re-seed the meter after it hits the 100% jackpot (1% to 6% goes to the secondary fund).
3. House takes around 20% to 25% HE. Limits in many states are 25% max HE allowed after all payouts, with 25% re-seed between both the primary (incrementally rising) main jackpot and secondary/reserve/reseed fund.

The top jackpot can have anywhere from 1 in 100,000 to 1 in 2M hit frequency or so, with the 10% jackpot hitting anywhere from 20x to 5x the hit frequency of the 10%/secondary jackpot payout (e.g., 5 Aces versus 7-card straight flush on PGP jackpots, 10% and 100% respectively). An exception to this is the Three Card Poker player hand progressive, which averages $2,600 or so, due to the 1 in 22,100 hit frequency of AKQ of spades with a 10c main meter contribution and a $500 initial seed. Average running value is key to the design of a progressive, which is factored by the meter contribution and hit rate(s) of the primary and secondary jackpots.

PGD: I think he is talking about progressive slot machines, not the $1 bonus side bets on many table games.

Yes, he is, but I think in terms of table games; concepts are the same -
- hit frequencies
- reseeding the main meter and secondary (reserve) accounts
- house take as a % of coin-in.

With a wide network, tiny contributions would move the meter fairly well.

The same spreadsheet would work, zeroing out the rack pays for machines.