But, all the good value is in the 5% meter movement. The problem is if you contribute to it and then have to leave. Once it gets juicy more serious players will come in and snap up all your meter movement.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou can still play it if you don't lock up all the seats. Your expectation is the same as a single player on the team. The only issue is that the bankroll requirements are the same for you as they are for an entire team playing all the seats at once (the shared bankroll is the real advantage of team play -- if there are 16 seats, you get 16x the expected profit on the same bankroll. This applies to other +EV opportunities too)
It's also not necessary to commit to staying there until you hit it. It's still +EV if you don't -- your expectation is hourly. The only problem is that if you can't find another good play, when you leave (or if someone else hits it) it might be a long time until you get the opportunity to make another +EV play.
seriously thinking going there with a few guys and putting in some time to see what kind of offers they generate. picking up would be a bitch so that's a big drawback. Obviously it would be a great play (assuming its on the square) if you could get enough players. I'm not sure there any VP teams left that could coordinate locking it up since it's in California. I would guess a few small groups could make a time share deal and split the Royal up. Different groups could just be responsible for their own individual drops.
Quote: PBguyFor example, the Keno games on these machines have a minimum bet of .25 and a max of $10. To win the progressive jackpot you have to bet $2 but the regulars bet $10 once the jackpot gets above a certain amount where it typically hits. This specific bank recently had a Superball jackpot hit at over $143,000 and the winner was betting $10.
PBguy, if the minimum bet to qualify for the progressive meter is $2 then it would be a big mistake to overbet. Overbetting does not increase your chances of hitting the progressive. All it does is drive up the average cost to produce the top line hit. A $10 bet would have an average cost that is five times higher than the $2 bet. And your chances (odds) of hitting a video keno progressive never change. Just because the meter reaches a certain level doesn't mean the progressive is now easier to hit. At least that's how it is with class III gaming.
If you can get all the pertinent information on the keno progressives we would be glad to analyze it for you. But here's is a little bit of information on frequencies on keno progressives:
The frequency for hitting a solid five spot is 1550.57
6-spot = 7753
7-spot = 40,984
8-spot = 233,000
9-spot = 164,000
10-spot = 8.9 million
Ideally, you would like to find strong meters on the 5-spot and 6-spot as they are the easiest to hit. A 7-spot progressive is similar in odds to a video poker royal progressive play. When you get into 8-spots and higher the odds are really long....and more suitable for a gang of players to tackle. With odds of 8.9 million you can forget a straight up 10-spot progressive. You could go six lifetimes and never hit it.
The picture you put up of the 10-spot progressive with the $143,000 hit on it was for hitting either the 9/10 or 10/10 which would have a frequency of about 161,000. But I took a look at that payscale, and with a $10 bet the payscale would only return about 50% between progressive hits, which is not good. That is, if it's a straight up keno progressive. What I don't know is why they call it Superball Keno. There may be a game within the game on this progressive. The return should be much higher than 50% between progressive hits.
By the way, which thread did you put that picture in? I can't find it.
And can you tell us if there are meters on the 8-spot, 7-spot, 6-spot, 5-spot?
Quote: mickeycrimmPBguy, if the minimum bet to qualify for the progressive meter is $2 then it would be a big mistake to overbet. Overbetting does not increase your chances of hitting the progressive. All it does is drive up the average cost to produce the top line hit. A $10 bet would have an average cost that is five times higher than the $2 bet. And your chances (odds) of hitting a video keno progressive never change. Just because the meter reaches a certain level doesn't mean the progressive is now easier to hit. At least that's how it is with class III gaming.
If you can get all the pertinent information on the keno progressives we would be glad to analyze it for you. But here's is a little bit of information on frequencies on keno progressives:
The frequency for hitting a solid five spot is 1550.57
6-spot = 7753
7-spot = 40,984
8-spot = 233,000
9/10 = 164,000
9-spot = 1.4 million
10-spot = 8.9 million
Ideally, you would like to find strong meters on the 5-spot and 6-spot as they are the easiest to hit. A 7-spot progressive is similar in odds to a video poker royal progressive play. When you get into 8-spots and higher the odds are really long....and more suitable for a gang of players to tackle. With odds of 8.9 million you can forget a straight up 10-spot progressive. You could go six lifetimes and never hit it.
The picture you put up of the 10-spot progressive with the $143,000 hit on it was for hitting either the 9/10 or 10/10 which would have a frequency of about 161,000. But I took a look at that payscale, and with a $10 bet the payscale would only return about 50% between progressive hits, which is not good. That is, if it's a straight up keno progressive. What I don't know is why they call it Superball Keno. There may be a game within the game on this progressive. The return should be much higher than 50% between progressive hits.
By the way, which thread did you put that picture in? I can't find it.
And can you tell us if there are meters on the 8-spot, 7-spot, 6-spot, 5-spot?
Edit: 9/10 is 164,000. A solid 9-spot hit is 1.4 million. I 've changed the above post to show that.
Quote: AxelWolfBut, all the good value is in the 5% meter movement. The problem is if you contribute to it and then have to leave. Once it gets juicy more serious players will come in and snap up all your meter movement.
seriously thinking going there with a few guys and putting in some time to see what kind of offers they generate. picking up would be a bitch so that's a big drawback. Obviously it would be a great play (assuming its on the square) if you could get enough players. I'm not sure there any VP teams left that could coordinate locking it up since it's in California. I would guess a few small groups could make a time share deal and split the Royal up. Different groups could just be responsible for their own individual drops.
Your EV is still the same whether your teammates have all the seats or not. You have 1/16 of that meter movement just like everyone else.
Again, the big advantage of locking up all the seats is that you get 16 seats worth of EV instead of just 1, with the same bankroll requirements.
Quote: mickeycrimmPBguy, if the minimum bet to qualify for the progressive meter is $2 then it would be a big mistake to overbet. Overbetting does not increase your chances of hitting the progressive. All it does is drive up the average cost to produce the top line hit. A $10 bet would have an average cost that is five times higher than the $2 bet. And your chances (odds) of hitting a video keno progressive never change. Just because the meter reaches a certain level doesn't mean the progressive is now easier to hit. At least that's how it is with class III gaming.
If you can get all the pertinent information on the keno progressives we would be glad to analyze it for you. But here's is a little bit of information on frequencies on keno progressives:
The frequency for hitting a solid five spot is 1550.57
6-spot = 7753
7-spot = 40,984
8-spot = 233,000
9-spot = 164,000
10-spot = 8.9 million
Ideally, you would like to find strong meters on the 5-spot and 6-spot as they are the easiest to hit. A 7-spot progressive is similar in odds to a video poker royal progressive play. When you get into 8-spots and higher the odds are really long....and more suitable for a gang of players to tackle. With odds of 8.9 million you can forget a straight up 10-spot progressive. You could go six lifetimes and never hit it.
The picture you put up of the 10-spot progressive with the $143,000 hit on it was for hitting either the 9/10 or 10/10 which would have a frequency of about 161,000. But I took a look at that payscale, and with a $10 bet the payscale would only return about 50% between progressive hits, which is not good. That is, if it's a straight up keno progressive. What I don't know is why they call it Superball Keno. There may be a game within the game on this progressive. The return should be much higher than 50% between progressive hits.
By the way, which thread did you put that picture in? I can't find it.
And can you tell us if there are meters on the 8-spot, 7-spot, 6-spot, 5-spot?
Superball keno gives you 4x the normal win if the last ball is a "hit" on one of your numbers. So if you hit say 5 of 10 and it normally pays $120 it would pay $480 (I made up those numbers).
Not sure why the regulars max bet if it doesn't help them win. Maybe they just believe they are more likely to win if they max bet or believe the progressive is set to win at a certain amount.
Obviously with JoB the amount of the progressive has nothing to do with whether you hit a RF or not.
Lets say you start the play at break even. The progressive is not attractive to other people yet, you play for a long time and run the meter up thousands of dollars. At this point it becomes attractive to a team of players and they all jump in and start playing.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYour EV is still the same whether your teammates have all the seats or not. You have 1/16 of that meter movement just like everyone else.
Again, the big advantage of locking up all the seats is that you get 16 seats worth of EV instead of just 1, with the same bankroll requirements.
I also confirmed you can overbet. I got it up to $60 before I gave up trying to find the limit. No, I didn't play any hands at $60! I did play a few hands at $8 to be eligible for the jackpot and managed to break even.
Quote: AxelWolfLets say you start the play at break even. The progressive is not attractive to other people yet, you play for a long time and run the meter up thousands of dollars. At this point it becomes attractive to a team of players and they all jump in and start playing.
I'm not sure I see your point.
First, why would you start the game at break-even? I want nothing to do with a break-even bet.
Second, remember that EV is always additive. That mean that the EV of all the players combined (ie, the EV of the team) is just the sum of the EVs of all the players. So, if all the players are playing the same way (same strategy and speed) then each player has the same EV, so each player's EV is just 1/16 of the total. This is true whether the players are playing as a team, on their own, or some combination.
As far as the meter rise goes, you are contributing 1/16 to the meter rise and have a 1/16 chance of winning the jackpot. So instead of having a 100% chance of getting the money you contributed to the meter back, you have a 1/16 chance of getting 16x the money you contributed to the meter back. It's a wash.
As for the money that was already in the meter, you would obviously prefer if the other 15 people did not sit down (since now you are splitting that EV up 16 ways instead of getting it all) but that doesn't mean that it's not profitable to play alone.
I think that some of the confusion here is from the apples-to-oranges comparison of the EV of the play itself and the EV per hand.
Your EV per hand is the same regardless of how many people are playing. Your total EV for the play drops to 1/16 of the value with other people sitting (but you also only play 1/16 as many hands on average, vs being the only player at the bank)
Bla bla bla...(:Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI'm not sure I see your point.
First, why would you start the game at break-even? I want nothing to do with a break-even bet.
Second, remember that EV is always additive. That mean that the EV of all the players combined (ie, the EV of the team) is just the sum of the EVs of all the players. So, if all the players are playing the same way (same strategy and speed) then each player has the same EV, so each player's EV is just 1/16 of the total. This is true whether the players are playing as a team, on their own, or some combination.
As far as the meter rise goes, you are contributing 1/16 to the meter rise and have a 1/16 chance of winning the jackpot. So instead of having a 100% chance of getting the money you contributed to the meter back, you have a 1/16 chance of getting 16x the money you contributed to the meter back. It's a wash.
As for the money that was already in the meter, you would obviously prefer if the other 15 people did not sit down (since now you are splitting that EV up 16 ways instead of getting it all) but that doesn't mean that it's not profitable to play alone.
I think that some of the confusion here is from the apples-to-oranges comparison of the EV of the play itself and the EV per hand.
Your EV per hand is the same regardless of how many people are playing. Your total EV for the play drops to 1/16 of the value with other people sitting (but you also only play 1/16 as many hands on average, vs being the only player at the bank)
I was saying break even without the meter movement, then playing for the 5% moment, that would be a decent play.
I may not be explain myself properly. I just know if I start playing while its low and run up the meter then everyone jumps in when its high, I would lose some value.
Quote: AxelWolfBla bla bla...(:
I was saying break even without the meter movement, then playing for the 5% moment, that would be a decent play.
I may not be explain myself properly. I just know if I start playing while its low and run up the meter then everyone jumps in when its high, I would lose some value.
Yes, you definitely lose value when other people jump in.
To be clear, each hand has the same EV regardless of how many people are playing, but you will play fewer hands if more people are playing.
My point is just that you don't need a team to play. Locking up all 16 seats is worth 16x as much as playing 1 seat, but playing 1 seat still has positive expectation. Also, if everyone on your team gets an equal cut, then this is a wash (since you make 16x as much but have to split it 16 ways).
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYes, you definitely lose value when other people jump in.
To be clear, each hand has the same EV regardless of how many people are playing, but you will play fewer hands if more people are playing.
My point is just that you don't need a team to play. Locking up all 16 seats is worth 16x as much as playing 1 seat, but playing 1 seat still has positive expectation. Also, if everyone on your team gets an equal cut, then this is a wash (since you make 16x as much but have to split it 16 ways).
But playing as a team: You get there faster and guarantee your team hits the RF. As opposed to solo play where you could play 40 hours just to have someone else hit the royal.
Yes expectation (per hand) is the same. But certainty is different.
Quote: PBguyViejas removed 8 machines from the bank so now there are only 10 machines. The ones they removed were outside of the High Limit area so I'm not sure why they were included in the bank at all. Anyway now it would be easier to lock up all 10 machines. The jackpot is over $30K as of last night. No one chasing it last night even with the casino very crowded since they give away a car on Wed night (Sat night also).
I also confirmed you can overbet. I got it up to $60 before I gave up trying to find the limit. No, I didn't play any hands at $60! I did play a few hands at $8 to be eligible for the jackpot and managed to break even.
Wow. You put the picture up two week ago and it's already back on a number.
Quote: RSBut playing as a team: You get there faster and guarantee your team hits the RF. As opposed to solo play where you could play 40 hours just to have someone else hit the royal.
Yes expectation (per hand) is the same. But certainty is different.
You seem to be mixing and matching here.... comparing apples to oranges.
If the bank is empty (you are the only one playing) you are also guaranteed to hit the RF. If the bank is full, then you are not guaranteed to hit it, but you also don't get there faster (your number of expected hands played is the same)
Honestly, it's not really that different. The risk is the same. Specifically, the bankroll requirements are identical for a single player as they are for a full team of 16 players. The main advantage to team play is that the bankroll can be shared between 16 people, instead of 16 people each needing their own full bankroll. But that concept applies even if the team members are playing different machines with different jackpots.
Note that just because you guarantee that you hit the RF, there is no guarantee that you win money. You can still be down a lot. You can go many, many cycles before you hit it. Being guaranteed the jackpot is no consolation when you lose 5 jackpots worth of money before you hit it.
Quote: RSRight. But the certainty of a solo play is lower than a team play. After all, other (non teammate) players hitting the royal is a very real possibility.
I really don't think that that matters. Whether or not this current bet is a good bet is unrelated to whether you will get another chance to make the same bet again. (Each hand is a separate bet).
I'm not sure why you keep pointing out the certainty of the royal. The goal is to make money, not to hit that particular royal. Are you thinking that it reduces swings? It doesn't.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI really don't think that that matters. Whether or not this current bet is a good bet is unrelated to whether you will get another chance to make the same bet again. (Each hand is a separate bet).
I'm not sure why you keep pointing out the certainty of the royal. The goal is to make money, not to hit that particular royal. Are you thinking that it reduces swings? It doesn't.
Good point. Not sure what exactly I was thinking about the certainty. My thought was more of swingyness per play and not per bet. Or rather, you get to the long run quicker with more players.
It will take you a certain number of hands to hit a royal. The exact number is different every time, so we can express it as a random variable. This random variable might have a mean of 40,000 or so (depending on the game).
Now, if you lock up all 16 seats, that does not reduce the number of hands to hit the royal. It reduces it time-wise, but that's just due to the parallelism of playing 16 machines at once. So, if you have a team that locks up an entire bank whenever the game goes positive EV, and you have a single player who hops around and plays just one machine in a bank whenever it goes positive EV, the team and player are both going to have the same expectation, and the same variance per hand. They will have the same expected number of royals between hands. They will have the same number of much-shorter-than-expected cycles, and the same number of much-longer-than-expected cycles. The team is playing 16 hands in parallel, so they are going to hit these numbers much quicker (time-wise). Both the team and the individual player have the exact same bankroll requirements (as determined by application of the Kelly Criterion), and, really (no, really) that is all that matters.
The team is not guaranteed to make money on one play any more than the individual is guaranteed to make money over the course of 16 plays. The only difference is that everything is condensed 16-to-1, so the "long run" gets there a lot faster (time-wise) for the team. The other difference is that the entire team needs the same total bankroll as the individual player, which means that each team member can show up with 1/16 of the money as the individual. However, if the denom is fixed, and each one of the 16 players is properly bankrolled for the game on their own, they gain nothing from forming a team.
The reason that team play is powerful is that you can share bankrolls. In a game where you can pick your bet amount, this is huge! If I can make $100 per hour alone in a game where my bet size is limited by my bankroll, and I join up with 15 other people to form a team and share a bankroll, and the betting limits allow us to raise ours bets by 16x, we can now afford to do so, and we now EACH make $1600 per hour on the same bankroll! But, if the denom is fixed (so we can't take advantage of the pooled bankroll by increasing our bets) then we gain nothing (again, assuming that we were all properly bankrolled from the start)
I 100% understand you don't need all the seats to have value that's obvious. If everyone is contributing to the meter and you play until it hits its all the same. If its over 100% then you have value while you are playing no matter what, I get that. If you knew no one would jump in, you could start playing at a lower number.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYes, you definitely lose value when other people jump in.
To be clear, each hand has the same EV regardless of how many people are playing, but you will play fewer hands if more people are playing.
My point is just that you don't need a team to play. Locking up all 16 seats is worth 16x as much as playing 1 seat, but playing 1 seat still has positive expectation. Also, if everyone on your team gets an equal cut, then this is a wash (since you make 16x as much but have to split it 16 ways).
But when you are playing for meter movement and you push the meter up and then every one jumps in you lose a good deal of value.
Let say you sat down and the progressive number made the game 95.4% add in a 5% meter movement theoretically you could play it at a .4% advantage If people could not jump in. But if you always start low and people jump in when its high its a losing proposition.
If you are a small team or solo you need to factor this all in to the play.
Quote:The only difference is that everything is condensed 16-to-1, so the "long run" gets there a lot faster (time-wise) for the team.
This is what I meant. You get to the long run quicker, time wise, with a team.
Playing by yourself against 15 randoms, you're going to experience more variance than if you play by yourself with 15 open seats, and that will have more variance than playing with 15 team members, time wise. Not hours played necessarily, but time between plays as well. (ie: The game goes positive once a month.)
So 10 machines x 400 hands per hour = 10 hours to play 40,000 hands. Sounds doable. Hopefully the RF hits within that time frame.
Quote: AxelWolfI 100% understand you don't need all the seats to have value that's obvious. If everyone is contributing to the meter and you play until it hits its all the same. If its over 100% then you have value while you are playing no matter what, I get that. If you knew no one would jump in, you could start playing at a lower number.
But when you are playing for meter movement and you push the meter up and then every one jumps in you lose a good deal of value.
Let say you sat down and the progressive number made the game 95.4% add in a 5% meter movement theoretically you could play it at a .4% advantage If people could not jump in. But if you always start low and people jump in when its high its a losing proposition.
If you are a small team or solo you need to factor this all in to the play.
Ok, now I see your point. It's actually kind of interesting because if the seats are all full and everyone is playing at the same speed it's profitable for everyone (whether you are a team or not) but you get an even bigger edge per hand by playing slower than everybody else.
Quote: AxelWolfI 100% understand you don't need all the seats to have value that's obvious. If everyone is contributing to the meter and you play until it hits its all the same. If its over 100% then you have value while you are playing no matter what, I get that. If you knew no one would jump in, you could start playing at a lower number.
But when you are playing for meter movement and you push the meter up and then every one jumps in you lose a good deal of value.
Let say you sat down and the progressive number made the game 95.4% add in a 5% meter movement theoretically you could play it at a .4% advantage If people could not jump in. But if you always start low and people jump in when its high its a losing proposition.
If you are a small team or solo you need to factor this all in to the play.
I used to play against Winston's team at the Cal Neva in Reno. They only took half the seats so as to not draw heat. There were quarter multi-game progressives in the bartops, with 9/6 Jacks being the best game, in the Virginian, the Keno Bar, and the Skywalk. The meters in the Virginian and the Keno Bar ran at 1.5%, the Skywalk bartops had a 2% meter. Winston's number was $2300. I could have played lower than that but didn't want to hammer the meter up and then have to compete against the team. So I waited until the meter hit $2300 like they did.
Quote: PBguyCurrently $31,405+ I played a few more hands today but didn't hit it. Still no heat. I was the only one playing it.
Why would there be heat?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceWhy would there be heat?
I think he meant no teams
Quote: GWAEI think he meant no teams
Oh. That part is a little strange.
You should have said.Quote: PBguyCurrently $31,405+ I played a few more hands today but didn't hit it. Still no heat. I was the only one playing it.
Currently $31,405+ I played a few more hands today but didn't hit it. LOTS of heat. And its hard to get a seat. Don't bother coming. If they are verified as random and it keeps growing I can guarantee there will be teams of AP's at least putting in some time on it.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceLet me try to explain this a bit better, since I think that a lot of people are misunderstanding what I'm saying, and misunderstand the math involved, which is subtle and non-obvious.
I understand your point(s). But you missed one very important difference between team play and solo play.
When a team locks up all machines, they don't leave until they hit the royal. No matter how much money or time needed to get there.
From the jackpot's point of view, the team has unlimited bankroll and time.
And during this period, all contributions to the progressive carry no risk, because they will get them back when they hit the royal
(it doesn't matter it takes 5 royal cycles or just 100 hands).
So the +EV is guaranteed because the +EV relies on the super big royal payout.
But for solo player, you can't guarantee anything even if mathematically you have the same +EV.
Another points is that people talking about "in the long run, it will even out".
Again, mathematically it is true.
But, there is no long run! The +EV opportunities don't come very often.
Talking about this big royal in this particular casino, next time you see the royal so high, it may be 5 years later.
In other words, you don't have much chance to "even out".
It's like if you hit the royal, you get it. If you someone else hits it, you never see it again.
Yes all true however, if you are a solo AP you will also find other progressives or plays. They may be better, they may not be as good but, you will get in the long run with other plays, you cant worry about that.Quote: pokerfaceI understand your point(s). But you missed one very important difference between team play and solo play.
When a team locks up all machines, they don't leave until they hit the royal. No matter how much money or time needed to get there.
From the jackpot's point of view, the team has unlimited bankroll and time.
And during this period, all contributions to the progressive carry no risk, because they will get them back when they hit the royal
(it doesn't matter it takes 5 royal cycles or just 100 hands).
So the +EV is guaranteed because the +EV relies on the super big royal payout.
But for solo player, you can't guarantee anything even if mathematically you have the same +EV.
Another points is that people talking about "in the long run, it will even out".
Again, mathematically it is true.
But, there is no long run! The +EV opportunities don't come very often.
Talking about this big royal in this particular casino, next time you see the royal so high, it may be 5 years later.
In other words, you don't have much chance to "even out".
It's like if you hit the royal, you get it. If you someone else hits it, you never see it again.
My point was, I don't want to be the first one on running up the meter for others to come in and snap up all my meter movement.
Does anyone else live near by that casino? If so please contact me via PM.
Quote: PBguyJackpot up to $32,150. Shows you how little play it's getting when the progressive only moves a few hundred per day.
Yeah pretty crazy.
Axelwolf I sent you a PM
Quote: PBguy$34,440 today and no one playing except me. I managed to break even after about 100 hands so I cashed out.
That's $2290 in meter rise in 45 hours. With a 5% meter that's about $46000 in action. You put the picture of the $27,000 jackpot up just two weeks ago. Was that when it hit the last time? If it is then this play recycles quickly. This is a big time advantage play. PBguy, the next time it hits take note of where the meter resets.
Now that's what I call a jackpot!
Quote: PBguy^^^ No the jackpot had been building for a while. I have a feeling it resets to $4,000 or so. I base that on the fact that the same machines with a .25 JoB progressive resets to $1,000 on the progressive. It takes $2 min bet to qualify for the jackpot on those machines.
How fast is the meter on this .25 JoB progressive? Does it ever develop big numbers?
Quote: PBguy^^^ I've seen it get up over $5,000 which is when I start playing it. Usually it's more like $2,000+
If you post the payscale here I will analyze it for you an even put the strategy up.
When I looked Monday morning the progressive was $8,040 so now I'm not sure if it resets to $8,000 or something lower.
Quote: PBguySomeone hit it for just over $36,000 on Friday evening - they were dealt the RF.
When I looked Monday morning the progressive was $8,040 so now I'm not sure if it resets to $8,000 or something lower.
So we know it hit on June 30th. Let's see how long it takes to come back on a play. Keep us posted.
I was In California @ Rincon getting ready to go decided to wait. I'm sure glad I didn't.Quote: PBguySomeone hit it for just over $36,000 on Friday evening - they were dealt the RF.
When I looked Monday morning the progressive was $8,040 so now I'm not sure if it resets to $8,000 or something lower.