My Local Casino Double Bonus Strategy

Hi!
I've been playing video poker for about 2 years, and have been reading about it over on WoO for that long, but I am new to these forums. After posting my RF picture, I had some Q's about what I should be doing. So, I went over to WoO and entered my local Casino's game into the strategy calculator. I attempted to adjust the Payoff column to match those in the screenshot of the machine I won on. I rounded the RF payoff to $300.00, it is a nickel machine, and I bet the max (5 coins). Can you tell me if I did this correctly?

The result for the Basic Strategy Analysis is shown below. Is it correct that the final return numbers are close enough to each other that ignoring the exceptions is very much worth it?

Thanks so much for any replies.
BHD



February 9, 2014 Edited: To include the correct pay table values for FH and Flush (9/6)

Quote: BlackHawkDown

The result for the Basic Strategy Analysis is shown below. Is it correct that the final return numbers are close enough to each other that ignoring the exceptions is very much worth it?

I made this exact same mistake the fist time that I used this strategy calculator.

The "basic strategy" that it is referring to is one where you chase more Royals than usual, I think. It is not the basic strategy for the full pay game. Personally, I think that this terminology is extremely confusing. I think that when most people use this page they are looking for the value of strategy changes (ie, changes from the correct strategy in the non-progressive game) when the progressive gets large, and this gives them information that is easily misinterpreted.

To be sure, enter the same paytable, with an 800-bet payoff for RF. Check to see if the probability for a RF goes down. (Obviously, if the probability for a royal changes, you must be using a different strategy)

Thanks!

I tried to go back to the calculator, but ended up at a slightly different place. I had made a mistake in my previous post wherein I left the FH/FL ratio incorrect for my local game.
I went back and tried to enter it correctly and get a comparison.




For comparison, i changed only the top pay for RF in this shot:

You can see that when you raise the payout of the RF, the probability goes from 0.000025 to 0.000029. That implies that the table is calculated using a different strategy (since, obviously, the same strategy yields the same number of RFs)

Thanks!

What is the significance of the variance almost tripling?

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I made this exact same mistake the fist time that I used this strategy calculator.

The "basic strategy" that it is referring to is one where you chase more Royals than usual, I think.

The Basic Strategy table refers to using the basic strategy presented below the two tables, ignoring the exceptions.

The Perfect Strategy table refers to using 100% optimal strategy (the basic strategy shown below, and all of the exceptions to the basic strategy).

Quote: JB

The Basic Strategy table refers to using the basic strategy presented below the two tables, ignoring the exceptions.

The Perfect Strategy table refers to using 100% optimal strategy (the basic strategy shown below, and all of the exceptions to the basic strategy).

Thanks!
And the difference in return for following basic strategy versus following perfect strategy in the case I illustrate above is:
0.996318 - 0.996268 = 0.00005, a 0.005 percent difference (0.005%). That doesn't sound like enough of a difference for me to worry about. I am somewhat of a regular player, I go maybe once per month at most. Not trying to make a living here, but I do enjoy picking a strategy and sticking with it. And although I do not understand them all, I do love numbers!

BHD

Quote: BlackHawkDown

Thanks!
And the difference in return for following basic strategy versus following perfect strategy in the case I illustrate above is:
0.996318 - 0.996268 = 0.00005, a 0.005 percent difference (0.005%). That doesn't sound like enough of a difference for me to worry about. I am somewhat of a regular player, I go maybe once per month at most. Not trying to make a living here, but I do enjoy picking a strategy and sticking with it. And although I do not understand them all, I do love numbers! BHD

Blackhawk, I used the $275 royal to run the numbers on this game. Discounting out the meters the game returns 98.62%.

CLOCKING THE METERS:

You will have to catch the bank when no one is playing. For each meter, bet one coin at a time until you flip the meter one penny. Then count down the number of games it takes to flip it another penny. If it takes 20 coins of bet to flip it one penny then you have a 1% meter. 40 coins and it is a .5% meter, 60 coins it is a .3333% meter, etc. From the numbers in your picture it appears the meter speeds are pretty good for the base payback of the game, 98.62%.

If all the meters are running at the same speed then 4 Aces is definitely the key meter here, since it has the shortest cycle, 4461. This is where most of the advantage plays will develop. So now we have to determine how high the 4 Aces has to be to bring the game up to 100%.

4461 X 25 cents X 1.38% = $15.39

The 4 Aces starts at $40.

$40 + $15.39 = $55.39

When you find the 4 Aces at $55.39 then the advantage is the 4 Aces meter speed, plus the extra money in the straight flush and royal flush, and you have equity in those meters too.

Quote: JB

The Basic Strategy table refers to using the basic strategy presented below the two tables, ignoring the exceptions.

The Perfect Strategy table refers to using 100% optimal strategy (the basic strategy shown below, and all of the exceptions to the basic strategy).

Thanks. I understand that now.

I think that many people, upon seeing this for the first time, will think that "basic strategy" refers to the strategy of the game with the unedited paytable, and "exceptions" refers to the strategy changes that you make as a result of the edits to the paytable. That's what I thought, and that seems to be what the OP in this thread thought as well.

Most people probably use this calculator for progressives (since there are already strategy tables for just about any non-progressive paytable that you are likely to find elsewhere on WoO). So, the question that I think most users are looking to answer is, "What strategy changes should I make when the meter is this high, and how much of a difference do these changes make?"

Don't get me wrong -- I find the resource to be incredibly useful. I just think that the wording is a little bit confusing.

Quote: BlackHawkDown

Thanks!

What is the significance of the variance almost tripling?

The significance is that you are much more likely to lose, and therefore you need a bigger bankroll..

I find that it's useful to calculate your EV not counting royals, and then make note of the frequency of a royal using your strategy.

For example, if the game returns 101%, but royals contribute 3.5% of that return, and you get a royal once every 35,000 hands, then, even though your EV is positive, you will be losing at a 2.5% clip between royals, and royals only come along once every 70 hours of play (if you are playing 500 hands/hr -- adjust based on your speed of play).

So, for example, if you play 20,000 hands and don't hit the royal, and then someone else hits it (so you have to stop playing) you are likely to be down 2.5% of 100,000 coins = 2500 coins. If you are playing for nickels that's $125; if you're playing a $5 machine that is $12,500. Of course that is just EV; the numbers could be different.

Your play is all positive EV so it will all work out in the end; my point is just that you need to have the bankroll to withstand the swings, which, for progressives, includes walking away and waiting for the progressive to grow to the point where it's playable again.

To play progressives optimally you need to create a dynamic strategy that changes based on the level of the meters. For example at a 4000 coin Royal it's better to hold a pair of jacks over 'AJT' but if the Royal is over 4700 coins the correct play is to draw for the royal.

Also all these numbers and calculations give you the theoretical return of the game but assume you're playing alone on the bank of machines. In my experience playing with others will actually increase your EV per hour for 2 reasons.

1) Some players play short coin and thus will contribute to the progressives but never hit them. One time while playing a dollar progressive a woman sitting next me hit a royal flush but was only betting 2 coins, she won $500 instead of $11,000. A few hours later I hit the jackpot that should have rightfully been hers.

2)Very few players adjust their strategies based on the level of the meters and usually play too passively. Playing a dynamic strategy will shorten your cycle length and allow you hit a higher percentage of the jackpots, in a sense stealing their contributions.

That being said it is a nickel machine so the most you can make is probably around $5 an hour.

Quote: mickeycrimm

Blackhawk, I used the $275 royal to run the numbers on this game. Discounting out the meters the game returns 98.62%.

CLOCKING THE METERS:

You will have to catch the bank when no one is playing. For each meter, bet one coin at a time until you flip the meter one penny. Then count down the number of games it takes to flip it another penny. If it takes 20 coins of bet to flip it one penny then you have a 1% meter. 40 coins and it is a .5% meter, 60 coins it is a .3333% meter, etc. From the numbers in your picture it appears the meter speeds are pretty good for the base payback of the game, 98.62%.

If all the meters are running at the same speed then 4 Aces is definitely the key meter here, since it has the shortest cycle, 4461. This is where most of the advantage plays will develop. So now we have to determine how high the 4 Aces has to be to bring the game up to 100%.

4461 X 25 cents X 1.38% = $15.39

The 4 Aces starts at $40.

$40 + $15.39 = $55.39

When you find the 4 Aces at $55.39 then the advantage is the 4 Aces meter speed, plus the extra money in the straight flush and royal flush, and you have equity in those meters too.

hi!
Took a trip to the casino yesterday.
For grins, the Double Bonus machine bank I play had progressive jackpots of:
RF: 255.28
SF: 15.46
4A: 42.38


I clocked the Royal Flush rate as 20 coins, or 1%
I clocked the Straight Flush rate as 30 coins, or 0.667%
I clocked the 4 Aces rate as 80 coins, or 0.25%

While clocking these meters, I hit three 4OAK but I was only playing one coin (in order do the counting...)

BHD

Quote: BlackHawkDown

hi!
Took a trip to the casino yesterday.
For grins, the Double Bonus machine bank I play had progressive jackpots of:
RF: 255.28
SF: 15.46
4A: 42.38


I clocked the Royal Flush rate as 20 coins, or 1%
I clocked the Straight Flush rate as 30 coins, or 0.667%
I clocked the 4 Aces rate as 80 coins, or 0.25%

While clocking these meters, I hit three 4OAK but I was only playing one coin (in order do the counting...)BHD

So it looks like the straight flush resets to $12.50 and the 4 Aces resets to $40. But now we know the royal doesn't reset at $275. Normally, on a progressive like this the royal would reset at $200, but I think you believe it resets higher than that. Hopefully that is the case. With the meter speeds involved most of the advantage plays will come off the royal flush meter, followed by the straight flush meter.

If the royal resets to $200 that would put the base game at 97.81%. Adding the meter speeds brings the game up 99.7%. But here is the problem. If you are playing lower numbers than everyone else, then the royal gets high and the bank fills up with players until the royal goes then you can't claim all of the meter speed, only a fraction of it.

A $400 royal would put the game up to about 100%, plus the extra money in the straight flush and the 4 Aces, plus the meter speeds totaling 1.92%.

As a rule of thumb finding an extra $3 in the 4 Aces meter adds 0.25% to the game (actual number is $2.79). So if you were to find the 4 Aces meter at $46 then just a $300 royal would be advantage, at least until the 4 Aces get hit.

If it were me I would play the minimum risk strategy on this game. That's the strategy based on a 4000 coin royal. If you try to play Max E.V. there are a ton of breakpoints pertaining to the royal and straight flush hands you are going to have to commit to memory. I like to keep things simple. With that said the royal frequency is 40,894, straight flush frequency is 9205 and the four aces frequency is 4462.

As a rule of thumb an extra $6 in the straight flush meter adds 0.25% to the game. The actual number is $5.75. So when you find the straight flush meter doubled up to about $25 then a $300 royal would be an advantage play, at least until the straight flush gets hit.

Quote: mickeycrimm

So it looks like the straight flush resets to $12.50 and the 4 Aces resets to $40. But now we know the royal doesn't reset at $275. Normally, on a progressive like this the royal would reset at $200, but I think you believe it resets higher than that. Hopefully that is the case. With the meter speeds involved most of the advantage plays will come off the royal flush meter, followed by the straight flush meter.

Yes, I remember thinking it would reset to $200, but I distinctly recall seeing an oddball number, like 280-ish or something like that. Since we saw it below 280 yesterday, I am guessing it was 250-ish. If I ever get the chance to see a reset jackpot again, I will write it down. I am curious as to the reset value for all three progressives on that Machine bank (RF, SF, 4OAK).

Thanks again for all of your input!
BHD

Quote: BlackHawkDown

I am curious as to the reset value for all three progressives on that Machine bank (RF, SF, 4OAK).

Thanks again for all of your input!
BHD

Although it's possible to be a bigger reset than $200, I wouldn't count on it. Because a vast majority of progressives start at 4000 credits and the meter speeds you clocked would make the game positive in the long run with a bigger royal seed than 4000 credits. Many states not named Nevada forbid games that offer > 100% return. Also in many states not named Nevada, it would be amazing to find a nickel progressive this good. Most I see are crappy 6/5 bonus games with a 10-coin royal being $410 with a garbage meter in the Midwest/ Gulf Coast riverboat circuit.

Quote: BlackHawkDown

Yes, I remember thinking it would reset to $200, but I distinctly recall seeing an oddball number, like 280-ish or something like that.

Do "backup" meters still exist anywhere? That's where two jackpot amounts are maintained, but only the higher amount pays off. The lesser amount then becomes the new primary jackpot. The result is that the progressive as displayed would reset at a different amount each time. (I probably didn't explain that very well.)

I play live poker so I get it at least. ;) I don't think I've seen it for VP tho