Is this a good payout table for jacks or better?

Quote: mickeycrimm

TK, I'm not mad or jealous or any of that stuff you have in your mind. I just asked a few questions. So far you have avoided answering them.

I didn't see it Mr. Crimm. So please put down whatever you have in your hand and read.

$3 per spin.
I don't add up my spins.
This was an 8.2% advantage mathematically going in. Isn't that what you vp players trumpet about, what the probabilities are BEFORE you play?
In a slot ap's world who uses every advantage afforded and then some even if it's not on the up & up, it only matters what the results are upon completion of the play. This particular one cost me $4800. I'm ahead over $150000 lifetime doing this.
I was told some nobody woman hit it while I slept. Anything can happen. It's gambling.

Quote: tournamentking

I was told some nobody woman hit it while I slept. Anything can happen. It's gambling.

There's another good example of why a team is necessary for some plays, if you are talking about a stand-alone Progressive. Individuals sleep, but teams don't sleep.

That's the main reason I stopped doing certain Video Keno games at an advantage, I don't have a teammate for that out here and I have a regular job I have to go to. Hitting seven out of seven on Video Keno is a 1 in 40,000+ shot, but even slamming that button as fast as I can, I might not have time for 1-94,358 plays, if that's how it goes.

94,358 plays, by the way, is the exact number of plays it takes for me to have a 90% probability of hitting the 7:7 at least once, which is all I need 90% of the time, 10% of the time (if that is what you are going after) it will take more plays than that.

The EV is still there, though, which means that, if I play that Seven Spot at an advantage enough times, even if I don't take down every individual occurrence of a positive Progressive, I'll still hit it (playing at an advantage) enough times to make up for it in the long run.

Like I said, though, as a recreational player, I got sick of running out of time and having to walk away in the hole only to go back the next day and find that someone hit one of the Progressives. (They're all the same $$$ amount, just depends on how many balls you select how many you need to hit, on the machine to which I refer).

So, that happens, and I have to wait for it to be at an advantage all over again. I don't do that anymore, I pretty much stick to low-risk, low-return plays, but everything I do now is comparatively also low-time, or at a minimum, there's a quantifiable upper bound to how long it will take, which suits me as an individual recreational player.

I understand and it makes sense. But why am I thinking if it were ME who said I played keno at an advantage, the zingers would be flying.

Quote: tournamentking

I understand and it makes sense. But why am I thinking if it were ME who said I played keno at an advantage, the zingers would be flying.

No because the math makes perfect sense. It is quite easy to find out the exact odds of getting 0/7 1/7 all the way up to 7/7 and then you use that information to see whether you have an advantage or not. Very mathematical. The problem is you're not describing how you are deriving an advantage. How do you know when you have an advantage. Saying the jackpot looks big is meaningless since you don't know what the probability of getting jackpot is and you don't know what base return is.

Quote: tournamentking

I understand and it makes sense. But why am I thinking if it were ME who said I played keno at an advantage, the zingers would be flying.

Because you won't or can't show the math that proves you would have an advantage.

Prove you have an advantage please, that's all we want. You, like gr8player and Varmenti say a lot about nothing, all while claiming you have an advantage.

Just name one play where you had an advantage and why you had an advantage.

Quote: tournamentking

I understand and it makes sense. But why am I thinking if it were ME who said I played keno at an advantage, the zingers would be flying.

No, it's just that when you want to make a claim that you are playing at an advantage, it must be demonstrated.

Here's an example:

Pick 7

Bet = $0.50 (1 Unit)

Base Pays:

Catch Three: 1
Catch Four: 6
Catch Five: 25
Catch Six: 250
Catch Seven: 500

Base Expected Return: 0.899322111347428

Okay, so the Base Pay for a Catch Seven is $250 and is 1.22% of the return. In the case of this game:

1 - 0.899322111347428 = x

0.10067788865 = x

Thus, I need to make up that amount in Expected Return.

The probability of Seven out of Seven is:

0.000024402556048

Thus:

0.000024402556048 * x = 0.10067788865

x = 4125.71078423

Okay, so that is the necessary increase (in units) for the machine to return exactly 100%, let's try it:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/keno/calculator/

Adding the 500 Base Units back in and rounding up to 4625.711 while keeping everything else the same yields:

1.000000005263296

Therefore, if $250 is the Base Pay for a $0.50 bet, the Progressive Meter (Not including Points or Meter Increases, which will apply in many cases) must be at 250 + (4625.711/2) = $2,562.86 for the machine to be returning over 100%.

Now, when you get into slot points, kick backs, rebates...and of course...the increase to the Progressive Meter itself (the value is continuously increasing as you play) an actual positive play point will actually be lower than this, considerably lower on multiplier days, in fact, depending on the multiplier.

Wheeling Island Hotel, Casino, Racetrack, for example, gives you 1 point per $5 wagered, and 100 points are worth $1 comp or Free Play. That means you gamble $500 and they give you $1 back, (not including any other offers) so that adds 1/500 = .002 ER to any machine you play. However, let's say that you got to do a special promotion, and now you are getting 15x points that day...

What's that, can't happen?

First of all, at Gold, I automatically get 8x points on certain days, but now they have a promotion for up to 21x points based on the greatest amount of snow (in inches) for a 24-hour period that gets the points multiplier based on the snow the following week.

Stupid, I know.

But, say we get fifteen inches in 24 hours, there's a 15x multiplier during that 24-hour period the following week.

Okay, so now I' be at .002 * 15 = .03 which is effectively 3% cash back!

Okay, so now (not including any other offers) this Keno game is good at 97%, which is:

0.10067788865 - .03 = 0.07067788865

0.000024402556048 * x = 0.07067788865

x = 2896.33137246 Units, which is:

250 + (2896.33137246/2) = 1698.16568623

Okay, so now the machine is good if the meter is at $1,698.17, not considering Progressive increases or other comps.

And...there will be other comps. If this thing takes as long to hit as it probably should, I'm going to generate a tremendous amount of play and a tremendous theoretical loss, as far as they're concerned, and get awesome Free Play as a result.

But, I don't base a play on unknowns, just readily quantifiable factors. I would base the increase to the Progressive, though, I just didn't include that in my example for the sake of simplicity. If you plan on staying until you hit the Progressive, then you're getting that money back, anyway.

Impossible?

Okay, if the machine starts at $250, and let's say you get $0.01 added every time it misses, to hit $1698.17 it would have to miss 144817 times from previous hit, which has a probability of:

(1 - 0.000024402556048)^144817 = 0.02918944586

Which is 2.91%, but when you have 20+ such machines that are all stand-alone progressives, you find that sometimes.

Make sure you always use your Player's Club Card, though, if you are going for Progressives, it opens up a lot of plays that would otherwise be -ER.

Quote: Mission146

No, it's just that when you want to make a claim that you are playing at an advantage, it must be demonstrated.

Here's an example:

Pick 7

Bet = $0.50 (1 Unit)

Base Pays:

Catch Three: 1
Catch Four: 6
Catch Five: 25
Catch Six: 250
Catch Seven: 500

Base Expected Return: 0.899322111347428

Okay, so the Base Pay for a Catch Seven is $250 and is 1.22% of the return. In the case of this game:

1 - 0.899322111347428 = x

0.10067788865 = x

Thus, I need to make up that amount in Expected Return.

The probability of Seven out of Seven is:

0.000024402556048

Thus:

0.000024402556048 * x = 0.10067788865

x = 4125.71078423

Okay, so that is the necessary increase (in units) for the machine to return exactly 100%, let's try it:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/keno/calculator/

Adding the 500 Base Units back in and rounding up to 4625.711 while keeping everything else the same yields:

1.000000005263296

Therefore, if $250 is the Base Pay for a $0.50 bet, the Progressive Meter (Not including Points or Meter Increases, which will apply in many cases) must be at 250 + (4625.711/2) = $2,562.86 for the machine to be returning over 100%.

Now, when you get into slot points, kick backs, rebates...and of course...the increase to the Progressive Meter itself (the value is continuously increasing as you play) an actual positive play point will actually be lower than this, considerably lower on multiplier days, in fact, depending on the multiplier.

Wheeling Island Hotel, Casino, Racetrack, for example, gives you 1 point per $5 wagered, and 100 points are worth $1 comp or Free Play. That means you gamble $500 and they give you $1 back, (not including any other offers) so that adds 1/500 = .002 ER to any machine you play. However, let's say that you got to do a special promotion, and now you are getting 15x points that day...

What's that, can't happen?

First of all, at Gold, I automatically get 8x points on certain days, but now they have a promotion for up to 21x points based on the greatest amount of snow (in inches) for a 24-hour period that gets the points multiplier based on the snow the following week.

Stupid, I know.

But, say we get fifteen inches in 24 hours, there's a 15x multiplier during that 24-hour period the following week.

Okay, so now I' be at .002 * 15 = .03 which is effectively 3% cash back!

Okay, so now (not including any other offers) this Keno game is good at 97%, which is:

0.10067788865 - .03 = 0.07067788865

0.000024402556048 * x = 0.07067788865

x = 2896.33137246 Units, which is:

250 + (2896.33137246/2) = 1698.16568623

Okay, so now the machine is good if the meter is at $1,698.17, not considering Progressive increases or other comps.

And...there will be other comps. If this thing takes as long to hit as it probably should, I'm going to generate a tremendous amount of play and a tremendous theoretical loss, as far as they're concerned, and get awesome Free Play as a result.

But, I don't base a play on unknowns, just readily quantifiable factors. I would base the increase to the Progressive, though, I just didn't include that in my example for the sake of simplicity. If you plan on staying until you hit the Progressive, then you're getting that money back, anyway.

Impossible?

Okay, if the machine starts at $250, and let's say you get $0.01 added every time it misses, to hit $1698.17 it would have to miss 144817 times from previous hit, which has a probability of:

(1 - 0.000024402556048)^144817 = 0.02918944586

Which is 2.91%, but when you have 20+ such machines that are all stand-alone progressives, you find that sometimes.

Make sure you always use your Player's Club Card, though, if you are going for Progressives, it opens up a lot of plays that would otherwise be -ER.

OMG mission, you just made his brain explode.

Quote: AxelWolf

OMG mission, you just made his brain explode.

LOL

He should get that, a positive Video Keno Progressive is one of the most basic plays there is!

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: Mission146

No, it's just that when you want to make a claim that you are playing at an advantage, it must be demonstrated.

Here's an example:

Pick 7

Bet = $0.50 (1 Unit)

Base Pays:

Catch Three: 1
Catch Four: 6
Catch Five: 25
Catch Six: 250
Catch Seven: 500

Base Expected Return: 0.899322111347428

Okay, so the Base Pay for a Catch Seven is $250 and is 1.22% of the return. In the case of this game:

1 - 0.899322111347428 = x

0.10067788865 = x

Thus, I need to make up that amount in Expected Return.

The probability of Seven out of Seven is:

0.000024402556048

Thus:

0.000024402556048 * x = 0.10067788865

x = 4125.71078423

Okay, so that is the necessary increase (in units) for the machine to return exactly 100%, let's try it:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/keno/calculator/

Adding the 500 Base Units back in and rounding up to 4625.711 while keeping everything else the same yields:

1.000000005263296

Therefore, if $250 is the Base Pay for a $0.50 bet, the Progressive Meter (Not including Points or Meter Increases, which will apply in many cases) must be at 250 + (4625.711/2) = $2,562.86 for the machine to be returning over 100%.

Now, when you get into slot points, kick backs, rebates...and of course...the increase to the Progressive Meter itself (the value is continuously increasing as you play) an actual positive play point will actually be lower than this, considerably lower on multiplier days, in fact, depending on the multiplier.

Wheeling Island Hotel, Casino, Racetrack, for example, gives you 1 point per $5 wagered, and 100 points are worth $1 comp or Free Play. That means you gamble $500 and they give you $1 back, (not including any other offers) so that adds 1/500 = .002 ER to any machine you play. However, let's say that you got to do a special promotion, and now you are getting 15x points that day...

What's that, can't happen?

First of all, at Gold, I automatically get 8x points on certain days, but now they have a promotion for up to 21x points based on the greatest amount of snow (in inches) for a 24-hour period that gets the points multiplier based on the snow the following week.

Stupid, I know.

But, say we get fifteen inches in 24 hours, there's a 15x multiplier during that 24-hour period the following week.

Okay, so now I' be at .002 * 15 = .03 which is effectively 3% cash back!

Okay, so now (not including any other offers) this Keno game is good at 97%, which is:

0.10067788865 - .03 = 0.07067788865

0.000024402556048 * x = 0.07067788865

x = 2896.33137246 Units, which is:

250 + (2896.33137246/2) = 1698.16568623

Okay, so now the machine is good if the meter is at $1,698.17, not considering Progressive increases or other comps.

And...there will be other comps. If this thing takes as long to hit as it probably should, I'm going to generate a tremendous amount of play and a tremendous theoretical loss, as far as they're concerned, and get awesome Free Play as a result.

But, I don't base a play on unknowns, just readily quantifiable factors. I would base the increase to the Progressive, though, I just didn't include that in my example for the sake of simplicity. If you plan on staying until you hit the Progressive, then you're getting that money back, anyway.

Impossible?

Okay, if the machine starts at $250, and let's say you get $0.01 added every time it misses, to hit $1698.17 it would have to miss 144817 times from previous hit, which has a probability of:

(1 - 0.000024402556048)^144817 = 0.02918944586

Which is 2.91%, but when you have 20+ such machines that are all stand-alone progressives, you find that sometimes.

Make sure you always use your Player's Club Card, though, if you are going for Progressives, it opens up a lot of plays that would otherwise be -ER.

OMG mission, you just made his brain explode.

Mine too...I am good at math when I actually put my mind to it but this just confuses me as to what you are doing, does the WoO site explain all of this and is there anything I can read to further my knowledge of this. I believe it would greatly improve my game knowing all of this information. Please send me a PM with your suggestions, I don't want to hijack this thread. Thanks.

Quote: Mission146

LOL

He should get that, a positive Video Keno Progressive is one of the most basic plays there is!

That's just the thing, a REAL AP's do not need an explanation, from a REAL AP, they just know what your talking about, very little explanation is needed.

Quote: Transcend

Mine too...I am good at math when I actually put my mind to it but this just confuses me as to what you are doing, does the WoO site explain all of this and is there anything I can read to further my knowledge of this. I believe it would greatly improve my game knowing all of this information. Please send me a PM with your suggestions, I don't want to hijack this thread. Thanks.

I don't know to what extent WoO goes into with respect to Video Keno Progressives, comp dollars, and stuff of that nature.

The main thing is that plays such as the one I described would be a complete waste of Wizard's time compared to what he could actually make doing something else, and with the sort of bankroll he is working with. This is a really good play if your main goal is to generate comps, because on an hourly basis, what I just described would only be worth it to a few professionals, mainly, if they wanted to get rooms or food offers in addition to the comp dollars.

This is the sort of thing that a professional AP would do to generate slots play and build tier status, if he felt that there was value there. In terms of $$$/hour, what I described is very bad and only playable if there really isn't anything else there.

If not for that reason, then you would express your advantage as hard money, determine an expected number of plays to hit that 7:7 Progressive, or just use the actual odds, determine how many plays you can get in an hour and do something like this:

Expected Number of Plays/Theoretical Plays Per Hour = Time expended in Hours

Hard Money Advantage/Time Expended in Hours = $$$ per Hour

Imagine I had a Progressive Keno play that I determined had an expectation of +$150. Now, I'm going to do straight odds and say it will take me 1/0.000024402556048 = 40,979 plays to hit the progressive, (In reality, 40,979 plays gives me a 63.2% chance of hitting, but I'm going for simplicity, here). Okay, now let's imagine I have timed myself for a minute at top speed, multiplied by sixty, and determined I can get an average of 1,200 plays per hour (sipping a drink, eventually tiring, you know the drill).

40979/1200 = 34.15 Hours

150/34.15 = $4.39/hour

As you can see, the play is not worth that much, but if my hard cash advantage is +$1,500, now it's worth $43.90/hour, so always worth looking for.

I don't mind not sleeping for an expected 34 hours for $43.90/hour, but this again illustrates some of the advantages inherent in team play.

Anyway...

Any general questions about this sort of thing (within my abilities) I would prefer to answer publicly so all of our friends here can read it and know what to look for. If you have a specific play you'd like to know about, please send me a PM.

The only thing is, don't send a PM about any Progressive other than a must-hit or a Progressive for which the probabilities are readily known. I really try to guess as little as possible, even when I think I know what I am doing, I'm still prone (as in anyone) to an occasional mistake.

You can also read about two of my other favorite plays by using the search function and looking up, "Rock Around the Clock," and, "Venice Nights."

Those are two plays for which I don't know the probabilities, but unless I am the luckiest person alive, Venice Nights has thoroughly passed my Empirical Verifiability Test. I'm still withholding judgment on Rock Around the Clock, I'm still not convinced 9:00 is good enough, but I play it.

Actually, in my first Mathy post, I did the $250 twice, so it would actually have to be:

(4625.711/2) = 2312.8555 with no points or anything else, and:

1698.16568623 is still correct for the 3% Cash Back because I didn't make that mistake with the $250 the second time, I left it out of the units increase.

I knew something seemed wrong with that huge disparity at only a 3% CB.

I didn't have any specific plays in mind I was more wanting to understand where the math comes from and further my knowledge of this so I can figure out myself for plays and what not. I more just want to learn it for myself so I can apply my knowledge and better my gaming experience and work my way to be a knowledgeable AP rather than a bumbling fool

Quote: Transcend

I didn't have any specific plays in mind I was more wanting to understand where the math comes from and further my knowledge of this so I can figure out myself for plays and what not. I more just want to learn it for myself so I can apply my knowledge and better my gaming experience and work my way to be a knowledgeable AP rather than a bumbling fool

You should probably avoid Keno then, plays are far and few between.

Quote: AxelWolf

You should probably avoid Keno then, plays are far and few between.

. He was just using keno as an example I have no real desire to play keno just to know how to derive the math to figure out if I should be playing a certain machine or not

Quote: AxelWolf

You should probably avoid Keno then, plays are far and few between.

You'd be very, very surprised at this casino.

The thing about the Keno play I am referring to is (even though I made up those paytables as I don't have the actual ones memorized) that you BEGIN to qualify for the Progressive at a $0.50 bet, but those betting more than $0.50, all the way up to $2.00, are feeding more into the Progressive Meter, in terms of cents per bet, but they are playing for the same Progressive.

In other words, I have an expected return 10% greater at a bet of $0.50 with the meter at $2,312.85, but, this is only

$2,312.85/2 = 1156.425 units for someone betting $2, so they are playing at:

So, their paytable would look like:

1
6
25
250
1156.425

A 91.5341% return, absent any cash back or anything.

Ouch. They're playing the same game I am, but I'm playing a much better return table.

Anyway, those people Max betting (or betting more than the $0.50) ramp that thing up very quickly. There are also bets of $2.25-$2.50, which do not qualify for the Progressive, for some reason, but are still feeding it.

The Progressive also only pays between $0.75-$2.00 bet if it would be better than the Base Pay in the first place, so it is otherwise inactive at those levels, so those are some 7:7 hits that do not alter the Progressive that those people are still feeding.

Finally, people betting less than $0.50 (of which there are many, especially at the $0.05 level) are also feeding the Progressive, and any 7:7 hits they get are also immaterial.

So, that 2.91% figure I quoted is not strictly true, but it's variable, and there's really no way to quantify what percentage of the time it will actually reach that kind of territory, but definitely more often than 2.91%.

Oh, yeah, there are also 20+ of these machines, three such games on each machine AND two different levels ($.05 and $.25) each of which has its own Progressives for each different game. They are all stand-alone.

Quote: Transcend

I didn't have any specific plays in mind I was more wanting to understand where the math comes from and further my knowledge of this so I can figure out myself for plays and what not. I more just want to learn it for myself so I can apply my knowledge and better my gaming experience and work my way to be a knowledgeable AP rather than a bumbling fool

Well, Video Keno Progressives are as easy as it gets, so you definitely want to make sure you understand what I am doing there. You also want to use Tools, because it is easier than having to figure out the Math for everything on Earth.

Here are my steps for a Video Keno Progressive:

1.) Break your bet down into units.

2.) Determine the Base Pay Return Percentage on WoO.

3.) Determine how much you need to make it 100%. This is simply 1 - the Base Return Percentage.

4.) Determine the probability of the necessary hit for the Progressive, which WoO hands you on a silver platter.

5.) Use formula: Probability of Occurrence * x = (1 - Base Return Percentage)

6.) x = The amount, in units, that there must be for that result IN ADDITION TO base units to be at 100%. If the result of this + BASE PAYS = 1+, then anything over 1 is your advantage.

That's it, you're done!!! If you need to figure out what you're getting back in comp dollars, and determine that to be 3%, then just add the 3% to the Base Return (.03 + Base Return) and follow the above using the result as the new Base Return.

Mission, are you Keno Lil?

Quote: tournamentking

Mission, are you Keno Lil?

No, I'm a hotel manager. I didn't even know who that was until I just looked it up.

I see Keno Lil wrote an article as early as 1990, I'd have been a damn smart six year old!!!

I have a few wongable keno progressive plays. I use a simple system to exploit them. One small play in particular is called the Montana Progressive. It's a 50 cent game where you can play either the five-spot, six-spot, seven-spot or eight-spot. The seven and eight-spots are never plays because the meter caps at $800 and the cost is way higher than that. The cost to produce the six-spot is $770 and the meter caps at $800 so it's never a play.

The five-spot is the only one that develops plays. The meter starts at $125 and runs .5%. My playable number is $180. If you do the math, with just a .5% meter running the ploppies would have to miss the five-spot for 14 cycles to put it on my playable number. That's just not going to happen. I would never get any plays. But what is going on is the bulk of the ploppies are playing the six-spot, seven-spot and eight-spot, ignoring the five-spot. And when they are playing it's moving the five-spot meter. That's why I get plays.

There are three things I want to know on this keno progressive:

1. How much is the bet
2. What is the frequency of the top line hit.
3. How much am I getting dropped for between top line hits.

In the above game the bet is 50 cents, the frequency for the top line hit is 1550.57. To get the drop between top line hits I go to the Wizard of Odds keno calculator. I can do keno math from scratch but it's a waste of time when I can use the Wizzes calculator. So on this five-spot progressive 3 out of five pays 5 for one, and 4 out of five pays 32 for one. I punch those numbers into the calculator and leave the 5 out of five blank. It shows a return of 80.663%. That means I'm getting dropped for 19.337%. So the equation to figure the average cost is:

50 cents X 1550.57 X 19.337% = $149.92

With a playable number of $180, and throwing in the meter, the average win is at least $34. Nothing to write home about. But playing on turbo speed I'm cranking out 42 games per minute. So the average seat time on this play is 37 minutes (1550.57/42). Which means my seat time on these plays is worth at least $55 per hour.