Only doubling down for select hands
Thread Rating:
Say I only and always double down on straight, flush, and full house wins but nowhere else
Standard Jacks or better with double down option on win
4500 - Royal flush
250 - Straight flush
125 - 4
45 - full house
30 - flush
20 - straight
15 - 3 of a kind
19 - 2 pair
5 - jacks or better
Quote: encaliburWould only taking the doubling down option on select hands greatly affect the optimum strategy?
Say I only and always double down on straight, flush, and full house wins but nowhere else
Standard Jacks or better with double down option on win
4500 - Royal flush
250 - Straight flush
125 - 4
45 - full house
30 - flush
20 - straight
15 - 3 of a kind
19 - 2 pair
5 - jacks or better
If you are playing a game in which the ER of the game combined with the value of any points + comps you get still yields less than a 100% overall return, then technically, you should always double-down as the theoretical return is exactly 100%. I suppose if you wanted to avoid the taxman, then you should only double down until the next double-up would result in a handpay, then stop.
If you are playing a game where the ER of the game combined with the value of any points + comps you get yields greater than a 100% overall return, then you should never double-down as an expectation of 100% return is worse than what you are getting by continuing to play the game.
Quote: Mission146If you are playing a game in which the ER of the game combined with the value of any points + comps you get still yields less than a 100% overall return, then technically, you should always double-down as the theoretical return is exactly 100%. I suppose if you wanted to avoid the taxman, then you should only double down until the next double-up would result in a handpay, then stop.
If you are playing a game where the ER of the game combined with the value of any points + comps you get yields greater than a 100% overall return, then you should never double-down as an expectation of 100% return is worse than what you are getting by continuing to play the game.
Anyone who follows this to the letter will have a variance nightmare. As for his question about changing optimal playing strategy...it doesn't change any strategy.
Quote: tringlomaneAnyone who follows this to the letter will have a variance nightmare. As for his question about changing optimal playing strategy...it doesn't change any strategy.
This is what I find interesting about it, in my opinion, Video Poker IS a Variance nightmare.
I don't know what people typically use for a win goal on 9/6 JoB, but I can say that, right off the top, a Straight Flush is absolutely the smallest hand that would cause me to walk away...and I'd have to be even the hand prior...You're basically just sitting there and grinding away at that beast hoping to eventually hit a Royal.
The Royal Flush is 4,000 credits, which is $1,000 on $0.25's and not a handpay.
The probability of a Royal, with Optimal Strategy is: 0.000025 and the return is 0.020076.
Let's look at the probability of a win in an amount that the next one would be a handpay, so we stop.
JoB-5 Credits
Doubles (5,10,20,40,80,160,320,640,1280,2560)---9 Doubles
0.214585 * (.5)^9 = 0.000419111328125
Return: 0.000419111328125 * 2560/5 = 0.214585
Two Pair-10 Credits
Doubles (10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560)---8 Doubles
0.129279 * (.5)^8 = 0.00050499609375
Return: 0.00050499609375 * 2560/5 = 0.258558
NOTE---I'm going to stop with the Returns now, just demonstrating that they are the same. I knew that you knew they would be, Tringlomane, but wanted to demonstrate it for anyone new to gambling who may look at this thread
Three of a Kind-15 Credits
Doubles (15, 30, 60, 120, 240, 480, 960, 1920, 3840)---8 Doubles
0.074449 * (.5)^8 = 0.00029081640625
Straight-20 Credits
Doubles (20, 40, 80, 160, 320, 640, 1280, 2560)---7 Doubles
0.011229 * (.5)^7 = 0.0000877265625
Flush-30 Credits
Doubles (30, 60, 120, 240, 480, 960, 1920, 3840)---7 Doubles
0.011015 * (.5)^7 = 0.0000860546875
Full House-45 Credits
Doubles (45, 90, 180, 360, 720, 1440, 2880)----6 Doubles
0.011512 * (.5)^6 = 0.000179875
Four of a Kind-125 Credits
Doubles (125, 250, 500, 1000, 2000, 4000)---5 Doubles
0.002363 * (.5)^5 = 0.00007384375
Straight Flush-250 Credits
Doubles (250, 500, 1000, 2000, 4000)---4 Doubles
0.000109 * (.5)^4 = 0.0000068125
Conclusion
Thus, we win 2,560 credits (or more) with probability:
0.000025 + 0.000419111328125 + 0.00050499609375 + 0.00029081640625 + 0.0000877265625 + 0.0000860546875 + 0.000179875 + 0.00007384375 + 0.0000068125 = 0.0016742363281249997 or 1/0.0016742363281249997 = 1 in 597.2872426677742
Good times!
If you start off with a bankroll of 2,560 Credits which is 2560/5 = 512 plays
The probability of hitting a pay for same (or better) is:
(1-0.0016742363281249997)^512 = 0.42404004300092096 (Probability of Failure)
1 - 0.42404004300092096 = 0.575959956999079 (Probability of Success)
Hopefully, the Base Hand is a 3OaK, Flush, FH, 4OaK, SF or Royal...and hopefully it hits earlier than it should!
Who's going to grab $640 and go for it?
Not me.
I'd stop at anything over 1,000 credits, for sure, or even one of the 960 Credits situations. Of course, I wouldn't have started with $640, either.
In honesty, I'd have probably stopped before that, but I think I might give this a try one day...
