Progressive Video Poker

Does the Wizard (or someone else) have a chart explaining at what point progressive video poker games become positive expectation? Or is there a simple way of calculating this if you happen to stumble across a progressive video poker machine which has a huge royal flush payout?

I was always told the easiest way to calculate is 1%+ per extra 1000 coins on the royal...
In particular, there's a 9/6 JoB I play with a pat 4500 coin royal...its like 99.9%

If you are wanting to know how much the machine pays with optimal strategy, you can just input the value of the progressive into the Wizard's (JBs) Strategy Calculator. Then it will also give you the optimal strategy at the same time since strategy changes become important as the progressive gets higher. Mainly throwing away high pairs for particular 3 to a Royal draws.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/strategy/calculator/


As far as Break-even points for various progressive games, I'm not sure if anyone has created a table though.

For 9/6 JoB the breakeven point is 976 for 1 (4880 for 5), $1220 at quarters.

For 8/5 Bonus Poker, the breakeven point is 1120 for 1 (5600 for 5), $1400 at quarters.

Every 1000 extra credits (based on max bet) in a progressive machine is about a 0.55% increase in return.

9/6 JoB is just past the point where you get the W-2G, that hurts.

VP Progressive List

Quote: Juyemura

Does the Wizard (or someone else) have a chart explaining at what point progressive video poker games become positive expectation? Or is there a simple way of calculating this if you happen to stumble across a progressive video poker machine which has a huge royal flush payout?

The standard approach is to use linear interpolation. For a standard max bet of 5 coins for 4,000 coins jackpot (or at a rate of 800 coins for 1), and given the fact that a RF is about 2% of the return, then every additional 400 for 1 coins payoff (1) is worth about an extra 1%.

The problem with linear interpolation is similar to duration in Fixed Income: Duration works well for small changes in interest rates but breaks down for large changes. That is to say since RF is non-linear in nature, you can only do so much with a linear approach.

-Cheers

(1) When the RF jackpot is at 6,000 coins or 1,200 for 1, this technique will approximate the return in a 9/6 JOB game to be at 100.54% when the actual computer perfect return is 100.65%.

Quote: RogerKint

VP Progressive List

That is a nice list for computer perfect play. Too bad, they don't have one where you keep the same base game strategies, respectively.

Quote: Ardent1

Quote: RogerKint

VP Progressive List

That is a nice list for computer perfect play. Too bad, they don't have one where you keep the same base game strategies, respectively.

With the era of smartphones, I would just examine the meter, then use Wiz's/JB's video poker strategy maker to compute the new strategy (possibly outside of the casino since it's technically illegal), stare at the strategy for noticeable changes to basic strategy, and then pray to hit a Royal!

Figuring out the break-even for a given game while playing "basic strategy" is easy using the wizard's video poker return tables.

For example, 9/6 Jacks or better has a total return of 99.54%, with the 800-coin royal flush being responsible for 1.98% of that return. To get to break even we need the return on the royal to be 0.46% more, or 23% higher (0.46/1.98). So 4000*1.23 = 4920 coins (5-coin bet) Would be the break-even point for this game.

You could do a similar calculation for determining when you would have a 1% edge. 1.46/1.98 = .74; 4000*1.74 = 6960 coins.

Quote: bublite

Figuring out the break-even for a given game while playing "basic strategy" is easy using the wizard's video poker return tables.

For example, 9/6 Jacks or better has a total return of 99.54%, with the 800-coin royal flush being responsible for 1.98% of that return. To get to break even we need the return on the royal to be 0.46% more, or 23% higher (0.46/1.98). So 4000*1.23 = 4920 coins (5-coin bet) Would be the break-even point for this game.

You could do a similar calculation for determining when you would have a 1% edge. 1.46/1.98 = .74; 4000*1.74 = 6960 coins.

You are missing the point - you are using a linear approximation technique, which breaks down as the RF gets larger since you are now forced to alter strategy due to the changes in EV of 2-card or 3-card RF hands.

If you don't want to alter strategy, then you minimize the variance but will take longer to hit the progressive RF since you are keeping the RF cycle as a constant as opposed to a dynamic RF cycle, respectively.

Quote: tringlomane

Quote: Ardent1

Quote: RogerKint

VP Progressive List

That is a nice list for computer perfect play. Too bad, they don't have one where you keep the same base game strategies, respectively.

With the era of smartphones, I would just examine the meter, then use Wiz's/JB's video poker strategy maker to compute the new strategy (possibly outside of the casino since it's technically illegal), stare at the strategy for noticeable changes to basic strategy, and then pray to hit a Royal!

I was referring to the Steve Jacobs effect, for example, min variance of the jackpot due to using a fixed strategy, akin to a basic strategy per the Jazbo standard.