Keno Draw Poker

I saw a new game at the Red Rock today, Keno Draw Poker. It is video poker with a multiplier, based on the draw of keno balls. Please have a look at my new page. As always, I welcome corrections, comments, and questions.

You saw that game today and completed the analysis same day? You really are a wizard!

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with the additional of an optional keno draw.

"...with the addition of an optional keno draw."

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If the player enabled the keno bet then any win

"If the player enabled the keno bet, then any win"

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The following table shows the return for various common video poker games according to number of keno balls chosen for a 5-credit keno bet, assuming optimal video poker strategy.

The following table shows the return for various common video poker games according to number of keno balls chosen (2 to 5) for a 5-credit keno bet, assuming optimal video poker strategy. The column for 0 picks refer to playing video poker only.

There is no table between these two paragraphs, but they both start with, "The following table."

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I'd also like to mirror what JohnZimbo said in that the page is some amazing work given that you just saw the game for the first time today!

It looks like a great game, the Keno aspect increases the variance and the potential payouts while decreasing the house edge and also resulting in the potential for the player to play at an advantage, if the right paytable can be found.

The best part of that is the low HE (and possible slight player advantage) for a $0.05 denomination machine. $1.25/hand to play optimally and at a slight advantage (with the right paytable) isn't a bad deal at all. I would say that the smart player combines those bets with the Video Poker Hand Analyzer at WoO and can grind out a profit if he has a sizable enough bankroll. This is especially true since the vast majority of plays can be made without the analyzer as they are obvious.

Wizard,

I don't understand why on the return for keno bet 5 pick 6 is 1.015489 assuming video poker has a return of 100% and keno bet 10 pick 10 is 1.008362, yet you recommend to always bet the 10 coin keno bet. In other words on the table right after you wrote:

"The following table shows the return for both the 5-credit and 10-credit keno bets, assuming the video poker had a return of 100%."

shows the values for 5-credit keno bet being generally higher than 10-credit keno bets. Why then the opposite advice?

Also even on the game specific tables I see that for NSUD with a 5-credit keno bet with 6 numbers picked the return is 100.14% and for 10-credit keno bet with 10 numbers picked the return is 100.114%.

Thanks.

Quote: Johnzimbo

You saw that game today and completed the analysis same day? You really are a wizard!

Thanks, but it wasn't that hard. The math was quite easy, most of the time was spent just creating the page. I did a lot of other stuff today today too.

Quote: bugsyluciano

Wizard,

I don't understand why on the return for keno bet 5 pick 6 is 1.015489 assuming video poker has a return of 100% and keno bet 10 pick 10 is 1.008362, yet you recommend to always bet the 10 coin keno bet. In other words on the table right after you wrote:

"The following table shows the return for both the 5-credit and 10-credit keno bets, assuming the video poker had a return of 100%."

shows the values for 5-credit keno bet being generally higher than 10-credit keno bets. Why then the opposite advice?

Also even on the game specific tables I see that for NSUD with a 5-credit keno bet with 6 numbers picked the return is 100.14% and for 10-credit keno bet with 10 numbers picked the return is 100.114%.

Good catch! That is worthy of a feather in your cap, at my expense.

You're right. I now calculate that a base-game return of 99.4661% it doesn't make any difference between the two options. Over that point and the player should bet 5 coins on the keno and pick 6.

I made some more changes to the advice section at the bottom. For base games with low return, the player should do the pick-3 or pick-9 keno, according to the exact base game return.

To save you the click, here is what I added.

The following formulas show the general formula for the return of the game with the keno bet, according to the return of the base game, for the best viable bet choices.

5-credit keno (pick 6): 0.094353 + (0.909519 × base return).
10-credit keno (pick 10): 0.192586 + (0.810759 × base return).
10-credit keno (pick 9): 0.195177 + (0.808142 × base return).
10-credit keno (pick 3): 0.227556 + (0.774830 × base return).


Advice

Play the best pay table you can find.
If the base game pays 99.466% or over, then bet 5 coins on the keno and pick 6 numbers.
Otherwise, if the base game pays 98.983% to 99.466%, then bet 10 coins on the keno and pick 10 numbers.
Otherwise, if the base game pays 97.200% to 98.983%, then bet 10 coins on the keno and pick 9 numbers.
Otherwise, if the base game pays 97.200% or less, then bet 10 coins on the keno and pick 3 numbers.
Play your cards according to conventional video poker strategy.

Keno Draw Poker.

Do you have any example data handy on how the keno bet affects the game variance?

Quote: tringlomane

Do you have any example data handy on how the keno bet affects the game variance?

Nope.

Quote: Wizard

Nope.

Darn. I guess I could half-ass calculate the variance myself since the video poker return is consistent with normal play and the keno game acts like a STP-like bonus. I bothered to calculate Double Super Times Pay for return/variance via a spreadsheet before...yikes! But it's also unlikely I play this game for nickels unless I can play a machine near 100% (would exist only at off-strip Vegas casinos I'm sure) since the game likely will cost $1 or $1.25 a deal at nickels. Stupid forced triple play.

<--- poor :(

But if I get bored enough to bother to calculate the changes in variance, I'll post results.

How much does the Keno option slow down the rate at which you can play the poker game? Will hands per hour be diminished greatly?

What kind of strange individuals think up games like this?

If I had one keno bet on any machine using the KISS principle, I might go 4-spot 5 coins.

Quote: iluvdisco33

What kind of strange individuals think up games like this?

Any game that is based on tripple play (like this one) is likely the product of Ernie Moody's genius.

Quote: iluvdisco33

What kind of strange individuals think up games like this?

I don't know, but any individual that dreams up a game with a 100%+ ER in some cases is just fine in my book.

I just dreamed up a new Keno game:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gaming-business/game-inventors/12283-players-pick-progressive-keno/#post202599