FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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February 20th, 2017 at 4:39:49 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

02-12-2017 "Regal Princess" Cruise Ship Report
The slots were loose in the daytime and tight at night.

Yeah, the casino hire some young punk from a foreign land who is interested in sun, travel and young ladies, pays him a minimum wage and then gives him the secret codes to change the machines. After that they sleep soundly at night knowing their money is safe.

Othere than that... it was a very nice trip report and summary.
DRich
DRich
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CrystalMathRomesPokerGrinder
February 20th, 2017 at 6:19:30 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze



I like playing at home where I know ... which rollers shoot well and which ones don't.



Lol
Order from chaos
bbvk05
bbvk05
Joined: Jan 12, 2011
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February 20th, 2017 at 9:28:02 PM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

They were capped at 2x on the odds. I normally play 5x or 10x tables at home.

I generally played 5 on the PL and 10 on the odds (2x capped). I then increased after the 3rd or 5th roll if no 7-out to 10/20 (5 and 9) OR (20/40 to 30/60 if a hot roller). It worked out well.

The majority of money I lost had nothing to do with PL bets. It was when I didn't turn off or take down place bets when I became greedy.

I like playing at home where I know the people and know which rollers shoot well and which ones don't.



I'm glad it worked out for you. Those are still horrendous bets. You'd be much better off just putting that money on the pass line on the front end. Or placing the 6 and 8; buying the 4 and 10. You likely would have had a better result.

Your method is making some of the worst available bets.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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February 21st, 2017 at 5:34:50 AM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

I'm glad it worked out for you. Those are still horrendous bets. You'd be much better off just putting that money on the pass line on the front end. Or placing the 6 and 8; buying the 4 and 10. You likely would have had a better result.

Your method is making some of the worst available bets.



I was mainly there to have fun. At home I only bet on myself and a few other rollers. Everyone else I generally do DP/DC or PB6 or PB8. The cruise ship was a different atmosphere. I'm also a karma player. Don't ask. Most people don't like the answer I give.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
LuckyPhow
LuckyPhow
Joined: May 19, 2016
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February 21st, 2017 at 6:16:50 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

I'm also a karma player. Don't ask. Most people don't like the answer I give.



Amen to that, bro! For some, if they cannot count it, it must not exist. Glad you decided to note your position. I'm sure they're now setting loose their attack Dogmas to chase after your Karma.

Some of us have come to understand that energy has many "intangibles." Like Love and Beauty, it is not readily quantifiable. To each her/his own.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
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February 21st, 2017 at 7:08:17 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Amen to that, bro! For some, if they cannot count it, it must not exist. Glad you decided to note your position. I'm sure they're now setting loose their attack Dogmas to chase after your Karma.

Some of us have come to understand that energy has many "intangibles." Like Love and Beauty, it is not readily quantifiable. To each her/his own.




Completely agree.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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February 21st, 2017 at 7:51:50 AM permalink
Quote: bbvk05

I'm glad it worked out for you. Those are still horrendous bets. You'd be much better off just putting that money on the pass line on the front end. Or placing the 6 and 8; buying the 4 and 10. You likely would have had a better result.

Your method is making some of the worst available bets.

I don't know if he realizes... So when you bet $5 PL, then a 6 comes up and you put more money on it... That money is at a disadvantage, and a MUCH BIGGER disadvantage considering it didn't even have a chance to win on the 7/11 come out... 7 is the most likely number, so any 1 throw 7 win is a good play. The PL becomes the dog after a point gets established... aka you're stuffing more money after it's a bad bet.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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February 21st, 2017 at 8:15:28 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

I'm also a karma player. Don't ask. Most people don't like the answer I give.

Yeah, I know. If the dice move to someone who is loud, obnoxious and irritating, I switch to the Don't for sure. Is this mathematically utter hogwash, of course it is. I'll lose my money in my own style.
JoelDeze
JoelDeze
Joined: Apr 20, 2016
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February 21st, 2017 at 10:23:09 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I don't know if he realizes... So when you bet $5 PL, then a 6 comes up and you put more money on it... That money is at a disadvantage, and a MUCH BIGGER disadvantage considering it didn't even have a chance to win on the 7/11 come out... 7 is the most likely number, so any 1 throw 7 win is a good play. The PL becomes the dog after a point gets established... aka you're stuffing more money after it's a bad bet.



Romes, we've had this argument before. No amount of mathematical rationale is going to explain how someone has 58 straight rolls, hits 4 points, and never once hits a 7 on either the come out roll, or anytime during play, until he finally 7-outs. Yes, I've seen it happen. I've done it. And, during that time, the dealer at the opposite end of the table was saying that he's seen it before. He said a person that doesn't roll a 7, even during the come out roll, generally has a long roll. The dealer had been dealing craps for more than 10 years.

I am in fact a math guy. I have a program that utilizes RNG based on using radioactive decay with more than 100,000,000 events being isolated and tested. While the overall probability is mathematically accurate with what is posted on almost every online site, it is not accurate when utilizing the same data in randomly generated short sessions.

I could program something as simple as a 3-hour session with 10 people at a table playing PL and max odds at 5x and find that 9s came up more than 6s or 8s during that span. Sure, over a long amount of time the data shows a certain and distinct probability rationale in favor of the 7 on a come out roll. And, likewise, 6s and 8s should come up more often than 5s or 9s, and likewise 5s and 9s should come up more than 4s and 10s. Also the average 7-out should be right around 8 rolls. However, it won't explain why 5 drunk hot girls show up at a table having no idea how to play the game, and each of them rolls a minimum of one to two points each and makes me $1,600 on the session.

All of that probability is just that - "probability". Probability is not prediction. Probability helps enforce predictive analytics and in some sports (like football) it is fairly accurate. Probability doesn't explain why the Pats come back to beat the Falcons in OT. How much would you have bet in the middle of the 3rd quarter that the Pats would win the game? I bet $500 on the ATS in favor of the Pats in the 2nd half and another $250 on a parlay (Over and ATS on Pats in 2nd half). Why? They were leading and crushing the Falcons statistically in the 1st half regardless of the score. Now most people would think it was a close game. It wasn't a close game at all. The Pats doubled almost every stat in the game. So, was the statistical probability in favor of the Pats? Was the scoring probability in favor of the Falcons to win the game? Look at the math for just that one game and then continue a discussion on probability.

At some point you can't just explain events like this away to random pattern deviation. If you do believe this do be random pattern deviation then every person that believes they have DI and controlled shooting techniques can simply say that when they have a short roll it was random pattern deviation.

All I do know is that I came out on the positive in craps and I had a lot of fun watching 5 drunk girls make me some money.

And, please by all means stop trying to explain a good bet versus a bad bet to me or anyone else. I'll simply answer it for you. A good bet is when you wager money on an event and win. A bad bet is when you wager money on an event and lose. If I wager 20 straight times on the 4 and 10 and end up winning more than I lose and you wager 10 on the PL 20 times and end up losing more than you win, who had the good bet and who had the bad bet?

Mathematically you are correct on the probability and return. I have never said otherwise and never will. However, mathematical probability does not accurately define the crazy randomness of patterns during a live event. A guy on the casino ship rolled 4 YOs in a row randomly shaking a pair of dice. Go find the probability on that event. The next time the guy gets the dice again he rolls 2 or 3 YOs (not in a row) randomly shaking the dice. Why is this particular guy rolling YOs? No one else at the table was rolling them. So, what's the probability of 1 guy out of 8 rolling the only YOs at the table?

Some things math cannot explain.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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PokerGrinder
February 21st, 2017 at 10:31:12 AM permalink
Quote: JoelDeze

Romes, we've had this argument before. No amount of mathematical rationale is going to explain...


Quote: JoelDeze

...Sure, over a long amount of time the data shows a certain and distinct probability rationale in favor of the 7 on a come out roll.

Just read your first 2 quotes over and over after one another until it hits you...

Quote: JoelDeze

However, it won't explain why 5 drunk hot girls show up at a table having no idea how to play the game, and each of them rolls a minimum of one to two points each and makes me $1,600 on the session.

Yes, why yes it does. You've answered your own question about how you haven't hit "over a long amount of time" to see all respective outcomes and the averages. You're writing out yourself that you're seeing VARIANCE in the short term, which is exactly what 5 drunk hot girls at a craps table throwing "well" means. Everyone remembers 5 drunk hot girls throwing well. No one remembers the 5 ugly sober girls who 7'd out on the first point trow... Memory is biased, math is not.

Quote: JoelDeze

At some point you can't just explain events like this away to random pattern deviation.

ANYTHING you can provide a verified true story of I can explain with math... literally anything.

Quote: JoelDeze

A good bet is when you wager money on an event and win. A bad bet is when you wager money on an event and lose. If I wager 20 straight times on the 4 and 10 and end up winning more than I lose and you wager 10 on the PL 20 times and end up losing more than you win, who had the good bet and who had the bad bet?

I immediately call upon the Wizard and/or moderators to chastize and/or suspend/ban JoelDeze for directly contradicting the very meaning of the Wizard's Odds site and our discussions surrounding it here.

The definition of a good bet is one in which you have a positive expectation. The definition of a bad bet is one which you make with a negative expectation. Luck, doesn't make you good or bad... Luck is nothing more than a simple word for variance in the short run. Using your knowledge, if a counter correctly counts and plays and has a loosing streak, then he had a bunch of "bad" bets even though in the end he came out to his mathematical expectation by using his SKILL over the course of the long run. You're telling every AP on this site every bet they've ever loss was a BAD BET, which I guarantee most of them would take offence to (because they use their brains to make good bets).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

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