Can Hold be simulated / generated outside of casinos?

House Edge (HE) can be computed with an excel application or some simulators. How about the casino Hold?
(1) There are several different ways to define casino hold:
Hold = Amount casino keeps / Total value of chips purchased or Hold = win / drop. Drop != handle.
(2) Hold is about 10 * HE.
(3) I have seen some real casino spreadsheets:
Hold = [Cash Drop + Marker + Closing Table Inventory - Open Table Inventory] / [Cash Drop + Marker].
Here is my questions:
Could the Casino Hold (%) be computed by an analytical program or obtained by an emulation in an office or a testing environment outside of casinos?

Definitions #1 and #3 are the same. The formula in #3 is just the method of determining win divided by drop. Hold would be tough to simulate as it's a function of how much people buy-in versus their average bet and how long they play.

a) Why? I don't believe that hold is actually a useful statistic.

b) You would have to simulate all manners of customer behaviour, such as average buy-in, length of time at table, average bet size. That would take a lot of data collection and statistical analysis to simulate properly. Then when you were done... see a)

Quote: dwheatley

a) Why? I don't believe that hold is actually a useful statistic.

Why? Because casino's directors / executives look at the %'s to determine the fate of the games

You'd need a lot more data than you have. You'd need (a) playthrough factor, i.e. ratio of handle to drop, and (b) for strategy games, the true theoretical edge experienced by a player based on their suboptimal strategy; e.g. BJ under optimal play may be -0.5%, but average players play at -1.75%.

Without that knowledge, you can't really get there. That's why electronic table tracking systems exist, and also why e-tables are sometimes installed in jurisdictions which otherwise allow table games.

Hold is the most important statistic there is. (other than win) You can show me all the stats on house edge or time on game or frequency but if it doesn't hold a minimum amount or more than the maximum I'm comfortable with it goes out the door.

There is no way to really simulate it unless you can account for how poorly players might play the game and how much total money they are going to play.

10x house edge is not an accurate number to come up with a guestimated Hold Percentage.

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

Hold is the most important statistic there is. (other than win) You can show me all the stats on house edge or time on game or frequency but if it doesn't hold a minimum amount or more than the maximum I'm comfortable with it goes out the door.

This is the bit that always perplexed me. To me, it seems that absolute win is far more important than hold, but many operators seem to be willing to sacrifice actual dollars for percentage signs. Wouldn't you rather have a game hold 7.6% but win 35k/month vs. a hold of 21% but 33k/month? Those are the actual NGC numbers from 12/2011 for Pai Gow and Pai Gow Poker, respectively.

Although your scenario seems cut and dry that $35,000 is better than $33,000 there is also a little more to it than that as well. I'd look at how many hours per day each game is open, average bets and a few other things.

I'd also serisously look into another game that I thought I could get the same same drop on that 7.6% hold table and get a 20% hold on it. A 7.6% generally doesn't cut it no matter how much you win because so many other games have proven they can do better. Also, at a place with limited tables, a 7.6% hold does not allow for much seat turnover, which makes customers that are waiting to play angry.

Zcore13

Quote: Zcore13

Also, at a place with limited tables, a 7.6% hold does not allow for much seat turnover, which makes customers that are waiting to play angry

Z,

I had always had the same question as ME posed, never quite understood the "holy grail" of the hold percentage.

What I am inferring from your comment regarding hours the table is open and seat turnover is that the 20% to 25% sweet spot of hold percentage is what the casino looks at as a fair exchange of play for anticipated loss by the player.

That is to say, you don't want to be running a table that holds 8% because players will be getting too many hours of entertainment for their loss contribution to the casino. You would rather have more players getting less hours of play while paying the same loss amount in dollars. The way you tend to gauge that "time played for loss incurred" trade off is the hold percentage.

Is that a fair way to express why the "hold" is so highly regarded as a key gauge for a game?

If Casino X banks 33,000 at blackjack, and at month's end sees 39,000 in the bank is that a hold of about 18.2%?

Paradigm,

Each Casino is different. My Casino is made up of a VERY high percentage of regulars during the week and a mix of regulars and not so regulars over the weekend. I am happy to let the regulars sit in their seat for a little longer than most Casinos would want because I know they will be back the next day and I try and avoid killing them and them having to go home and explain that.

A Las Vegas Strip Casino is in a whole different situation. They are going to see their customer for a few days and the customer usually has an amount with them they are expecting to lose. My guess is the Las Vegas Strip Casino would prefer to have a faster turnover than I want.

I think hold percentage is just a way to generally categorize a game, just like average bet, skill level, time played is a general way to categorize players. There is more to each, but it's a nice starting point to begin a search for the information you need.

Zcore13

Paradigm,

Each Casino is different. My Casino is made up of a VERY high percentage of regulars during the week and a mix of regulars and not so regulars over the weekend. I am happy to let the regulars sit in their seat for a little longer than most Casinos would want because I know they will be back the next day and I try and avoid killing them and them having to go home and explain that.

A Las Vegas Strip Casino is in a whole different situation. They are going to see their customer for a few days and the customer usually has an amount with them they are expecting to lose. My guess is the Las Vegas Strip Casino would prefer to have a faster turnover than I want.

I think hold percentage is just a way to generally categorize a game, just like average bet, skill level, time played is a general way to categorize players. There is more to each, but it's a nice starting point to begin a search for the information you need.

Zcore13

Quote: 98Clubs

If Casino X banks 33,000 at blackjack, and at month's end sees 39,000 in the bank is that a hold of about 18.2%?

(1) I think casinos do it daily, not monthly.
(2) The house banks 33,000 to begin with. At the end of the day, the cash drop box took in say 60 hundred dollar bills, i.e., $6,000 and the house counted to have $30,000 in chips. Then the house has a total of $36,000 at closing. Thus [36,000-33,000] / 6000 = 3,000/6,000 = 50%. Just an example, typically not this high.

Thanks Z, that makes sense.

It sounds like too fast a game with high degree of volatility is not a good fit in a locals casino. Your players are going to want to "stay and play" and make the bankroll last and because they will be back next day, next week & next month, you are OK with a slower bleed than a destination casino property.

It would seem that a game like Let It Ride or Mississippi Stud, would not fit this environment. Perhaps even Ultimate Texas Hold'em's volatility would be too much for the regulars. How have you seen various carnival games work in destination type properties that would not work in a locals/regulars property?

You've got the gist of it Paradigm. Texas Shootout is a good example in my opinion. Higher frequency, lower hold and less hands per hour than 3 Card, Let it Ride, Ultimate, etc. My customers can't get enough of it and it's been in play for years. Not one placement in Nevada.

Quote: Zcore13

You've got the gist of it Paradigm. Texas Shootout is a good example in my opinion. Higher frequency, lower hold and less hands per hour than 3 Card, Let it Ride, Ultimate, etc. My customers can't get enough of it and it's been in play for years. Not one placement in Nevada.

Saw it at Binion's for a short period of time, then disappeared and Harrah's Reno, also a short period.