Regarding the various "Dark Side" advocacy & discussions in Craps

You are better off by .05 percent betting the 'Don't' instead of the Pass line unless I am very much mistaken.

So that means one quarter of one cent on each come out roll on a $5 bet on the pass line, instead of the 'Don't'. That has some minor meaning for somebody who makes thousands of bets a month, and nearly nothing to me.

I do wonder if the variance is more tolerable, if you want less variance on taking the odds. That question seems to be up in the air, from following the threads here, assuming I didnt miss it. So I wish somebody could answer that, less variance when not in the mood for it is the only reason I would occasionally perhaps go to the Dark Side.

The question may still be up in the air, but count me firmly on the side that says betting the don't produces less variance. My reasoning is that you win more times that you lose, therefore it's easier to weather the bankroll swings. Would be glad to hear anyone else's reasoning.

From a math standpoint the variance is exactly the same (for the odds portion of the bets). Betting Right you'll get a lot of small losses and a few big wins; betting Wrong you'll get a lot of small wins and a few big losses. Since the EV on either odds bet is zero and the two bets are mirror images of each other (i.e., if one wins the other must lose), the variances are identical.

To make a simple example, consider if you and I were betting on the roll of a single 6-sided die. I win $5 every time a 6 is rolled, but lose $1 for all other numbers (this is analagous to the Right bettor); you lose $5 on a 6, but win $1 for all other numbers (analagous to the Wrong bettor). Here's the math:

My EV: ($5 x 1/6) - ($1 x 5/6) = $5/6 - $5/6 = $0
Your EV: ($1 x 5/6) - ($5 x 1/6) = $5/6 - $5/6 = $0

So just like both odds bets in craps, both of our EV's are zero.

My variance: (($5 - $0)² x 1/6) + ((-$1 - $0)² x 5/6) = 25/6 + 5/6 = $5
Your variance: (($1 - $0)² x 5/6) + ((-$5 - $0)² x 1/6) = 5/6 + 25/6 = $5

So while our outcome distributions will be exact opposites of each other, the actual variance is the same.

Quote: teddys

The question may still be up in the air, but count me firmly on the side that says betting the don't produces less variance. My reasoning is that you win more times that you lose, therefore it's easier to weather the bankroll swings.

my gut likes this theory

Quote: dk

So while our outcome distributions will be exact opposites of each other, the actual variance is the same.

but this has the math back-up! if that holds up and not challenged, I don't see any reason for a piker like me going to the dark side. I mean really, a penny every 4 come-out rolls?

Unless there is some other reason to do so not mentioned yet?

Thanks for the responses

Quote: odiousgambit

You are better off by .05 percent betting the 'Don't' instead of the Pass line.

Well, I guess there are some who either think that is a whopping amount or else simply like to be on the Dark Side or simply realize that it makes so darned little difference that they might as well go for being ornery. I have a sort of bias for the Dark Side because the tiny box on the layout is so discouraging and so few people use it.

Besides, after I get passed that first roll (that wasn't 7 or 11), I'm rooting for the number that is most likely to roll whereas everybody else is rooting for some number that is slightly lesser likely to be rolled.

But overall, I agree with your comment: it don't really matter one whit. Its pretty much a toss up and whether you put your money down on the PassLine or the DontPassLine, makes such little difference that it really might as well be a decision you make based on a coin toss.

The distribution of outcomes for betting pass line with odds has positive skew, while the distribution of outcomes for betting don't pass and laying odds has negative skew. That is, pass line betters will see their bankrolls go down slowly most of the time, with very quick rises. Don't pass betters will see their bankrolls go up slowly most of the time, with very quick drops.

Pick whichever one you like better...

I believe the dark side offers the player a much more stable betting environment.

Look – there is only one thing certain about casino games – if the casino encourages you to bet one way you can be sure as hell it doesn’t favor you.

The Pass line is not only more favorable to the casino from an odds standpoint – more importantly it also favors the casino from a risk of ruin standpoint.

Look – if we are talking about placing one Pass/Don’t Pass bet per round of play – it doesn’t make much difference. But, if you place multiple Pass/Don’t Pass bets combined with Come/Don’t Come bets, there is much more bankroll volatility on the bright side.

Why?

Well – if you place 3 Pass/Come bets – and take full odds (at 5 times odds) – you have a total of 18 units at risk – all of which you can lose – in one cruel swoop - if the most probable of numbers – 7 – is rolled. Don’t you just hate that?

On the other hand – if you place 3 Don’t Pass/Don’t Come bets – and take full odds – the odds now are fully in your favor and – even if you lose one bet (lets say 1 flat and 10 odds units bet on the 4) – you can still win the other two points established for a total win of 12 units – still netting 1 unit.

For the casino to win it must pick off your bets one by one by one - before the 7 shows up.

That is muuuuuuch less volatile.

I’m always amazed that people do not get this.

Furthermore – if you play the Pass side and establish 3 flat bets at full odds – you need to hit at LEAST 2 out of your 3 points to make a profit before the 7 shows up. Ask yourself – does that happen a majority of the time?

There is a REASON why the casino calls the Pass line “Betting Right.” LOL!!! It’s a good way to go bankrupt fast!

Quote: Transender46

There is a REASON why the casino calls the Pass line “Betting Right.” LOL!!! It’s a good way to go bankrupt fast!

You really think it's the casino that came up with that?

The casino doesn't care. The edge is almost identical.

But the general perception is that there's something wrong with a person who goes against the grain.

As a precision shooter and an advantage-gambler I wholly agree with Transender46 on this.

The mathematical edge you get from betting "Don't" instead of the right way doesn't overcome the (very small) chance that someone will take exception to your cleverness and punch you in the face. Or at least spill a drink on you/ question your manhood.

Go with the crowd, the slim financial edge of "Don't" has huge negative karmic EV.

Quote: ChipDeFerrari

Go with the crowd, the slim financial edge of "Don't" has huge negative karmic EV.

Hah, negative karmic EV gets trumped by Dollars every time! Oh sure, I once winked at the Box and switched to the PassLine because the Stick said I shouldn't bet against a pregnant woman ... but I was going along with a joke...and it turned out that I won. And the time some dippy broad interrupted my concentration by questioning my being on the Don'ts even when I was shooting...well, I'd have just loved to have won that time too, but I made the point! Each of those two incidents had nuttin' whatever to do with negative Karmic EV. I've had nothing but negative karmic EV all my life! I'm used to it now.

What side I bet on depends on the reason I'm playing. If I'm teaching someone craps, I'll bet on the pass side, because it makes it easier to explain the game, and is more fun for my pupil. If I'm playing to keep mailers coming from the casino, I'll bet the don't, for the lower house edge, and on basic principle. However, if I need to rack up a really big "theoretical loss," and I don't want to look too skilled, perhaps because I'm trying to get tournament invitations, then I'll bet the pass. Betting the don't sets off a red flag that you are a smart player, which sometimes you don't want to do.

Quote: Wizard

...However, if I need to rack up a really big "theoretical loss," and I don't want to look too skilled, perhaps because I'm trying to get tournament invitations, then I'll bet the pass. Betting the don't sets off a red flag that you are a smart player, which sometimes you don't want to do.

Interesting.

THAT, combined with the negative karma, sounds like enough to make the slight edge not worth it.

Quote: ChipDeFerrari

The mathematical edge you get from betting "Don't" instead of the right way doesn't overcome the (very small) chance that someone will take exception to your cleverness and punch you in the face. Or at least spill a drink on you/ question your manhood.

Go with the crowd, the slim financial edge of "Don't" has huge negative karmic EV.

1) If someone punches me on the face for playing the dark side, I'll sue him and the casino. SO I fail to see the problem ;)

2) Drinks thrown on people have been known to dry rather quickly, plus you can sue the offender for dammages.

3) I couldn't care less if someone questions my manhood. My self-esteem is not based on other people's opinion of me.

4) As for going with the crowd, only if that's what I want to do.

Come to the dark-side, we have 6x odds all the time, and the second 7 is our friend. lol

i'll tell you one thing that's a bummer...

when i have multiple Don't flat bets with full odds set - and the 7 shows up - and everyone at the table is deflated - and all their money is swept away - and i have to hide my joy as the dealer pushes piles of chips in front of me.

its a social faux pas to celebrate because the crybabies at the table will get upset.

Quote: Transender46

i'll tell you one thing that's a bummer...

when i have multiple Don't flat bets with full odds set - and the 7 shows up - and everyone at the table is deflated - and all their money is swept away - and i have to hide my joy as the dealer pushes piles of chips in front of me.

its a social faux pas to celebrate because the crybabies at the table will get upset.

There's much to be said for being so sad one cries all the way to the bank ;)

Seriously, if the herd doesn't refrain from celebrating when you lose and they win, there's no reason why you should show restraint.

I believe if every dice player only played stictly the front or back lines the house would have to shut down the craps department.

From a business point of view it carries a high burden expense for the house...3 dealers and a boxman per table. And think about how often you see the whole crew just standing around during off hours without a single customer.

But the house makes its money in the middle. That's why the stickman goes through the chant of "world bets, hardways, horn" and all that before the next roll. The prop bets put the house in the black.

Quote: BigLouie

That's why the stickman goes through the chant ... The prop bets put the house in the black.

Perhaps. Even a "tight" player who sticks to the line and odds bets will eventually succumb to those center bets if the drinks are strong enough, the waitresses neckline low enough and the stick man persuasive enough.

When you think about profit at craps and the justification of employing 4 people at a table, consider this for a $5 table.

Expected value for a pass / don't pass - about $.07
Average number of players at the table - about 8.
Average number of pass lines resolved per hour - about 30

30 x 8 x .07 = $16.80 / 4 dealers = $4.20/hour/employee

Blackjack, $10 table.

Expected value per hand - about $.10
Average number of players at the table - 4.
Average number of hands / hour = 100

4 x 100 x .10 = $40/hour.

So yes, the middle, field, and outside bets (4, 9, 10, 5) are needed to make the casino money. And people tend to bet more than $5 when playing.

Quote: boymimbo

Average number of pass lines resolved per hour - about 30

I've always felt that the strip and sweat-the-money joints have much faster tables than this. Even downtown or locals joints are probably a tad bit faster than 30. Its an oft-cited figure for comp purposes though. Its probably been rounded down to 30 anyway, so that floormen and pitbosses could do comps mentally. I don't know of any actual studies to support this though, but it is my experience that the dice move faster, particularly in the mornings when there are fewer players at the table. (Fastest of all are the Florida Dayboats).

Sure there are some 3.00 tables and some 5.00 tables, but most are higher. Most everyone eventually succumbs to sucker bets when they start seeing others hitting them from time to time and hear the stickman's patter through the alcohol fog. I doubt craps tables are quite as small potatoes for the casino as you think, though I do agree that the casino makes its money on the center bets.... and on the fact that even dedicated Line-and-Odds Bettors often come to a casino with a spouse who goes to a slot machine at 8 percent house edge.

On edit: "Craps 1.6% house edge and 48 rounds/hr" is the assumption declared for a table analyzing comps at vegasclick.com. I think the 48 an hour might be a much more reasonable figure than 30 an hour. Ofcourse it depends on the casino, the time of day, the number of players, the crew, and just how fast the stick is trying to move the dice without running over his dealers.

Quote: dwheatley

The distribution of outcomes for betting pass line with odds has positive skew, while the distribution of outcomes for betting don't pass and laying odds has negative skew. That is, pass line betters will see their bankrolls go down slowly most of the time, with very quick rises. Don't pass betters will see their bankrolls go up slowly most of the time, with very quick drops.

Pick whichever one you like better...

That is true for one bet; however, when you make multiple bets the skew disappears pretty fast, because the more bets you make the more likely the W-L will approach the expected.

A few years ago I ran a couple of simulations using WinCraps (www.cloudcitysoftware.com). I did sessions of 60 line bets, taking/laying double odds. The graphs of the outcomes looked very similar, and their skews were low, .11 and .15.

As far as volatility goes, the fact that you have to lay the long end of the odds on the DP means that there's a slightly greater risk of busting early, since you have more money at risk. But, here again, on the DP odds you're more likely to win than lose, so this effect diminishes quickly as you make more bets.

Skew and volatility is line betting with odds comes more from progressive betting than right/wrong.
Cheers,
Alan Shank