Confessions of a Dice Setter

I admit it. I got caught up in dice setting. When I practiced against a nice flat surface my tosses were right on axis most of the time. So, with my preferred set, I should get fewer sevens and more sixes and eights than the average shooter. I read up on the subject, including The Wizard's analysis. After hours of practicing I was sure that I could do it, and in fact I belived I might have done it successfuly once or twice when I won big while I was shooting.

But then doubt started to creep in. Real craps tables are much less forgiving than what I was practicing on, and the dice often careened sideways after the first bounce. Not to mention the bounces that the waffle-wall caused. Then there was a stretch where it seemed all my rolls were short, and many were seven-out on the first roll after the point. I think that because I believed I could do it, I got more irritated when it didn't work. But I kept trying because I figured it couldn't hurt and might help.

Other shooters who weren't even trying to set the dice gave me big wins with long rolls, or knocked me out when I bet the don't side. I started watching the dice closely when a very careful shooter set the dice, and more often than not, they started randomly tumbling in the air.

Tonight I tried an experiment. I hope this is not too shocking. I gave up on setting the dice - just grabbed them and tossed them. Some rolls were short, which was good because I was on the Don't. One was reasonably long (I had switched to the Do side) and resulted in a nice win for the evening. And you know what? When the rolls were short and I lost, I didn't care -- well, I cared that I lost, but I knew it was random, and not something I had screwed up in my set or the toss. It was a much more pleasant experience, even when I was losing.

I think I might have finally kicked the habit. Oh, I'm sure I could pay someone to help me hone my dice setting skills. But what would be the point? I don't like kicking myself when a I have a poor shoot. And I like to play the game -- I don't want to sit out or alter my betting while I wait for 8 or more other "undisciplined" shooters, some of whom WILL have hot rolls, and then I MIGHT have a fractionally higher chance of a better than average roll.

I am sure there are some good dice setters out there, I just don't think there are that many of them.

Quote: seattledice

I am sure there are some good dice setters out there, I just don't think there are that many of them.

Thanks, good post. You're not the first person I've heard of to give up on dice setting. If there are any good setters in the world, I've yet to see the evidence. Then again, maybe they don't want publicity.

I set the dice each and every time. Does it make a difference? No! But I do it for the following reasons:

1. It's fun! It makes me think that I have control of my own future, even though logically I know that I can't toss them them off the back wall with any type of magical control. If I get on a hot streak, people think that I know what I am doing. If I seven out quickly, I can always find something to blame (craps players are crazy!)

2. It slows the game down! Since I try to maximize my comps, taking my time to set the dice adds up. I always toke heavy when I am the shooter, so the crew doesn't mind as long as it doesn't take forever.

3. It's fun being the center of attention for a few minutes. Unlike the serious dice setters who go into some kind of trance or high state of concentration, I cheer and whoop and holler regardless of what I throw (unless I seven out). Sometimes I pretend to go into a trance and chant a mantra over and over, getting louder and louder until I loft the dice in the air. I hate boring dice pits, but trust me, the pit that I am playing at is always fun.

4. Did I mention it's fun? Laugh.

Seriously, I have seen a lot of crazy things in this world and I believe that yes, there could be professional dice setters out there who have a positive expectation on craps. I, however, am not one of the,.

Quote: gambler

It slows the game down! ... the crew doesn't mind as long as it doesn't take forever.

It's funny. Craps players will give the crew crap if they are slowing the game down, but if the shooter is taking his time setting the dice, the other players get a "Take all the time you want" attitude.

Quote: gambler

I set the dice each and every time. Does it make a difference? No! But I do it for the following reasons:

1. It's fun! It makes me think that I have control of my own future, even though logically I know that I can't toss them them off the back wall with any type of magical control. If I get on a hot streak, people think that I know what I am doing. If I seven out quickly, I can always find something to blame (craps players are crazy!)

2. It slows the game down! Since I try to maximize my comps, taking my time to set the dice adds up. I always toke heavy when I am the shooter, so the crew doesn't mind as long as it doesn't take forever.

3. It's fun being the center of attention for a few minutes. Unlike the serious dice setters who go into some kind of trance or high state of concentration, I cheer and whoop and holler regardless of what I throw (unless I seven out). Sometimes I pretend to go into a trance and chant a mantra over and over, getting louder and louder until I loft the dice in the air. I hate boring dice pits, but trust me, the pit that I am playing at is always fun.

4. Did I mention it's fun? Laugh.

Seriously, I have seen a lot of crazy things in this world and I believe that yes, there could be professional dice setters out there who have a positive expectation on craps. I, however, am not one of the,.

I agree with all your points. I found I was not able to blame something else when I 7ed out quickly -- only myself. That got to be less fun, and that finally outweighed everything else I thought I was getting from setting the dice. I was pretty quick to get the dice set so, relative to all the other delays, I don't think I was slowing the game down that much.

I think it's great if you can set and shoot and enjoy every minute of it. It was just not working for me. I have also seen other setters get frustrated -- almost angry -- when things didn't work. I'll still pay attention to the dice setters, hoping each time that he or she really is one of the few. Gotta keep up that positive energy, right?

On a side note - after my shoot last night, people were thanking me - even one guy near the cage I didn't recognize, but must have been at that table. Well - you're welcome I guess, but I was just the instrument of delivery of a series of random events that worked in our favor.

Evidence of dice setting to a certain degree can be found Here

Well, its not dice setting in the strictest sense, but still pretty impressive.

"Real craps tables are much less forgiving than what I was practicing on"

Then you should have been practicing on real tables. Why not make a minimum doey-don't Pass-line/Don't Pass bet on the come out and throw to your heart's content all day?

"Other shooters who weren't even trying to set the dice gave me big wins with long rolls, or knocked me out when I bet the don't side. I started watching the dice closely when a very careful shooter set the dice, and more often than not, they started randomly tumbling in the air."

Why are you betting on other "chicken-feeding" shooters, anyway?

Quote: sevenshooter

"Real craps tables are much less forgiving than what I was practicing on"

Then you should have been practicing on real tables. Why not make a minimum doey-don't Pass-line/Don't Pass bet on the come out and throw to your heart's content all day?

Besides being an incredibly boring way to guarantee a loss ... based on my own (admitedly limited) observations, and what I have read about setting dice, I don't think I would ever be "good" enough to overcome the randomness. I would still have runs of bad luck that I would blame on myself.

Quote: sevenshooter

"Other shooters who weren't even trying to set the dice gave me big wins with long rolls, or knocked me out when I bet the don't side. I started watching the dice closely when a very careful shooter set the dice, and more often than not, they started randomly tumbling in the air."

Why are you betting on other "chicken-feeding" shooters, anyway?

Like I said, I like to play. You suggest I should stand around and wait for a good shooter to come along, or only bet when I'm shooting? I have only seen a few who set and throw with consistency, and even then the dice hit the table and bounce around randomly. I have seen long rolls from dice setters and non-dice setters. I have also seen both types of shooters throw the don't bettor's dream of short roll after short roll. I was a "chicken-feeding" shooter the other day and a bunch of people walked away with some of the casino's money.

I'm not trying to say that there aren't any good dice setters. Perhaps I could be one of those by practicing as you suggest, but the investment (mostly of time) would not be worth the potential benefit to me.

I think that there are probably a very small number of people in the craps universe who can change their own odds by setting the dice AND controlling their throw so as to minimize the randomness when the dice land. Each throw takes a great deal of concentration. You have to throw from the same spot. You have to avoid all of the chips and other action at the other end of the bowl.

Still, absolutely, I think it's possible to change your outcome from a 7 1/6th of the time to something a little lower (like 16%) of the time. The problem is that it's very difficult to prove in a real life situation without a log of thousands of rolls. And at that point you have a small <1% advantage. So in this sense just as there are people who claim they are naturally lucky because they've won a few slot jackpots or won the jackpot at Caribbean, there are just as many people who claim that they're skillful because they've taken a controlled shooting course.

Personally, I'm a subscriber to the dice setting crowd and set the dice when I roll. Of the three truly awesome rolls in my life (my rolls with wins greater than $1000 at a $10 table), I've thrown in the same spot setting the dice each time. Of course I've probably lost more than I've won in the same way. I just think that I might as well try.

"I think that there are probably a very small number of people in the craps universe who can change their own odds by setting the dice AND controlling their throw so as to minimize the randomness when the dice land."

I agree -- I am one of them.

"Personally, I'm a subscriber to the dice setting crowd and set the dice when I roll."

Yes, but let's not forget how vital the throw itself is in securing a real advantage over the house. Simply setting the dice and making corresponding bets is not enough. That's just the first step. THE DICE MUST REMAIN ON AXIS. It's actually very easy to see the difference between a controlled throw and a chaotic shot. And you're right -- the landing is also crucial.

:)

Quote: sevenshooter

"I think that there are probably a very small number of people in the craps universe who can change their own odds by setting the dice AND controlling their throw so as to minimize the randomness when the dice land."

I agree -- I am one of them.

I would love to hear more regarding dice setting like how you should bet, bankroll requirements, how large an edge that you have etc. I have also heard that dice setters get tired after a while and can't control their throws for very long periods of time. Is this correct?

I have always been a little skeptical about professional craps players, but at the same time I believe that they could be out there. If you are in fact one of them, throw us a bone and teach us a few things.

Quote: gambler

Quote: sevenshooter

"I think that there are probably a very small number of people in the craps universe who can change their own odds by setting the dice AND controlling their throw so as to minimize the randomness when the dice land."

I agree -- I am one of them.

I would love to hear more regarding dice setting like how you should bet, bankroll requirements, how large an edge that you have etc. I have also heard that dice setters get tired after a while and can't control their throws for very long periods of time. Is this correct?

I have always been a little skeptical about professional craps players, but at the same time I believe that they could be out there. If you are in fact one of them, throw us a bone and teach us a few things.

Yes, fatigue does set in. As soon as I notice the dice go awry over several throws that's my cue to end the session. I've also begun to experience lower back pain recently from prolonged periods of shooting from my regular position next to the stickman. A good indication to take a break.

Regarding bankroll requirements, I've always personally advocated betting your advantage. Half-Kelly is good for a low risk of ruin.

I really can't say how large my edge is -- I just don't know. I can tell you I normally shoot the dark side only laying odds when the point becomes a 5 or 9. In that event, I use the straight sixes preset which theoretically makes the appearance of these point numbers impossible provided the dice stay on axis. When the come-out roll is a 6/8 I use a Hard 6/8 preset which gives me 4-1 for the seven instead of the usual 6-5. For 4/10 I also use the straight sixes which also weighs 4-1 over the point.

I've been thinking about dice-setting and precision throwing. I know very little on the subject, but it occurs to me a valid comparison would be bowling.

Think about it. Any bowler knows how to throw a strike. All you need to do is throw the ball with spin so it hits between the first and third pin (or first and second for lefties). League bolwers and pro bowlers have thrown the ball thuosands of times. and yet a perfect game, twelve consecutive strikes, is a very hard thing to accomplish.

At that a bowler can count on few if any distractions, no obstacles and very predictable circumstances for every throw. Yet the perfect game remains elusive.

Of course throwing a ball and throwing dice are different things, but the principles are quite similar. I think throwing the dice in a controlled fashion is more difficult, especially given the rules. So the bowling analogy tells you how rare precission dice shooting really should be.

All I've ever done was set properly orientated snowmen on top (the threes slope down left to right), and toss straight ahead. IMHO, for me its a superstition Pass or Dont. Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun imprint a letter on the back of the middle pip of the 3. I have seen M and P.