Don't Come

First of all, playing the darkside is basically no fun.

But still, I've had an idea or theory about the Don't for a long time and it goes like this: The Don't Come is a superior bet to the Don't Pass. Here is why:

Everyone knows that once the point is set, the Don't player is in the driver's seat.

The killer of the Don't player is the come out. Then he's got 3 numbers in his favor and 8 numbers that eat his lunch. What's even worse is when the come out goes something like this: 7-7-3-7-point. A seven is bad but multiple 7s are a real killer...and it happens quite often.

Now, think about this. The Don't Come player (who plays DC only and always skips the Don't Pass) is at risk from the 7 also but he never has to worry about multiple 7s. When he makes his initial DC bet and gets hit by a 7, the game rolls over to the next comeout. Then he is protected because he doesn't play Don't Pass.

The DP player is at risk for multiple 7s. The exclusive DC player is not.

So anyway, that seems to make sense to me. Still, no fun playing Don't.

Any thoughts about that?

It 'sounds' good, or at least 'feels' good, but the reality is that it's just as bad as the Don't Pass.

For as many times as you see 7, 7, 3, 7, point, 7 next shooter, you'll also see point, 7 next shooter, point, 3, 7 next shooter, point, 7 next shooter.

And then, of course, there is the ultimate 'Don't' strategy: Don't Play.

The Don't Play player's money is never at risk for multiple sevens and also never at risk for an individual seven.

:)

I play low-limit $5 stuff around here (N.E. USA). Dont and 1 DC with full odds. Practicing at the "Odds" site or in any on-line free play is a nice time killer. Shooter rolling Point-7 only cost the DC bet. The odds on the Don't cover that. The ideal is Point-point-7, but i'll take a 2 or 3 as the 2nd "point" and replay. So Point-2/3-point-7 is also welcomed.

i think i said this on another thread - but - playing multiple Don't Pass/Don't Come bets is far superior to playing multiple Pass/Come bets.

why?

well - if you place multiple Pass/Come bets - setting flat bets on 3 points with maximum odds - you have an awful lotta dough at risk - and you can lose it all in one cruel swoop - if the MOST probable of rolls shows up - the evil 7.

on the other hand - if you place multiple Don't Pass/Don't Come bets - setting flat bets on 3 points with maximum odds - you are CLEARLY in the drivers seat - with the odds in your favor -and the only way the casino can get your money is to pick off your bets one by one by one BEFORE the beautiful 7 shows ups and you win ALL your bets in one orgasmic rush of money.

:|

which is better? if volatility is your concern - spreading bets out on the Don't side is clearly safer.

embrace the dark side Luke.

The don't side does play better at 1.364% HA va 1.414% for the pass side.

But the don't side get's hit 8:3 (25 pushes) at the come out roll, so you have to make it to the point to get your advantage. Once you are at the point, and lay your DP odds (say 3-4-5 odds) betting 7 units always to win 4,5,6 units), with the DC playing,

2,3: Win 1 unit - 8.33% (.0833 units)
11: Lose 1 - (-.0556 units)
7: Win point less one unit - 16.67% x average 4.16667 units won = (.6944 units).
Point: Lose 7 units - 11.57% x 7 units lost = (-.8102 units)
12 - no result
another number: DP to that number: 55.09%

Average win/loss after the 2nd roll: -.08796 units

That said, the effect of the DC at the time of the roll is to reduce your winnings, just like a come bet is a hedge to reduce losses at the time of the throw.

Once you have two DCs up with full odds (3-4-5, 6 units odds), you have 14 units up for grabs while the come player will have the two points plus max odds up for grabs, an average of 10.29 units. While the 7 is the likeliest throw, once you have two points out there, the odds of you hitting one of those two points before a 7 is 34.58% and the odds of hitting both points is 23.57%. The odds of hitting the 7 before either point is 41.85%.

So, if you get to establish two comes/don't comes before the 7,

The expected result then for a Pass/Come better is -.374 units.
The expected result for a Don't Pass/Come better is .374 units.

However, the HA of both is balanced out by the results of the first which does not favor the dark side.

Just using a simulator, seems like it is fairly difficult to build up a big board of "Don't come" bets simultaneosly, and while it feels good to see that, obviously you have a shooter that hasnt thrown a seven in a long time, something that should have favored betting "right". Then you can see your nice board get whittled away, too, while you wish you had been betting the Pass line and Come bets on this big streak.