Realistic Baccarat Sessions: Banker wins only 3-4 times more than Player?
November 8th, 2011 at 3:45:39 PM
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A few nights ago I read that on average the Banker bet in baccarat wins 3-4 more times than Player. I guess they mean from one new shuffle to the next. I thought the Banker bet would win a lot more than that! Do you think that's true? Or have you had much different experiences when you play for a long time?
November 8th, 2011 at 4:22:04 PM
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Quote: NewGamblerA few nights ago I read that on average the Banker bet in baccarat wins 3-4 more times than Player.
I guess they mean from one new shuffle to the next.
I thought the Banker bet would win a lot more than that!
Do you think that's true? Or have you had much different experiences when you play for a long time?
You can do the math using the Wizards Baccarat probabilities.
Here are numbers for 80 hands in a shoe:
80 hands
36.68776 Banker wins
35.69976 Player wins
7.61248 Ties
I have many 8 deck shoes (scorecards) from actual casino play and the average looks to be a difference of around 1 more win per shoe than player.
Here is a computer sim of 1 million shoes using 8 decks.
Shows the same average.
I included the distributions since the average does not happen all the time.
The negative numbers is a Player win shoe and the positive is for the Banker.
grouped data
items: 1,000,000
minimum value: -39.00
first quartile: -5.00
median: 1.00
third quartile: 7.00
maximum value: 43.00
mean value: 1.00
midrange: 2.00
range: 82.00
interquartile range: 12.00
mean abs deviation: 6.84
sample variance (n): 73.62
sample variance (n-1): 73.62
sample std dev (n): 8.58
sample std dev (n-1): 8.58
group middle freq freq/100
------------------------------------------------
-39.50 <= x < -38.50 -39.00 2 0.00%
-38.50 <= x < -37.50 -38.00 1 0.00%
-37.50 <= x < -36.50 -37.00 0
-36.50 <= x < -35.50 -36.00 4 0.00%
-35.50 <= x < -34.50 -35.00 5 0.00%
-34.50 <= x < -33.50 -34.00 7 0.00%
-33.50 <= x < -32.50 -33.00 11 0.00%
-32.50 <= x < -31.50 -32.00 13 0.00%
-31.50 <= x < -30.50 -31.00 38 0.00%
-30.50 <= x < -29.50 -30.00 53 0.01%
-29.50 <= x < -28.50 -29.00 87 0.01%
-28.50 <= x < -27.50 -28.00 173 0.02%
-27.50 <= x < -26.50 -27.00 220 0.02%
-26.50 <= x < -25.50 -26.00 322 0.03%
-25.50 <= x < -24.50 -25.00 422 0.04%
-24.50 <= x < -23.50 -24.00 664 0.07%
-23.50 <= x < -22.50 -23.00 946 0.09%
-22.50 <= x < -21.50 -22.00 1244 0.12%
-21.50 <= x < -20.50 -21.00 1703 0.17%
-20.50 <= x < -19.50 -20.00 2349 0.23%
-19.50 <= x < -18.50 -19.00 3106 0.31%
-18.50 <= x < -17.50 -18.00 3999 0.40%
-17.50 <= x < -16.50 -17.00 5217 0.52%
-16.50 <= x < -15.50 -16.00 6539 0.65%
-15.50 <= x < -14.50 -15.00 8122 0.81%
-14.50 <= x < -13.50 -14.00 10201 1.02%
-13.50 <= x < -12.50 -13.00 12253 1.23%
-12.50 <= x < -11.50 -12.00 15123 1.51%
-11.50 <= x < -10.50 -11.00 17659 1.77%
-10.50 <= x < -9.50 -10.00 20460 2.05%
-9.50 <= x < -8.50 -9.00 23339 2.33%
-8.50 <= x < -7.50 -8.00 26730 2.67%
-7.50 <= x < -6.50 -7.00 30349 3.03%
-6.50 <= x < -5.50 -6.00 33515 3.35%
-5.50 <= x < -4.50 -5.00 36528 3.65%
-4.50 <= x < -3.50 -4.00 39135 3.91%
-3.50 <= x < -2.50 -3.00 41850 4.18%
-2.50 <= x < -1.50 -2.00 43646 4.36%
-1.50 <= x < -0.50 -1.00 45135 4.51%
-0.50 <= x < 0.50 0.00 45982 4.60%
0.50 <= x < 1.50 1.00 46069 4.61%
1.50 <= x < 2.50 2.00 46250 4.62%
2.50 <= x < 3.50 3.00 45412 4.54%
3.50 <= x < 4.50 4.00 43465 4.35%
4.50 <= x < 5.50 5.00 41891 4.19%
5.50 <= x < 6.50 6.00 38896 3.89%
6.50 <= x < 7.50 7.00 36289 3.63%
7.50 <= x < 8.50 8.00 33344 3.33%
8.50 <= x < 9.50 9.00 29988 3.00%
9.50 <= x < 10.50 10.00 26844 2.68%
10.50 <= x < 11.50 11.00 23740 2.37%
11.50 <= x < 12.50 12.00 20572 2.06%
12.50 <= x < 13.50 13.00 17749 1.77%
13.50 <= x < 14.50 14.00 14785 1.48%
14.50 <= x < 15.50 15.00 12299 1.23%
15.50 <= x < 16.50 16.00 9906 0.99%
16.50 <= x < 17.50 17.00 8097 0.81%
17.50 <= x < 18.50 18.00 6664 0.67%
18.50 <= x < 19.50 19.00 5191 0.52%
19.50 <= x < 20.50 20.00 4014 0.40%
20.50 <= x < 21.50 21.00 3081 0.31%
21.50 <= x < 22.50 22.00 2332 0.23%
22.50 <= x < 23.50 23.00 1641 0.16%
23.50 <= x < 24.50 24.00 1298 0.13%
24.50 <= x < 25.50 25.00 955 0.10%
25.50 <= x < 26.50 26.00 654 0.07%
26.50 <= x < 27.50 27.00 462 0.05%
27.50 <= x < 28.50 28.00 314 0.03%
28.50 <= x < 29.50 29.00 227 0.02%
29.50 <= x < 30.50 30.00 139 0.01%
30.50 <= x < 31.50 31.00 102 0.01%
31.50 <= x < 32.50 32.00 66 0.01%
32.50 <= x < 33.50 33.00 48 0.00%
33.50 <= x < 34.50 34.00 27 0.00%
34.50 <= x < 35.50 35.00 17 0.00%
35.50 <= x < 36.50 36.00 8 0.00%
36.50 <= x < 37.50 37.00 2 0.00%
37.50 <= x < 38.50 38.00 2 0.00%
38.50 <= x < 39.50 39.00 5 0.00%
39.50 <= x < 40.50 40.00 1 0.00%
40.50 <= x < 41.50 41.00 0
41.50 <= x < 42.50 42.00 1 0.00%
42.50 <= x < 43.50 43.00 1 0.00%
cumulative
------------------------------------------------
-39.50 <= x < -38.50 -39.00 2 0.00%
-38.50 <= x < -37.50 -38.00 3 0.00%
-37.50 <= x < -36.50 -37.00 3 0.00%
-36.50 <= x < -35.50 -36.00 7 0.00%
-35.50 <= x < -34.50 -35.00 12 0.00%
-34.50 <= x < -33.50 -34.00 19 0.00%
-33.50 <= x < -32.50 -33.00 30 0.00%
-32.50 <= x < -31.50 -32.00 43 0.00%
-31.50 <= x < -30.50 -31.00 81 0.01%
-30.50 <= x < -29.50 -30.00 134 0.01%
-29.50 <= x < -28.50 -29.00 221 0.02%
-28.50 <= x < -27.50 -28.00 394 0.04%
-27.50 <= x < -26.50 -27.00 614 0.06%
-26.50 <= x < -25.50 -26.00 936 0.09%
-25.50 <= x < -24.50 -25.00 1358 0.14%
-24.50 <= x < -23.50 -24.00 2022 0.20%
-23.50 <= x < -22.50 -23.00 2968 0.30%
-22.50 <= x < -21.50 -22.00 4212 0.42%
-21.50 <= x < -20.50 -21.00 5915 0.59%
-20.50 <= x < -19.50 -20.00 8264 0.83%
-19.50 <= x < -18.50 -19.00 11370 1.14%
-18.50 <= x < -17.50 -18.00 15369 1.54%
-17.50 <= x < -16.50 -17.00 20586 2.06%
-16.50 <= x < -15.50 -16.00 27125 2.71%
-15.50 <= x < -14.50 -15.00 35247 3.52%
-14.50 <= x < -13.50 -14.00 45448 4.54%
-13.50 <= x < -12.50 -13.00 57701 5.77%
-12.50 <= x < -11.50 -12.00 72824 7.28%
-11.50 <= x < -10.50 -11.00 90483 9.05%
-10.50 <= x < -9.50 -10.00 110943 11.09%
-9.50 <= x < -8.50 -9.00 134282 13.43%
-8.50 <= x < -7.50 -8.00 161012 16.10%
-7.50 <= x < -6.50 -7.00 191361 19.14%
-6.50 <= x < -5.50 -6.00 224876 22.49%
-5.50 <= x < -4.50 -5.00 261404 26.14%
-4.50 <= x < -3.50 -4.00 300539 30.05%
-3.50 <= x < -2.50 -3.00 342389 34.24%
-2.50 <= x < -1.50 -2.00 386035 38.60%
-1.50 <= x < -0.50 -1.00 431170 43.12%
-0.50 <= x < 0.50 0.00 477152 47.72%
0.50 <= x < 1.50 1.00 523221 52.32%
1.50 <= x < 2.50 2.00 569471 56.95%
2.50 <= x < 3.50 3.00 614883 61.49%
3.50 <= x < 4.50 4.00 658348 65.83%
4.50 <= x < 5.50 5.00 700239 70.02%
5.50 <= x < 6.50 6.00 739135 73.91%
6.50 <= x < 7.50 7.00 775424 77.54%
7.50 <= x < 8.50 8.00 808768 80.88%
8.50 <= x < 9.50 9.00 838756 83.88%
9.50 <= x < 10.50 10.00 865600 86.56%
10.50 <= x < 11.50 11.00 889340 88.93%
11.50 <= x < 12.50 12.00 909912 90.99%
12.50 <= x < 13.50 13.00 927661 92.77%
13.50 <= x < 14.50 14.00 942446 94.24%
14.50 <= x < 15.50 15.00 954745 95.47%
15.50 <= x < 16.50 16.00 964651 96.47%
16.50 <= x < 17.50 17.00 972748 97.27%
17.50 <= x < 18.50 18.00 979412 97.94%
18.50 <= x < 19.50 19.00 984603 98.46%
19.50 <= x < 20.50 20.00 988617 98.86%
20.50 <= x < 21.50 21.00 991698 99.17%
21.50 <= x < 22.50 22.00 994030 99.40%
22.50 <= x < 23.50 23.00 995671 99.57%
23.50 <= x < 24.50 24.00 996969 99.70%
24.50 <= x < 25.50 25.00 997924 99.79%
25.50 <= x < 26.50 26.00 998578 99.86%
26.50 <= x < 27.50 27.00 999040 99.90%
27.50 <= x < 28.50 28.00 999354 99.94%
28.50 <= x < 29.50 29.00 999581 99.96%
29.50 <= x < 30.50 30.00 999720 99.97%
30.50 <= x < 31.50 31.00 999822 99.98%
31.50 <= x < 32.50 32.00 999888 99.99%
32.50 <= x < 33.50 33.00 999936 99.99%
33.50 <= x < 34.50 34.00 999963 100.00%
34.50 <= x < 35.50 35.00 999980 100.00%
35.50 <= x < 36.50 36.00 999988 100.00%
36.50 <= x < 37.50 37.00 999990 100.00%
37.50 <= x < 38.50 38.00 999992 100.00%
38.50 <= x < 39.50 39.00 999997 100.00%
39.50 <= x < 40.50 40.00 999998 100.00%
40.50 <= x < 41.50 41.00 999998 100.00%
41.50 <= x < 42.50 42.00 999999 100.00%
42.50 <= x < 43.50 43.00 1000000 100.00%
November 8th, 2011 at 4:34:25 PM
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If Player payout is 20:20 and Banker payout is 19:20 it doesn't really make all that much difference but over time Banker will win more often but that 1/20th (five percent) commission is "the equalizer".
November 8th, 2011 at 4:47:24 PM
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