Craps Scenario

I am flat betting the Don't Pass using a ten unit bankroll. My win goal is one unit. What are my chances of success if I limit betting to 25 decisions(or bust)? Two unit win goal?

As I understand the math, if you have ten units and make only DontPass bets without laying any odds or making any DontCome bets, you should be able to play for one hour at a very leisurely pace while enjoying having only a ten percent risk of ruin. At a strip casino's pace or if you were to include tips to the dealers and waitresses, you would have less than one hour of play.

Quote: demson79

I am flat betting the Don't Pass using a ten unit bankroll. My win goal is one unit. What are my chances of success if I limit betting to 25 decisions(or bust)? Two unit win goal?

Probability of win goal of 1 unit, 25 decisions (12 is not a decision), 10 unit bankroll.

Odds of winning don't pass (12 is not a decision): 49.2987%

Win 1 unit: 83.293%
Lose 1 unit: 2.234%
Lose 3 units: 3.654%
Lose 5 units: 3.780%
Lose 7 units: 2.745%
Lose 9 units: 1.003%
Lose 10 units: 3.291%
Expected Value: -0.0956 units

Probability of win goal of 2 units, 24 decisions, 10 unit bankroll (the 25th decision is not necessary as you cannot reach your goal on decision 25 as your number of units after 24 decisions will be EVEN).

Win 2 units: 67.050%
Even: 4.416%
Lose 2 units: 7.257%
Lose 4 units: 7.645%
Lose 6 units: 5.957%
Lose 8 units: 3.173%
Lose 10 units: 4.503%
Expected Value: -0.14967 units.

So as you can see, though you reach your goal well more than 50% of the time, because you can lose between 0 and 10 units, the expected value of this bet moves to the house (AS ALWAYS).