Craps Conundrum

This is not a request for advice so much as wondering if others have the same conundrum, but speak up if you see something incorrect below. I should be hitting a Casino soon and playing craps in particular. It's been a good solid year away from a crap table for me I think!

My M.O. previously has been to go to a $5 table, place bets on the Pass line with odds, and Come bets with odds, sometimes having multiple Come bets with odds going at the same time. Using the Wizard's info, if there are about 30 come out rolls per hour at the table, I should be averaging [I am going to guess] the equivalent of 45 bets an hour [sometimes not betting at all to keep it down]. With the effect of tipping etc I figure on average I should expect losses need not exceed 2% per bet meaning in the long run maybe $5 or less per hour in losses [plus a bit more by tipping better when winning].

When I think about that I start to accuse myself of being a Piker! Even though affected by the current economic situation it certainly would seem to be OK to upgrade to a $10 table! Nonetheless, at the $5 table, having multiple come bets with odds means sometimes I have around $75 at risk at the same time, so it is easy to see how the variance does not resemble $5 an hour at all in the least, whatsoever; and by experience even at $5 tables I want to have at least a $300 bankroll at a session.

At a $10 table, in addition to more excitement I have found the dealers are better, there are less errors, and the complimentary drinks come around a little more often. But now I need $600, IMO, for a bankroll. That just works on me too much, losing comfort with the amount. Am I too worried about Ruin? Is it going to even out over several sessions such that Ruin should not concern me so much? Anybody else experience this hesitation?

With your concern over your bankroll, it sounds like the answer is obvious with no math needed. Stick to the $5 tables and spare yourself a heart attack! The drink girls will still keep you liquored up, I promise.

If you are nervous about having $75 out on a table at once, you should stay at the $5 table. Even better, wait for a couple of come bets to hit before you get them out on all the numbers.

The temptation for come bets is to keep betting them. I like to keep a loss limit per come out roll which eliminates me from trying to put out a third or fourth come bet when none of them have hit.

You should probably play where you think you will have the most fun and can get your room and meals comped. If that place has a five dollar table, fine. Depends on what hours you want to play also since five dollar tables may disappear as the hour grows late.

The 30 rolls is a rather lowball estimate its probably higher in actuality. The figures that I posted were for a 10 percent Risk of Ruin, you might be willing to take a higher risk. And ofcourse if things go well for you on those first few rolls it won't matter much. The larger buyin is what you need to survive "reasonably adverse results". If you are instead lucky enough to be facing "reasonably favorable results" right off the bat, then you've extended your Time at Table without needing to dip too far into your buy-in if the tide later turns.

Thanks for all the input!

Quote: FleaStiff

The 30 rolls is a rather lowball estimate its probably higher in actuality...

I'm figuring about 100 rolls at the table per hour, about 30% being Come-Out rolls. The former can easily be higher with less players at the table, surely tables vary anyway. By placing additional Come bets is how I figure maybe 45, yes, that could be low.

Quote: FleaStiff

The figures that I posted were for a 10 percent Risk of Ruin, you might be willing to take a higher risk.

posted where?

Quote: FleaStiff

The larger buyin is what you need to survive "reasonably adverse results". If you are instead lucky enough to be facing "reasonably favorable results" right off the bat, then you've extended your Time at Table without needing to dip too far into your buy-in if the tide later turns.

I probably will have at least $600 on me but I figure it is time to stop for a while if I lose half of it in a session. There will be more sessions during the visit.

Quote: boymimbo

If you are nervous about having $75 out on a table at once, you should stay at the $5 table. Even better, wait for a couple of come bets to hit before you get them out on all the numbers.

The temptation for come bets is to keep betting them. I like to keep a loss limit per come out roll which eliminates me from trying to put out a third or fourth come bet when none of them have hit.

Good advice. Probably what I will do if at a $10 table is make sure only one Come bet is going at once in addition to any pass line bet.

Perhaps I will start a new thread about a recent trip, but just to give some feedback on one point, I would say that my estimate of participating in about 45 come-out rolls per hour was reasonably accurate based on about 100 rolls per hour, about 30% being come-out, but adding a certain amount of extra Come bets.

FleaStiff said he thought my estimate of come-out rolls would be a little low. I appreciate that input, but I noted that at full tables it was typically about one roll per minute for long lengths of time, then perhaps a few rolls that went quicker. I didn't stand there with a stopwatch! At one table in particular the type of betting going on held up the next roll considerably, and might have averaged 90 seconds between rolls. That would be only 40 rolls per hour! This was balanced by some tables that were full then emptying out to only a couple of players at times, and other things like that. Overall I'd say I stuck to my goal pretty well.

My purpose was to have as much fun as possible without forcing the expected value to kick in as more of a certainty; in other words, warding off the obvious fact that the more gambling you do at a Crap Table the more sure you are to be eventually losing. I see no point in making such a number of excessive bets that my trip is doomed to poor results. So I looked for full tables and simply did not place bets at times. No one objected to the latter. When the mood struck me, I would place a lot of bets to have fun. All were Pass or Come bets with odds. In three sessions I figure I wagered as much as $3000 total, probably less; & includes the odds bets. I was up a bit at the end of the second session but by the end of the third took a whipping, but less than what I had set as my limit.

More later if I can flatter myself to think some of you would be interested.

OG~~

I'm interested.

I've thought about taking a roll of pennies or $1 chips with me to the tables to track how many line bets I make in an hour. I figure it varies between 50-100 bets resolved depending on the speed on the shooter, dealers, etc. Your data is very helpful. I play the don't pass and two don't come bets per shooter exclusively. If they make a point, I don't put it back up until the hit the main point; then I start over again. I lay max odds on every DP/DC and only play $5 tables.

I figure my loss to be around $7-$10 hour and the variance is actually quite managable as the Don't Pass is less volatile than the Pass.

If I get my odds bet figured into my comp allowance I can usually do quite well at the tables.

Good luck!

-T

At all times it is supposed to be fun, so the amount risked should be a fairly comfortable one. We all find that winning is far more fun than losing but we all know the casino has the edge.

At the Venetian you will find excellent dealers, though probably not five dollar tables and certainly not at busy times. At busy times the rate of play is lower since there will be more people at the table. The "general rule" is that Strip casinos move the dice fast, downtown move the dice noticeably slower and some locals casinos are downright leisurely though perhaps this is due to largely break-in dealers. (From personal experience I can state that the absolutely fasted dice are on the Gambling Day Cruise to Nowhere boats and that only a wee bit slower are the dice at the Isle of Capri in Biloxi, a casino that I refuse to ever re-enter).

The figures on rolls per hour are ofcourse estimates and are the figures used for the casino's comp programs which are probably rounded off for convenience of calculation.

The number of betting units needed to avoid Risk of Ruin are presented below. Its a custom to present such tables at the 90 percent level. That is, for a ten percent Risk of Ruin. The assumption for craps is perfect play by both dealers and players, PassLine bet only. (No Come Bets). I do NOT know the mathematically correct adjustments to make to the table to accommodate my customary betting style of one line bet with 2x odds and two Come bets each with 2x odds. Nor do I know the correct adjustments, if any, to make for playing from the Don'ts. Dealer error, players error, dealer tips, waitress tips, probably would require adjustments too. I assume fatigue and alcohol intake would yield different error adjustments for a four hour session than for a one hour session.

Risk of Ruin: (30 roll rate, which is believed to be a standard but conservative assumption).
Craps for one hour: 10 units
Craps for two hours: 13 units
Craps for four hours: 20 units.

Quote: FleaStiff

...the Isle of Capri in Biloxi, a casino that I refuse to ever re-enter

What happened there?

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