Craps continuous come bets
At some points you’ll have 5 or 6 bets out there at once, so it “feels” like it should rate 5-6x higher than if you just did the pass line and waited. Similarly I’d expect your average loss per roll to be higher with continuous come bets vs just pass line and wait, but how much higher?
You are going to have to explain what "continuous pass and come bets" is. It sounds like a 3-point Molly, but you mention the possibility of 5 or 6 bets on the table at once. Under what conditions do you make a Pass or Come bet on the next roll?
I think I figured out the expected loss: since every single roll you are placing a bet, regardless of the roll (since pass lines can’t push), the per roll expected loss should just be equal to the “bet placed” edge. So each roll I should expect to lose 1.41% (of the value of ONE come bet)
As far as rating goes, that’s more of a mystery that I’m curious if anyone knows…
Quote: TheguyoverthereYou’re just always placing come bets (or pass line if puck is off), regardless of how many come bets you have. So at some point you might have a come bet on every box number plus the pass line bet.
I think I figured out the expected loss: since every single roll you are placing a bet, regardless of the roll (since pass lines can’t push), the per roll expected loss should just be equal to the “bet placed” edge. So each roll I should expect to lose 1.41% (of the value of ONE come bet)
As far as rating goes, that’s more of a mystery that I’m curious if anyone knows…
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Exactly - since you are making one bet per roll, the expected loss per roll is 1.41% of one bet...at least until you stop making bets at the end of your session.
As for rating, presumably it would be 1.41% x the amount of your bet x the percentage counted for comps x the expected number of rolls per hour.
Quote: TheguyoverthereHow should one calculate the average loss per roll for a strategy of continuous pass and come bets? Along that lines, how do you think casinos will rate a player doing continuous come bets?
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I'm too muttonheaded to see any real difference between $50 on each of 6 pass/come bets or $300 on the line.
Anyone want to sort me out?
(I do understand that chips are moving back and forth more often, and there are some points you may prefer to take odds on.)
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: TheguyoverthereYou’re just always placing come bets (or pass line if puck is off), regardless of how many come bets you have. So at some point you might have a come bet on every box number plus the pass line bet.
I think I figured out the expected loss: since every single roll you are placing a bet, regardless of the roll (since pass lines can’t push), the per roll expected loss should just be equal to the “bet placed” edge. So each roll I should expect to lose 1.41% (of the value of ONE come bet)
As far as rating goes, that’s more of a mystery that I’m curious if anyone knows…
link to original post
Exactly - since you are making one bet per roll, the expected loss per roll is 1.41% of one bet...at least until you stop making bets at the end of your session.
As for rating, presumably it would be 1.41% x the amount of your bet x the percentage counted for comps x the expected number of rolls per hour.
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It’s 1.41% per bet resolved not per roll. There’s a thread on here where Ace2 calculates the average number of pass/come bets if you are continuously betting the come. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Wizard has a post on this over on the Wizard of Odds site. Has OP tried googling it?
@Dieter, the difference in increasing your bet size on the pass line is by how much should you increase it? Not by 5 or 6, but by the average number of bets in play with this system.
Quote: unJonQuote: ThatDonGuyQuote: TheguyoverthereYou’re just always placing come bets (or pass line if puck is off), regardless of how many come bets you have. So at some point you might have a come bet on every box number plus the pass line bet.
I think I figured out the expected loss: since every single roll you are placing a bet, regardless of the roll (since pass lines can’t push), the per roll expected loss should just be equal to the “bet placed” edge. So each roll I should expect to lose 1.41% (of the value of ONE come bet)
As far as rating goes, that’s more of a mystery that I’m curious if anyone knows…
link to original post
Exactly - since you are making one bet per roll, the expected loss per roll is 1.41% of one bet...at least until you stop making bets at the end of your session.
As for rating, presumably it would be 1.41% x the amount of your bet x the percentage counted for comps x the expected number of rolls per hour.
link to original post
It’s 1.41% per bet resolved not per roll. There’s a thread on here where Ace2 calculates the average number of pass/come bets if you are continuously betting the come. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Wizard has a post on this over on the Wizard of Odds site. Has OP tried googling it?
@Dieter, the difference in increasing your bet size on the pass line is by how much should you increase it? Not by 5 or 6, but by the average number of bets in play with this system.
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Keep in mind that there is a new bet on every roll. As I said, the only time it stops being one bet per roll is at the end of the session.
Ace2 wrote on 11/10/23: For instance. If you play for ten hours (1000 rolls) making DC bets continuously,
you’ll have 1000 bets resolved.
To have that many resolved bets playing DP only, you must play 1000 * 557/165 = 3376 rolls on average.
The expected win is the same either way, but the standard deviation
for continuously betting DC is 1000^.5 * 1.15 = 36.4.
The SD for DP only is 1000^.5 = 31.6 using bets resolved and also 3376^.5 * (165/557)^.5 = 31.6 using rolls.
So making a total of 1000 bets via continuous DC your SD is 36.4,
which is 15% higher than making 1000 DP bets.
Quote: unJon
@Dieter, the difference in increasing your bet size on the pass line is by how much should you increase it? Not by 5 or 6, but by the average number of bets in play with this system.
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Ok...
So 5 $50 bets is different than 1 $250 bet how?
So 4 $50 bets is different than 1 $200 bet how?
The roughly 3 1/3 rolls to resolve would balance out around $200 on the line to $60 on each continuous bet, right?
Quote: DieterQuote: unJon
@Dieter, the difference in increasing your bet size on the pass line is by how much should you increase it? Not by 5 or 6, but by the average number of bets in play with this system.
link to original post
Ok...
So 5 $50 bets is different than 1 $250 bet how?
So 4 $50 bets is different than 1 $200 bet how?
The roughly 3 1/3 rolls to resolve would balance out around $200 on the line to $60 on each continuous bet, right?
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Yes that’s the right number. On average, a continuous come better has 3.38 bets in play. So that’s a way to think about what the fair ratings multiplier should be.
So in theory a $50 continuous come bettor should be rated like a a $169 pass line only bettor.
Hopefully players get rated at 4x their continuous bet...
(4 bets working in between sevens clearing the board should be common, right?)
I ask just cause I’ve been playing a $10 continuous come with $50 odds and wanted to know how much it’s costing me per hour… seems to be about $14.10 an hour which isn’t bad for how much excitement those $50 odds can bring.
I also noticed after a 3 hour session doing this I got $14 or so in food comp, about 1/3 of my expected loss which aligns pretty well with how casinos generally comp things.
