Theguyoverthere
Theguyoverthere
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May 18th, 2025 at 2:00:11 PM permalink
How should one calculate the average loss per roll for a strategy of continuous pass and come bets? Along that lines, how do you think casinos will rate a player doing continuous come bets?

At some points you’ll have 5 or 6 bets out there at once, so it “feels” like it should rate 5-6x higher than if you just did the pass line and waited. Similarly I’d expect your average loss per roll to be higher with continuous come bets vs just pass line and wait, but how much higher?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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May 18th, 2025 at 6:03:33 PM permalink
Each bet is exposing the same amount to the house edge, so you "should" be rated slightly higher if you have many bets in play at once for a significant amount of time. As far as the casino is concerned, each bet is a separate thing; it doesn't care that the same person is making all of the bets.

You are going to have to explain what "continuous pass and come bets" is. It sounds like a 3-point Molly, but you mention the possibility of 5 or 6 bets on the table at once. Under what conditions do you make a Pass or Come bet on the next roll?
Theguyoverthere
Theguyoverthere
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May 18th, 2025 at 7:06:42 PM permalink
You’re just always placing come bets (or pass line if puck is off), regardless of how many come bets you have. So at some point you might have a come bet on every box number plus the pass line bet.

I think I figured out the expected loss: since every single roll you are placing a bet, regardless of the roll (since pass lines can’t push), the per roll expected loss should just be equal to the “bet placed” edge. So each roll I should expect to lose 1.41% (of the value of ONE come bet)

As far as rating goes, that’s more of a mystery that I’m curious if anyone knows…
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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May 18th, 2025 at 7:22:17 PM permalink
Quote: Theguyoverthere

You’re just always placing come bets (or pass line if puck is off), regardless of how many come bets you have. So at some point you might have a come bet on every box number plus the pass line bet.

I think I figured out the expected loss: since every single roll you are placing a bet, regardless of the roll (since pass lines can’t push), the per roll expected loss should just be equal to the “bet placed” edge. So each roll I should expect to lose 1.41% (of the value of ONE come bet)

As far as rating goes, that’s more of a mystery that I’m curious if anyone knows…
link to original post


Exactly - since you are making one bet per roll, the expected loss per roll is 1.41% of one bet...at least until you stop making bets at the end of your session.

As for rating, presumably it would be 1.41% x the amount of your bet x the percentage counted for comps x the expected number of rolls per hour.
Dieter
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Dieter
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May 18th, 2025 at 8:33:38 PM permalink
Quote: Theguyoverthere

How should one calculate the average loss per roll for a strategy of continuous pass and come bets? Along that lines, how do you think casinos will rate a player doing continuous come bets?
link to original post



I'm too muttonheaded to see any real difference between $50 on each of 6 pass/come bets or $300 on the line.

Anyone want to sort me out?
(I do understand that chips are moving back and forth more often, and there are some points you may prefer to take odds on.)
May the cards fall in your favor.
unJon
unJon
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May 18th, 2025 at 8:37:18 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Theguyoverthere

You’re just always placing come bets (or pass line if puck is off), regardless of how many come bets you have. So at some point you might have a come bet on every box number plus the pass line bet.

I think I figured out the expected loss: since every single roll you are placing a bet, regardless of the roll (since pass lines can’t push), the per roll expected loss should just be equal to the “bet placed” edge. So each roll I should expect to lose 1.41% (of the value of ONE come bet)

As far as rating goes, that’s more of a mystery that I’m curious if anyone knows…
link to original post


Exactly - since you are making one bet per roll, the expected loss per roll is 1.41% of one bet...at least until you stop making bets at the end of your session.

As for rating, presumably it would be 1.41% x the amount of your bet x the percentage counted for comps x the expected number of rolls per hour.
link to original post



It’s 1.41% per bet resolved not per roll. There’s a thread on here where Ace2 calculates the average number of pass/come bets if you are continuously betting the come. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Wizard has a post on this over on the Wizard of Odds site. Has OP tried googling it?

@Dieter, the difference in increasing your bet size on the pass line is by how much should you increase it? Not by 5 or 6, but by the average number of bets in play with this system.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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May 18th, 2025 at 10:06:30 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Theguyoverthere

You’re just always placing come bets (or pass line if puck is off), regardless of how many come bets you have. So at some point you might have a come bet on every box number plus the pass line bet.

I think I figured out the expected loss: since every single roll you are placing a bet, regardless of the roll (since pass lines can’t push), the per roll expected loss should just be equal to the “bet placed” edge. So each roll I should expect to lose 1.41% (of the value of ONE come bet)

As far as rating goes, that’s more of a mystery that I’m curious if anyone knows…
link to original post


Exactly - since you are making one bet per roll, the expected loss per roll is 1.41% of one bet...at least until you stop making bets at the end of your session.

As for rating, presumably it would be 1.41% x the amount of your bet x the percentage counted for comps x the expected number of rolls per hour.
link to original post



It’s 1.41% per bet resolved not per roll. There’s a thread on here where Ace2 calculates the average number of pass/come bets if you are continuously betting the come. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Wizard has a post on this over on the Wizard of Odds site. Has OP tried googling it?

@Dieter, the difference in increasing your bet size on the pass line is by how much should you increase it? Not by 5 or 6, but by the average number of bets in play with this system.
link to original post


Keep in mind that there is a new bet on every roll. As I said, the only time it stops being one bet per roll is at the end of the session.
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