tyler498
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November 23rd, 2023 at 12:58:54 AM permalink
Hey guys, I saw this article and it blew my mind!
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/foreign-syndicate-taiwan-malaysia-baccarat-formula-mbs-casino-3938776
Seems like the reason of the arrest was the use of the devise. And laws seem to be similar to the US, so if they didn't use a devise but their brains instead, it'd be legal.
This begs the question, what kind of formula could do this? or did they think they had an advantage, but didnt and just got lucky with some betting system?
Mission146
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November 23rd, 2023 at 3:02:01 AM permalink
Quote: tyler498

Hey guys, I saw this article and it blew my mind!
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/foreign-syndicate-taiwan-malaysia-baccarat-formula-mbs-casino-3938776
Seems like the reason of the arrest was the use of the devise. And laws seem to be similar to the US, so if they didn't use a devise but their brains instead, it'd be legal.
This begs the question, what kind of formula could do this? or did they think they had an advantage, but didnt and just got lucky with some betting system?
link to original post



Honestly, it was tough to get much of the specifics from the article. In theory, they could have just been using the WoO Baccarat Calculator:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/calculator/

Baccarat has an Effect-of-Removal at play, which makes it theoretically countable. It’s just very difficult to calculate without using some sort of software. Technically, Blackjack is a bit tough to calculate, but the Effect of Removal for Blackjack is much stronger, so card counts like High/Low can be used.

In the normal course of play, the limited number of opportunities and difficulty in even approximating when you have an edge make counting Baccarat generally undesirable, but with perfect information (and any sort of program to do the calculation) it becomes more feasible.

Of course, something else might have been going on. I’m just saying straight up counting is a possibility and would be relatively easy to execute.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Dieter
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November 23rd, 2023 at 4:01:16 AM permalink
Quote: tyler498

Hey guys, I saw this article and it blew my mind!
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/foreign-syndicate-taiwan-malaysia-baccarat-formula-mbs-casino-3938776
Seems like the reason of the arrest was the use of the devise. And laws seem to be similar to the US, so if they didn't use a devise but their brains instead, it'd be legal.
This begs the question, what kind of formula could do this? or did they think they had an advantage, but didnt and just got lucky with some betting system?
link to original post



The article mentions things about shuffler internals, seemingly inviting the reader to draw an incorrect conclusion about shuffle sequencing.

Mission's idea about effects of removal seems more likely.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Tanko
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November 23rd, 2023 at 4:30:20 AM permalink
I don't believe they had any advantage over the game. More likely they were betting large and got lucky. Like this guy.
heatmap
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November 23rd, 2023 at 5:37:07 AM permalink
Its also possible someone slipped decks in the shuffler that were marked and they were able to read the cards

Very unlikely though
arrgy
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November 23rd, 2023 at 5:44:27 AM permalink
I'm sorry, if I just won 500K, I am not posting a picture from the inside of a Ramada Inn with my boyfriend and the twin beds.
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November 23rd, 2023 at 6:34:19 AM permalink
The game was a baccarat variant known as 7-UP baccarat. I wrote about it (it's chapter 53 in my book) -- very vulnerable to counting. That's why a CSM was used. It may be that the CSM latency was enough to beat the game using computer-perfect play, or they had some other info. Not clear.

My 7-UP article is posted on 888, but they have not kept up with my articles and the images are now gone. Sad.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-7-up-baccarat
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
Mission146
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November 23rd, 2023 at 7:24:03 AM permalink
Quote: Tanko

I don't believe they had any advantage over the game. More likely they were betting large and got lucky. Like this guy.
link to original post



Taking everything in the article as true (which is impossible to know), it occurs to me that they wouldn't need to communicate bets from the room to people at the table if the entire plan was to just get lucky.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wizard
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November 23rd, 2023 at 7:39:01 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

The game was a baccarat variant known as 7-UP baccarat. I wrote about it (it's chapter 53 in my book) -- very vulnerable to counting. That's why a CSM was used. It may be that the CSM latency was enough to beat the game using computer-perfect play, or they had some other info. Not clear.

My 7-UP article is posted on 888, but they have not kept up with my articles and the images are now gone. Sad.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-7-up-baccarat
link to original post



Although the article mentions a shuffler, it doesn't say a CSM was actually used. I suspect there was not one. The whole article was badly written and I doubt the author really understood how they did it. The use of the word "formula" in the title is very misleading. I've noticed that journalists in general have a hard time grasping mathematical topics. Whenever I get asked anything gambling related by a journalist I give them a long factual explanation. They then try to boil it down a soundbite.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teliot
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November 23rd, 2023 at 8:43:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Although the article mentions a shuffler, it doesn't say a CSM was actually used.

Yes, it was dealt from a CSM. At this casino the game of 7-UP baccarat has been dealt from a CSM for at least the last 8 years. They got hit very hard early on, and by the time my article came out they were already using a CSM. I visited this casino in 2015 and witnessed it myself.

Also, you'll have to trust that I have some inside sources on this incident.

And yes, I agree, the article is very poorly written. Pretty much every article on this case (there have been a few) is clueless.
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gordonm888
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November 23rd, 2023 at 9:00:34 AM permalink
Back to shuffle tracking: Is there anything in the shuffler device that produces a repetitively consistent 'riffle' that, given a knowledge of the cards being re-entered into the shuffler, would allow a calculation of the sequence of cards being dealt? Or at least allows one to create probabilities for clumping of Aces and Deuces that are favorable to the player?
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Wizard
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November 23rd, 2023 at 9:03:17 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Quote: Wizard

Although the article mentions a shuffler, it doesn't say a CSM was actually used.

Yes, it was dealt from a CSM. At this casino the game of 7-UP baccarat has been dealt from a CSM for at least the last 8 years. They got hit very hard early on, and by the time my article came out they were already using a CSM. I visited this casino in 2015 and witnessed it myself.

Also, you'll have to trust that I have some inside sources on this incident.



Sorry, I didn't know you were directly familiar with the game. I absolutely take your word for it.

link to original post

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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November 23rd, 2023 at 9:05:19 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Back to shuffle tracking: Is there anything in the shuffler device that produces a repetitively consistent 'riffle' that, given a knowledge of the cards being re-entered into the shuffler, would allow a calculation of the sequence of cards being dealt? Or at least allows one to create probabilities for clumping of Aces and Deuces that are favorable to the player?
link to original post



This is probably a topic some would prefer not discussed. I do think some shufflers, perhaps discontinued models, were vulnerable to players with good eyes and ears and knew what to look and listen for.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
teliot
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November 23rd, 2023 at 9:05:45 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

Back to shuffle tracking: Is there anything in the shuffler device that produces a repetitively consistent 'riffle' that, given a knowledge of the cards being re-entered into the shuffler, would allow a calculation of the sequence of cards being dealt? Or at least allows one to create probabilities for clumping of Aces and Deuces that are favorable to the player?
link to original post

Some shufflers have had issues allowing individual cards to be tracked. There is a famous case of this being used to track Aces and Kings in the game of "War" dealt from a CSM. I've also demonstrated other deficiencies to surveillance in older shufflers. The smartest APs know all of this and much more. There is a famous research paper that was written by a Stanford mathematician a few years back showing that one very popular shuffler was highly trackable and that the only way to use it safely was to put the cards through the shuffler twice. I am not familiar with the latest/greatest protections. My knowledge pretty much ends in 2017.
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heatmap
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November 23rd, 2023 at 10:22:31 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

The game was a baccarat variant known as 7-UP baccarat. I wrote about it (it's chapter 53 in my book) -- very vulnerable to counting. That's why a CSM was used. It may be that the CSM latency was enough to beat the game using computer-perfect play, or they had some other info. Not clear.

My 7-UP article is posted on 888, but they have not kept up with my articles and the images are now gone. Sad.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-7-up-baccarat
link to original post



these images? (btw this image format is so new your browser may not be able to view them)








gordonm888
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November 23rd, 2023 at 11:04:43 AM permalink
I actually have your book, AAP, and was reading Ch. 53 when I opened this thread and saw your tables. the very tables I was looking at while reading.

BTW, it is worth mentioning that your tables assume that the player only bets when the trigger count is reached, and otherwise bets zero. This is an extreme gameplay assumption which maximizes the calculated advantage but is impractical in a real baccarat game.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
100xOdds
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November 24th, 2023 at 3:41:36 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

The game was a baccarat variant known as 7-UP baccarat. I wrote about it (it's chapter 53 in my book) -- very vulnerable to counting. That's why a CSM was used. It may be that the CSM latency was enough to beat the game using computer-perfect play, or they had some other info. Not clear.

My 7-UP article is posted on 888, but they have not kept up with my articles and the images are now gone. Sad.
https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-7-up-baccarat
link to original post


csm latency? as in the shuffled cards arent re-introduced to the general card pool for a few rounds?
And how did they get caught?

Wonder if others are doing this at the other casino (Resorts world Singapore)?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Dobrij
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November 24th, 2023 at 3:54:50 AM permalink
I just don’t understand why they needed to use the computer remotely? If you can do this right at the table using more offline counting methods
Mission146
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November 24th, 2023 at 4:39:09 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

I actually have your book, AAP, and was reading Ch. 53 when I opened this thread and saw your tables. the very tables I was looking at while reading.

BTW, it is worth mentioning that your tables assume that the player only bets when the trigger count is reached, and otherwise bets zero. This is an extreme gameplay assumption which maximizes the calculated advantage but is impractical in a real baccarat game.
link to original post



Not to answer for him, but Teliot does that with most of the plays he discusses; it’s just for proof of concept purposes. Something has to be able to be theoretically advantageous in order to be actually advantageous; if it can’t even be advantageous in theory, then it doesn’t merit further investigation.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
100xOdds
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November 24th, 2023 at 5:07:39 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Something has to be able to be theoretically advantageous in order to be actually advantageous; if it can’t even be advantageous in theory, then it doesn’t merit further investigation.
link to original post


You mean he won't look into my theory that you can beat 000 roulette with volume? Lots of volume...
:)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
teliot
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November 24th, 2023 at 5:14:09 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Mission146

Something has to be able to be theoretically advantageous in order to be actually advantageous; if it can’t even be advantageous in theory, then it doesn’t merit further investigation.
link to original post


You mean he won't look into my theory that you can beat 000 roulette with volume? Lots of volume...
:)
link to original post

My favorite casino game is the change machine. 0% house edge. I never lose!
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MrV
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November 25th, 2023 at 6:12:03 PM permalink
A bit closer to home ...

Baccarat cheating scandal at Ramparts / Summerlin.

"Two baccarat players at the casino had been winning more than usual. Surveillance footage showed that dealers... were flashing the players gaming cards and revealing the outcome of the game before the players placed their final bets."

article
"What, me worry?"
Dieter
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November 25th, 2023 at 6:40:17 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

A bit closer to home ...

Baccarat cheating scandal at Ramparts / Summerlin.

"Two baccarat players at the casino had been winning more than usual. Surveillance footage showed that dealers... were flashing the players gaming cards and revealing the outcome of the game before the players placed their final bets."

article
link to original post



(shaking my head)
Cheating is wrong, but only getting $12k is absurd.
May the cards fall in your favor.
gordonm888
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November 25th, 2023 at 7:51:01 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: gordonm888

I actually have your book, AAP, and was reading Ch. 53 when I opened this thread and saw your tables. the very tables I was looking at while reading.

BTW, it is worth mentioning that your tables assume that the player only bets when the trigger count is reached, and otherwise bets zero. This is an extreme gameplay assumption which maximizes the calculated advantage but is impractical in a real baccarat game.
link to original post



Not to answer for him, but Teliot does that with most of the plays he discusses; it’s just for proof of concept purposes. Something has to be able to be theoretically advantageous in order to be actually advantageous; if it can’t even be advantageous in theory, then it doesn’t merit further investigation.
link to original post



Its like quoting a player edge for blackjack assuming the player never lays a wager except when the true count is +1 or larger - as if they and their confederates all 'Wong out' on all negative and zero true counts. Most people assume a range of wager size variation, say 4x, or 8x when quoting a BJ counter's theoretical edge, but TEliot's assumptions are like quoting an infinite range of wager size variation. And when he posts as he did above, he is not even disclosing the assumption that wager size is zero whenever the casino has an edge.

The effect of those kind of assumptions in these kind of calculations is to overstate the menace and threat of an AP team to a casino. Exaggerating the AP threat to casinos seems to imply that it would be an especially good business decision to hire a whip-smart, dashingly handsome expert as a consultant for purposes of game protection - which was one of the business lines that Teliot was in at the time.

There is nothing novel in the statements I am making; most APs were reading Teliot's blog at the time and understood why Teliot was doing whatever it was that he was doing. And, I do recommend buying his Advanced Advantage Play book if you are an AP, because IMO the content is useful on its own merits. But when he posts his results here as he did above I also think it is extraordinarily fair and proper for someone else (like me in this instance) to report his unstated underlying assumptions so that unwitting readers are not led astray.
Last edited by: gordonm888 on Nov 25, 2023
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Bjkai21
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March 8th, 2024 at 2:20:04 PM permalink
Interested to learn how to beat shuffle machines (CSMs)? Can pm me to find out.
Zcore13
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March 8th, 2024 at 8:22:40 PM permalink
Quote: Bjkai21

Interested to learn how to beat shuffle machines (CSMs)? Can pm me to find out.
link to original post



How about we just get a bunch of money together that says you can't do it, maybe 10-1 on your money. Then you prove you can.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Bjkai21
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March 8th, 2024 at 10:17:05 PM permalink
Sure please do...I am more than happy to accept the challenge.
DRich
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March 9th, 2024 at 8:59:48 AM permalink
Quote: Bjkai21

Sure please do...I am more than happy to accept the challenge.
link to original post



Which brands and models of shufflers can you beat regularly?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
ChallengedMilly
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March 10th, 2024 at 12:40:56 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: MrV

A bit closer to home ...

Baccarat cheating scandal at Ramparts / Summerlin.

"Two baccarat players at the casino had been winning more than usual. Surveillance footage showed that dealers... were flashing the players gaming cards and revealing the outcome of the game before the players placed their final bets."

article
link to original post



(shaking my head)
Cheating is wrong, but only getting $12k is absurd.
link to original post

I'm guessing they wanted to remain under the radar and were only taking a small profit in the hopes of not being noticed. Logical to a degree.
Dieter
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March 10th, 2024 at 2:01:29 PM permalink
Quote: ChallengedMilly

Quote: Dieter

Quote: MrV

A bit closer to home ...

Baccarat cheating scandal at Ramparts / Summerlin.

"Two baccarat players at the casino had been winning more than usual. Surveillance footage showed that dealers... were flashing the players gaming cards and revealing the outcome of the game before the players placed their final bets."

article
link to original post



(shaking my head)
Cheating is wrong, but only getting $12k is absurd.
link to original post

I'm guessing they wanted to remain under the radar and were only taking a small profit in the hopes of not being noticed. Logical to a degree.
link to original post



Maybe.
Except... they didn't go small enough to avoid getting caught, and they didn't go big enough to retire comfortably on a beach in a non-extradition territory.



edit: typo extradition. Sheesh.
Last edited by: Dieter on Mar 10, 2024
May the cards fall in your favor.
luckyjohn
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March 13th, 2024 at 6:56:44 AM permalink
In MBS baccarat tables use shoes and not CSM. CSM are for blackjacks. There is a method of winning in both baccarat and blackjack better than card counting but it is almost impossible to do with an average human brain. It is to know exactly what cards have been dealt and what remains in the shoe, the exact number of cards for each value. With this information, one can determine the outcome with high probability toward the end of the shoe using complex analysis of the remaining cards in shoe (that is why need a computer). I think what these people did is to communicate to the ones in hotel room every card that had come out of the shoe. Then the people in the room will key the info into their computer and with some algorithm, the computer is able to predict banker or player in the next round near the end of shoes. This turned the house edge around totally to the player advantage with the help of computer, and that is why this is illegal.
TigerWu
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March 13th, 2024 at 1:01:39 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Quote: Bjkai21

Sure please do...I am more than happy to accept the challenge.
link to original post



Which brands and models of shufflers can you beat regularly?
link to original post



I think you scared him off....lol
acw
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June 17th, 2024 at 7:37:00 PM permalink
https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2024/03/18/jail-for-malaysian-linked-to-group-that-won-over-rm153mil-at-marina-bay-sands-casino-by-recording-cards

Quote:

The formula would then generate an output that predicted the game’s next outcome. Court documents did not state how the formula worked.



Damn, where is the proof that these shufflers are not as random as promised by the manufacturers?
darkoz
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June 17th, 2024 at 10:23:08 PM permalink
Quote: acw

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2024/03/18/jail-for-malaysian-linked-to-group-that-won-over-rm153mil-at-marina-bay-sands-casino-by-recording-cards

Quote:

The formula would then generate an output that predicted the game’s next outcome. Court documents did not state how the formula worked.



Damn, where is the proof that these shufflers are not as random as promised by the manufacturers?
link to original post



I suspect the authorities didn't want to fully discuss how it worked but it sounds more like "chip reading" than a formula per se.

There was a similar case years ago where a team member would cut the cards. The cards had micro chips in them to keep track of cards and prevent cheating by inserting a foreign card into a stack

Sounds good but the team member cutting the cards wore a ring with a computer reader which read the exact order of the cards. This info was then transmitted to a location outside the casino which then could accurately predict the winning order of the cards.

This style they used sounds very similar. I suspect they figured out how to read the cards microchips in a stack without the physical contact of cutting the cards previously required.
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Bjkai21
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July 14th, 2024 at 11:57:05 PM permalink
Shufflemaster one2six anytime
Bjkai21
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July 14th, 2024 at 11:57:39 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: DRich

Quote: Bjkai21

Sure please do...I am more than happy to accept the challenge.
link to original post



Which brands and models of shufflers can you beat regularly?
link to original post



I think you scared him off....lol
link to original post



Shufflemaster one2six anytime
DavidCasinoMast
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July 16th, 2024 at 1:36:09 AM permalink
but its impossible to process similar data as the device does, with a human brain
Bjkai21
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July 16th, 2024 at 1:44:33 AM permalink
That's not true and also because you have no idea about the method behind it.
Archvaldor
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July 18th, 2024 at 3:39:12 AM permalink
"There is a method of winning in both baccarat and blackjack better than card counting but it is almost impossible to do with an average human brain. "

It requires some work but it is far from impossible. Most of the significantly favorable bets are on the tie at the conclusion of the deal in the less 20 cards or so.

Most of these subsets are easily identified being composed of entirely even subsets or with only a few ranks remaining. There are a small but significant number of exceptions which are harder to identify and these have to be memorized.You can practice this with the WOO calculator just inputting random subsets.

That said I doubt that was what happened here. You need excellent penetration and a huge bet spread. While the absolute returns are good you will be making very few actual bets and it takes a while to get into the long run. It is a strong play for a well-financed syndicate thinking long-term that is struggling to get decent absolute returns from blackjack but not someone trying to make a fast buck.
7up
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July 18th, 2024 at 6:33:49 AM permalink
Quote: Bjkai21

Interested to learn how to beat shuffle machines (CSMs)? Can pm me to find out.
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Anything you can tell to the public?
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