Mathematical Analysis of Baccarat Option Betting
July 23rd, 2023 at 3:50:16 PM
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In the 8 deck baccarat game,
If an ace card (specific card) is not drawn by the end of the game,
The house edge of a pair bet or a tie bet gradually decreases as the game progresses. It may change to (-) eventually.
Baccarat's mathematical analysis data does not take this into account.
Do you agree with this idea?
If an ace card (specific card) is not drawn by the end of the game,
The house edge of a pair bet or a tie bet gradually decreases as the game progresses. It may change to (-) eventually.
Baccarat's mathematical analysis data does not take this into account.
Do you agree with this idea?
July 23rd, 2023 at 4:33:53 PM
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Yes.
In general, as the shoe draws down, if there are one or more ranks that have a disproportionately large number of cards remaining then the probability of drawing two or more cards that are a pair will be increased over a case with a 'flat distribution' of ranks.
This table gives the probability of getting a pair in two dealt cards as a function of the number of cards(decks) remaining and the distribution of ranks.
The first three rows show the probability of a pair in two dealt cards for 8 decks, 4 decks and one deck, assuming that all the ranks have an equal number of cards remaining. The pair prob. goes from about 7.5% down to about 5.9%
The last row shows a case in which there are 52 cards remaining, but there are 3 cards each of the ranks 2 -K and 16 Aces. The pair probability vaults up to about 11.8% for this case.
In general, as the shoe draws down, if there are one or more ranks that have a disproportionately large number of cards remaining then the probability of drawing two or more cards that are a pair will be increased over a case with a 'flat distribution' of ranks.
This table gives the probability of getting a pair in two dealt cards as a function of the number of cards(decks) remaining and the distribution of ranks.
| Total cards | cards/rank; 2-K | # of aces | Prob of a pair, 2 cards dealt |
|---|---|---|---|
| 416 | 32 | 32 | 0.074698795 |
| 208 | 16 | 16 | 0.072463768 |
| 52 | 4 | 4 | 0.058823529 |
| 52 | 3 | 16 | 0.117647059 |
The first three rows show the probability of a pair in two dealt cards for 8 decks, 4 decks and one deck, assuming that all the ranks have an equal number of cards remaining. The pair prob. goes from about 7.5% down to about 5.9%
The last row shows a case in which there are 52 cards remaining, but there are 3 cards each of the ranks 2 -K and 16 Aces. The pair probability vaults up to about 11.8% for this case.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
July 23rd, 2023 at 5:16:08 PM
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you're right.
So I don't understand why they don't use an automatic shuffle machine to shuffle the used cards every game.
The house edge will constantly change depending on the number of remaining cards.
If this happens in a baccarat game, the casino may suffer huge losses in the remaining games.
I believe that games in a casino have to be mathematically perfect.
So I don't understand why they don't use an automatic shuffle machine to shuffle the used cards every game.
The house edge will constantly change depending on the number of remaining cards.
If this happens in a baccarat game, the casino may suffer huge losses in the remaining games.
I believe that games in a casino have to be mathematically perfect.
