## Poll

36 members have voted

7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
• Posts: 198
December 24th, 2010 at 12:45:04 PM permalink
Quote: Martin

One day I'm shooting (from the pass line) and my hand lasted through three stick changes. I cashed out about \$500 not including buy-in - a guy at the other end of the table cashed out \$22 thousand. All of it made on my roll since he came in just as I started with about a grand buy-in. He wasn't playing the pass line at all. I thought about that for a long time and came to the conclusion that I was doing something really, really wrong. I was leaving opportunity on the table.

I stand by my contention.

So, ME - What do you play - come or place and why?

You held the dice for an hour or more and a guy that bought in for \$1000 made ONLY \$22,000.
Should have been over \$220,000!
The problem is, that same guy lost way over \$30,000 or more before he won his \$22,000.

In my over 30 years of dealing Dice, the loudest players when it comes to the best ways of winning were the place bettors.
The largest consistent losers...the place bettors.
The worst tippers...you guessed it...the place bettors.

Believe what you want.
Why not add Dice Control to the formula and break the casinos while you are at it.

All of us craps players, except probably MathExtremist and the Wizard, misstate, or lie if you will, about how much we win and how much we lose.
ALWAYS, we win more than we actually do win and we lose less that we actually do lose.
7 winner chicken dinner!
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
• Posts: 6526
December 24th, 2010 at 12:46:55 PM permalink
Quote: Martin

Your first statement is correct. However in my book the money in craps is in the volatility. The value add is the opportunity to put the same money back to work over and over and over again. Yes there is a probability of losing your buy-in - as I have said that is a risk - I accept the risk but I am after the biggest reward. The biggest reward comes from the opportunity to play the hand for all it is worth.

I seldom lost money when I played a simple game of don't pass + 2 or 3X odds. If I went down eventually the pendulum swung and I got back even again. Sometimes it took hours. On a good day I might have cashed out a couple hundred ahead. One day I'm shooting (from the pass line) and my hand lasted through three stick changes. I cashed out about \$500 not including buy-in - a guy at the other end of the table cashed out \$22 thousand. All of it made on my roll since he came in just as I started with about a grand buy-in. He wasn't playing the pass line at all. I thought about that for a long time and came to the conclusion that I was doing something really, really wrong. I was leaving opportunity on the table.

I stand by my contention.

So, ME - What do you play - come or place and why?

You're right about the volatility, but if that's what you're after then come + full odds is clearly the way to go. Far more volatility/EV than the place bets. I play come bets almost exclusively, and I press my odds and then my flat bets. There is nothing like going off-and-on with the bases loaded, pocketing part of the winnings and then pressing the rest. The optimal press rate is phi, the golden mean, but that's about 62% -- hard to calculate with chips. You can approximate by pressing half every win.

Here's the thing - if you're comparing flat pass/come + odds to pressed place bets, there's no question which has the higher winning potential. It's the place bets. Now, place bets are easy to press - you do it when you win. Come bets are harder to press, but once you figure out how to do it, it's more fun (imo). More work too, but nobody said craps was simple.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Martin
Joined: Nov 20, 2010
• Posts: 149
December 24th, 2010 at 1:14:42 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

You held the dice for an hour or more and a guy that bought in for \$1000 made ONLY \$22,000.
Should have been over \$220,000!
The problem is, that same guy lost way over \$30,000 or more before he won his \$22,000.

In my over 30 years of dealing Dice, the loudest players when it comes to the best was of winning were the place bettors.
The largest consistent losers...the place bettors.
The worst tippers...you guessed it...the place bettors.

Believe what you want.
Why not add Dice Control to the formula and break the casinos while you are at it.

All of us craps players, except probably MathExtremist and the Wizard, misstate, or lie if you will, about how much we win and how much we lose.
ALWAYS, we win more than we actually do win and we lose less that we actually do lose.

Now that's not necessary. I was at the table I saw what he cashed in - it was a lot more than I did - it truly is that simple. I don't know why he didn't get 220000 or even 2.5 million I wasn't watching his bets.

I never lie about what I win or lose.

As for dice control - I'm not sure where that came from since I never mentioned it - nor did I say anything about breaking casinos. All I said was I think that place betting and come betting is the better bet for someone such as myself who likes the volatility and the ability to keep a lot of money in play.

Why you take offense at such simple statements is beyond me.

Please don't bother responding - you are no one to me.
Martin
Joined: Nov 20, 2010
• Posts: 149
December 24th, 2010 at 1:18:11 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

You're right about the volatility, but if that's what you're after then come + full odds is clearly the way to go. Far more volatility/EV than the place bets. I play come bets almost exclusively, and I press my odds and then my flat bets. There is nothing like going off-and-on with the bases loaded, pocketing part of the winnings and then pressing the rest. The optimal press rate is phi, the golden mean, but that's about 62% -- hard to calculate with chips. You can approximate by pressing half every win.

Here's the thing - if you're comparing flat pass/come + odds to pressed place bets, there's no question which has the higher winning potential. It's the place bets. Now, place bets are easy to press - you do it when you win. Come bets are harder to press, but once you figure out how to do it, it's more fun (imo). More work too, but nobody said craps was simple.

I tried come betting on my most recent trip to Vegas and found out that I have a talent for it that I didn't know existed. I started out simple with 1x odds and as I won I kept increasing the odds until I had max odds on all my numbers. I participated in a number of long hands including two that went almost back to back. The only thing I don't like about the come bet is the fact that between points if you get a 7 you have to start over again on the next roll.
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
• Posts: 7183
December 24th, 2010 at 2:07:00 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

... All of us craps players, except probably MathExtremist and the Wizard, misstate, or lie if you will, about how much we win and how much we lose. ALWAYS, we win more than we actually do win and we lose less that we actually do lose.

I nominate myself for that "honest" category also.

I have been reporting all year that I am very much a low roller and that I have been ahead all year (up until my visit to Las Vegas last week). I don't know whether I ever reported the actual amount I was ahead or not. I do think I mentioned before my latest trip that I needed and sorta expected to lose so that I didn't have any tax obligation. ;-) When I met with the Wizard, I mentioned that I was making significant progress toward that "goal", and in case I didn't report it in my broken-up trip report sections, I was indeed "successful" in losing enough this trip to wind up in the red for the year. (Doesn't sound like something to brag about, does it?)

Anyway, here are the specifics: During 2010, I made nine trips during which I visited casinos. I played 59 sessions of craps (28 winners, 26 losers, and 5 break even) and 10 sessions of blackjack, my backup game (2 winners, 5 losers, and 3 break even). Individual sessions ranged between winning \$685 and losing \$400 (I play reasonably conservatively). Overall, I lost a net of \$190 (\$45 at craps and \$145 at blackjack) for the year -- a total of less than a single buy-in amount after 69 sessions and an average of \$2.75 total expense at the tables per session!

I think I definitely got far more than \$190 worth of entertainment from my time in the casinos this year, and much of this \$190 that I dropped cannot really be called a gambling loss. I collect souvenir \$1 chips, and I added 44 new chips to my collection this year; those are included in the \$190 that I bought in for but did not cash out. That cuts the actual amount I left at the tables by almost 25%. Also, it is extremely likely that my total tokes (of chips while playing, I don't track that) greatly exceeded the shortfall for the year -- I highly doubt there was a single session that I toked so little as \$3, so I think the casinos actually lost money when I played. I'm in it for the fun anyway.

Anyone else care to give the honest results of their total gambling this year? We don't need any more of the BS about how someone made a fortune playing five times a week with their secret "system" at roulette or baccarat.
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
• Posts: 6526
December 24th, 2010 at 2:11:32 PM permalink
Quote: Martin

I tried come betting on my most recent trip to Vegas and found out that I have a talent for it that I didn't know existed. I started out simple with 1x odds and as I won I kept increasing the odds until I had max odds on all my numbers. I participated in a number of long hands including two that went almost back to back. The only thing I don't like about the come bet is the fact that between points if you get a 7 you have to start over again on the next roll.

That's usually true, though if you're at a casino that allows put bets and 5x odds (or greater) you can keep things going by re-upping the come bets. Ask your casino whether they allow this.

I tend to use the winner 7 that knocks down my points (but returns my odds) as a good opportunity to check where my bankroll is. If you've had any sort of hand whatsoever, you'll get back a big stack of money in odds bets. If it's a good time to stop, I'm done. There's no rule you have to keep betting on a shooter until the seven-out.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 3412
December 24th, 2010 at 6:52:09 PM permalink
Quote: Martin

Time - you have heard the saying "time is money" haven't you? During any given roll money on the rail is not earning. Therefore mathematically it's value in the game is 0. Only money on the table earns - if you have already taken or laid max odds on the line bet then your only choice is place or come betting in order to maximize your opportunity. Thus in a half hour you can make some money or lose your buy-in. If one assumes the buy-in to be the level of risk that you are willing to take then the loss of the buy-in is just the price of doing business on that particular date/time.

I know the math, I accept the risk, and in the same half hour that some might make a couple of bucks on a pass line bet I might make a couple of thousand on my come bets. Who maximized the opportunity and who did not?

Same math, same rules, just a different approach - I stand by my contention - there is no money on the pass line - it is all in the little boxes by the dealers.

Where you are confused is that the opportunity cost is that of MAKING the bet, not of waiting for the result--but in any case, pass line bets and come bets take an equal amount of time/rolls to resolve.

It is fallacious thinking to believe that come bets are somehow more likely to win than pass line bets. In reality, each type of bet has the exact same probability of winning.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Martin
Joined: Nov 20, 2010
• Posts: 149
December 24th, 2010 at 7:58:32 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Where you are confused is that the opportunity cost is that of MAKING the bet, not of waiting for the result--but in any case, pass line bets and come bets take an equal amount of time/rolls to resolve.

It is fallacious thinking to believe that come bets are somehow more likely to win than pass line bets. In reality, each type of bet has the exact same probability of winning.

JFC! I never said that come bets are somehow more likely to win than pass line bets you stupid moron. And also please don't bother to reply - you are no one to me.
Doc
Joined: Feb 27, 2010
• Posts: 7183
December 24th, 2010 at 9:09:08 PM permalink
Quote: Martin

... you stupid moron. ...

I can't believe it -- we have yet another member actually trying to get suspended.
EvenBob
Joined: Jul 18, 2010