UTH Simple Strategy Exceptions

So my mini-obsession with UTH continues, this year’s winter passtime I guess. I notice using a Grosjean simple strategy combined with a now-well-tested no-counting-outs kicker strategy results in long periods in which the player will not encounter exceptions*. I take the warning events at the Wizard trainer to the Wizard UTH calculator for confirmation of exceptions.

I have been wondering just how often you typically go before getting an exception, so I’ve been keeping track. I realize something meaningful would require many, many thousands of hands at the very least, which isn’t going to happen. Instead I’m just checking it out to see what happens, and I’ll post it… it’s value ‘is what it is’. How long this will continue I don’t know. The data should be accurate except the count of hands might be longer than shown due to error, but not the other way, mind.

First one, I ran with no exceptions until the 58th hand :

2x/flop, flop-made pair of 2s [player 2h 10d] vs A2J in spades is a calculator check, while Grosjean simple strat is a raise. Calc. shows -0.809238 vs -0.737406, delta 0.071832

Conclusion after dickering with calculator: Grosjean extended strategy, which I don’t have, probably says check if against 3 to a flush with low made pairs at the 2x decision.

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Ran into another exception on the 69th next.

2x/flop decision. Player has Ks4d, flop was 2 red aces and 6s. Grosjean simple strat says to check, Calc says raise. Dickering shows any lower board pair will have Calc indicating check. K,2 and K,3 also will have Calc showing raise. K,5 would have already been bet 4x.

Calc shows -0.044658 vs 0.152337, delta 0.107679 for the particular situation.

Conclusion: chances of King,4 improving plus chances of King being best kicker too strong here. Perhaps extended Grosjean strategy covers this.



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Stay tuned, I plan to post the next exception encountered

*For the flop/2x strategy, I follow a Grosjean simple strategy as close as I can [I have his strategy card] and for the 1x/River Grosjean unless it’s player kicker only, then I use the no-counting-outs kicker strategy you can find in my latest blogpost.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

This is a social game so players need to use collusion to gain an edge. It’s also possible to exploit dealer’s mistakes because many new dealers don’t know this game very well. To collude, we need to count both kicker ranks and dealer outs. For example, when somebody has a pocket aces hand, they will release the information to the whole table and a collusion player will use this to gain an edge. This game is volatile though. It costs a lot.

For sure I'm making no claim a perfect strategy would be +EV

I am saying a player can come pretty close to playing as good as that calculator can play, and that if you don't want to count outs, you can do that without hurting yourself. So far, haven't found it come across an exception for the above number of hands. If I do, I'll compare it to counting outs.

Quote: odiousgambit

2x/flop decision. Player has Ks4d, flop was 2 red aces and 6s. Grosjean simple strat says to check, Calc says raise. Dickering shows any lower board pair will have Calc indicating check. K,2 and K,3 also will have Calc showing raise. K,5 would have already been bet 4x.



>>>

Stay tuned, I plan to post the next exception encountered

*For the flop/2x strategy, I follow a Grosjean simple strategy as close as I can [I have his strategy card] and for the 1x/River Grosjean unless it’s player kicker only, then I use the no-counting-outs kicker strategy you can find in my latest blogpost.
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My basic strategy for this hand is Raise. For a paired board, you always raise 2X with a nut kicker.

Quote: aceside

Quote: odiousgambit

2x/flop decision. Player has Ks4d, flop was 2 red aces and 6s. Grosjean simple strat says to check, Calc says raise. Dickering shows any lower board pair will have Calc indicating check. K,2 and K,3 also will have Calc showing raise. K,5 would have already been bet 4x.
link to original post

My basic strategy for this hand is Raise. For a paired board, you always raise 2X with a nut kicker.
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Very good, sure works here. Note lower board pairs have the Calc indicate to check, but that makes the Ace the nut kicker. A single exception is not going to be put on a simple strategy?

For a paired board, you may also raise 2X with both second and fourth nut kickers.

so you would 2x raise with the boards [A♥ A♦K♣] and your hole cards [J♣9♠]? Or does the king on the board cancel your jack? For the board's [A♥ A♦3♣] and your [Q♣10♠] you would have already 4x raised.

Simple basic strategy says you should 2x raise on any 2 pair or better but should you still with the board's [K♥K♦K♣] and your [2♣3♠]?

If you are wondering how to get ♥♦♣♠ keyboard users can easily by holding the alt key, pressing [3,4,5, or 6] on the numpad, and letting go of alt.

Quote: richodude

so you would 2x raise with the boards [A♥ A♦K♣] and your hole cards [J♣9♠]?

I think you are asking Aceside, I will only point out Grosjean is slow to 'allow' you to bet with a pair on board, very clearly indicating you need more than kickers, but need '4 to the' ... [what's a good abbreviation for 'flush or open-ended straight' without typing all that out] ? Wizard calc says to 'check' for your example and the delta is 0.024927

Exception to Grosjean rule noted upthread

Quote:

Or does the king on the board cancel your jack? For the board's [A♥ A♦3♣] and your [Q♣10♠] you would have already 4x raised.

Simple basic strategy says you should 2x raise on any 2 pair or better but should you still with the board's [K♥K♦K♣] and your [2♣3♠]?

Grosjean says you need a King and probably would say buy your own strategy card LOL. One thing to remember is you and the dealer have trips, both. Same for a pair on board, so raising on those alone makes no sense

Quote:

If you are wondering how to get ♥♦♣♠ keyboard users can easily by holding the alt key, pressing [3,4,5, or 6] on the numpad, and letting go of alt.

alas, did not work for me . I can copy and paste it , ♥♦♣♠ , so might do that in future.
link to original post

Quote: odiousgambit

Quote: richodude

so you would 2x raise with the boards [A♥ A♦K♣] and your hole cards [J♣9♠]?

I think you are asking Aceside, I will only point out Grosjean is slow to 'allow' you to bet with a pair on board, very clearly indicating you need more than kickers, but need '4 to the' ... [what's a good abbreviation for 'flush or open-ended straight' without typing all that out] ? Wizard calc says to 'check' for your example and the delta is 0.024927

Exception to Grosjean rule noted upthread

Quote:

Or does the king on the board cancel your jack? For the board's [A♥ A♦3♣] and your [Q♣10♠] you would have already 4x raised.

Simple basic strategy says you should 2x raise on any 2 pair or better but should you still with the board's [K♥K♦K♣] and your [2♣3♠]?

Grosjean says you need a King and probably would say buy your own strategy card LOL. One thing to remember is you and the dealer have trips, both. Same for a pair on board, so raising on those alone makes no sense

Quote:

If you are wondering how to get ♥♦♣♠ keyboard users can easily by holding the alt key, pressing [3,4,5, or 6] on the numpad, and letting go of alt.

alas, did not work for me . I can copy and paste it , ♥♦♣♠ , so might do that in future.
link to original post

link to original post

Yes was responding to aceside. I hate that hitting reply on a message doesn’t reply to that message. Alt codes only work with numpad and not the numbers above your keyboard. Numlock might play a role too but I’m on mobile rn

According to Wizard online calculator, you would 2x Check with the boards [A♥ A♦K♣] and your hole cards [J♣9♠]; You would 2x Raise with the boards [A♥ A♦Q♣] and your hole cards [J♣9♠].

I need to point out that player hand [J♣9♠] is at the boarder of 4X raise/check and thus needs to use collusion information to play this hand. Player may also use collusion to decide 2X raise/check. For example, if someone is holding an Ace or King card, player may raise, I guess. This particular hand doesn’t fit well into my basic strategy for 2X raise.

next exception is after another 73 hands. Keeps getting a bit longer till we get one, and, yes, suspiciously closely spaced so far 58th, 69th, now 73rd... can't account for that

2x/flop decision yet again. Player has 4♣,3♦, board flop is K,7,3 all spades, getting flop-made pair for player. Grosjean simple strat says to raise, Calc says check. Dickering shows replacing 3s with 4s has Calc indicating raise.

Calc shows -0.794778 vs -0.718408, delta 0.07637 for the exception situation.

Conclusion: obviously the pair of 3s is too weak against 3 to flush, yet exception too rare to put on a simple strategy card

Player has 4♣,3♦, board flop is K♠,7♠,3♠, online calculator says to check 2X.
Player has 4♣,3♦, board flop is K♠,7♠,3♥, online calculator says to raise 2X.
Player has Q♣,3♦, board flop is K♠,7♠,3♠, online calculator says to check 2X.

Neither counting outs nor counting kicker ranks works in this situation.

By the way, what is Dickering?

Quote: aceside

Player has 4♣,3♦, board flop is K♠,7♠,3♠, online calculator says to check 2X.
Player has 4♣,3♦, board flop is K♠,7♠,3♥, online calculator says to raise 2X.
Player has Q♣,3♦, board flop is K♠,7♠,3♠, online calculator says to check 2X.

Neither counting outs nor counting kicker ranks works in this situation.

interesting

Quote:

By the way, what is Dickering?

in this case, from google search, definition 1, but you have to be aware of some usage I grew up with, more like 'tinkering', could be VERY colloquial but I'm usually understood ... what you did above would be considered that. Part of Def 2, 'toy with', works too

dick·er
/ˈdikər/
Learn to pronounce
verbNorth American
verb: dicker; 3rd person present: dickers; past tense: dickered; past participle: dickered; gerund or present participle: dickering

1.
engage in petty argument or bargaining.
"she advised him not to dicker over the extra fee"
2.
treat something casually or irresponsibly; toy with something.
"there was no dickering with the lyrics"


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next exception is after another 6 hands.

1x decision this time. Player has Q♠,4♠, board cards K♠,7♥,9♥,5♣,3♠, Calc says fold, Grosjean/Wizard have you count 21+ outs and there are 19, so you bet 1x with those strategies. With the no-counting-outs strategy you have only the Aces, so that is a bet 1x also. All strategies say to fold against the “4-tos”*, and as a matter of practice, personally I fold K,3 and Q,4 [or less] against 3 to straight-flushes, as I have stated in the blogpost. This is not such though, so the no-counting-outs strategy also fails. However, the EV cost is negligible. As for, ahem, toying with it I see Q5 again works for the strategies [changing the 5♠ to 2♠]

Calc shows -2.007071 vs -2.000000, delta 0.007071

Conclusion: Q with low card gets in trouble again. I see this much less with K and low card and don’t see it hardly at all with Jack and low card. In the cited situation, hard to say it matters . Might hear from Aceside about second nut kickers

* a usage I am adopting and I hope everyone can get. Henceforth I will use “the 4-tos” meaning 4 to flush and 4 to open ended straights without asterisk.

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder