JackSpade
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September 27th, 2022 at 2:35:45 PM permalink
Unlike most other games, roulette offers the opportunity to structure bets so that they generate a greater than 50% chance of winning something on every betting round. For example, betting on 2 dozens (24 numbers) will generate a net win more often than not. Of course, this doesn't generate a positive expected value since wins on 2 dozens pay only 0.5:1.

Covering 24 numbers on the wheel reduces variance compared to betting on fewer. It makes long losing streaks less likely compared to only betting on red, for example. Hitting 10 blacks (or 9 blacks plus a green) in a row could be devastating to small bankrolls and negative progression systems. And it will happen to anyone who plays roulette long enough. But one could go a lifetime without losing 10 in a row betting 2 dozens.

Another way to reduce variance is to bet 1 unit each on red, odd, 1-18. This is superior to betting on dozens when playing at casinos that offer La Partage.

Instead of a binary win/loss outcome, each spin will result in a result in a return of -3, -1, +1, or +3 units. For example, a red 14 would return +1 and a black 29, -1.

Most of the time, the player will be bouncing around from -1 to +1 spins. On a single-zero wheel, a total loss (-3) occurs on only 16.2% of spins (0, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28 black).

In the event of a (-3) loss, the player can raise to 2-unit sizing for a total of 6 units until a profit of any size is achieved. In the event of another (-3) loss, the player can raise to 3-unit bets, then to 4 units, etc.

This method does NOT guarantee a net profit, of course. Only martingale on even-money bets with an infinite bankroll can do that. This method makes raising relatively rare and relatively modest (it follows a linear progression rather than exponential). It sets a modest objective of a achieving a single win on a raised bet before reverting to 1-unit bets.

The JackSpade method helps to sustain a bankroll through a long grind for purposes of generating comp value. It also gives the player the opportunity to leverage variance successfully by achieving wins on raised bets following losses.

Thoughts?
TigerWu
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September 27th, 2022 at 3:06:05 PM permalink
Yeah, Single 0 Even money bets are where it's at.... 1.36% HE. Even the French bets are good for covering large chunks of the wheel.

If I'm on a Double 0, the Outside bets are still my favorite.
Gandler
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September 27th, 2022 at 3:24:44 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Yeah, Single 0 Even money bets are where it's at.... 1.36% HE. Even the French bets are good for covering large chunks of the wheel.

If I'm on a Double 0, the Outside bets are still my favorite.
link to original post



Double Zeros can be better than Single Zero if they have surrender (I think that is the term) where some Double Zeros wheels you only lose half your bet if you have an outside bet and a zero hits. This is very common in AC, and it makes the HE even slightly better than single zero roulette (when this is the case if you bet only black/red or any outside bet, you are better off at a double zero roulette, obviously inside bets single zero is always better).

I have heard rumors that there are single zero roulette wheels with surrender, but usually only in high limit areas in certain casinos (I have never seen one, and probably never will), but it would not surprise me if this exists since such rooms often have special rules for various games with lower HE.
JackSpade
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September 27th, 2022 at 3:33:25 PM permalink
The high-end MGM properties in Vegas have single-0 with surrender (la partage). MGM Grand used to have it for $25, but now it's a $100 minimum. It's $100 for each outside bet. So $300 would be required to bet red, odd, 1-18.
TigerWu
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September 27th, 2022 at 3:34:48 PM permalink
Quote: Gandler


I have heard rumors that there are single zero roulette wheels with surrender, but usually only in high limit areas in certain casinos (I have never seen one, and probably never will), but it would not surprise me if this exists since such rooms often have special rules for various games with lower HE.
link to original post



Yeah, that rule is common in Vegas for the Single 0 wheels. And you're right, most of them are in high limit rooms, with a $100 minimum, but Bellagio has a Single 0 wheel on the main floor as well.
JackSpade
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September 27th, 2022 at 3:48:32 PM permalink
The Plaza downtown has single-0 for $25, but I don't think it offers surrender. The Cromwell used to have single-0 for $25, but it didn't offer surrender. Caesars properties don't seem to offer single-0 anywhere on their main floors anymore.

But Caesars is better for baccarat players. They offer the regular commission game at Paris on the main floor. The panda no-commission variant at Cromwell and Rio offers slightly better odds on banker bets. The no-commission variant at MGM properties is worse than regular baccarat. Gold Coast (Boyd Gaming) by the Rio actually has the best selection of baccarat games I've found for low minimums - including live-dealer stadium baccarat. Gold Coast now attracts a lot of Asians.
Ace2
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September 27th, 2022 at 4:50:06 PM permalink
Quote: JackSpade

Unlike most other games, roulette offers the opportunity to structure bets so that they generate a greater than 50% chance of winning something on every betting round.

In craps laying any number, don’t pass and don’t come have greater than 50% chance of winning. Laying the 4/10 gives you a 67% chance. In baccarat the banker bet has > 50 %.

No need to structure anything, but you could structure all kinds of craps bets to give you a >50% chance. Some of the forum members even believe that gives them an edge over the casino
It’s all about making that GTA
Ace2
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September 27th, 2022 at 5:09:24 PM permalink
Can someone please explain (with an example) how a surrender rule could get the vig below European single zero roulette’s of 1/74 = 1.35%
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
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September 27th, 2022 at 5:25:04 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Can someone please explain (with an example) how a surrender rule could get the vig below European single zero roulette’s of 1/74 = 1.35%
link to original post



I thought he said double zero with surrender slightly better than single zero without surrender.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Gandler
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September 27th, 2022 at 6:46:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Can someone please explain (with an example) how a surrender rule could get the vig below European single zero roulette’s of 1/74 = 1.35%
link to original post



I could only find this to compare European standards:

https://roadgambler.com/roulette/roulette-la-partage-en-prison-explained/

"LA PARTAGE" appears to be what we call surrender in America, and "EN PRISON" is a different set of rules (you keep your money on your bet if zero hits and you either lose it all or win based on the next spin, I have never seen this in America). It seems people refer to the prison model when saying European roulette.

Surrender (or La Partage) is better than the prison model, and the less zeros the better (but double zero surrender roulette is still better than single zero with no modifiers).

Surrender is always better than no modifier, you lose less of your bet on some losses.
EvenBob
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September 27th, 2022 at 10:38:49 PM permalink
Quote: JackSpade



The JackSpade method helps to sustain a bankroll through a long grind for purposes of generating comp value.

Thoughts?
link to original post



I don't do comps, never had a player's card in my life. Comps are for ploppies.. I prefer roulette method that pays the bills..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AxelWolf
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September 27th, 2022 at 11:19:24 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: JackSpade



The JackSpade method helps to sustain a bankroll through a long grind for purposes of generating comp value.

Thoughts?
link to original post



I don't do comps, never had a player's card in my life. Comps are for ploppies.. I prefer roulette method that pays the bills..
link to original post

You do understand that there have been people who have lived off of RFB and comp points for years while earning significant money on top of that via legitimate advantage play? Saving 30k a year on bills is ploppy?

People have played slightly -EV/ break even/ +EV while using their player's card all while earning comps that they were able to turn into cash. I'm not talking about a few thousand I'm talking about 10's-100's of thousands. That's not ploppy IMO.

Ploppy to me is having the holy grail of all betting systems/Methods for years and only dinking out enough to pay their low rent bills.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
EvenBob
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September 27th, 2022 at 11:42:59 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

You do understand that there have been people who have lived off of RFB and comp points for years while earning significant money on top of that via legitimate advantage play?
link to original post



And what a wonderful life that must be. Go for it, knock yourself out. I hate casinos and the amount of time you would have to spend there to get that many comps sounds like being in prison to me.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
AxelWolf
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September 28th, 2022 at 12:15:34 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AxelWolf

You do understand that there have been people who have lived off of RFB and comp points for years while earning significant money on top of that via legitimate advantage play?
link to original post



And what a wonderful life that must be. Go for it, knock yourself out. I hate casinos and the amount of time you would have to spend there to get that many comps sounds like being in prison to me.
link to original post

It's not for me either. But it's not a ploppy thing to do so. In many situations, it's a ploppy thing not to do so.

Depending on the situation anywhere from 3-12 hours a day but broken up however you want it.

Yes, it would be like a job(most people have them), but without a boss or defined schedule.

Even when I was in the perfect situation to do so, I still didn't like the idea of not having my own place. It's hard dating girls or having a relationship in a hotel living situation.

You don't have to stay at the casinos to get value. I just used the comps for entertainment, dates, shows, sporting events, gifts, cashable items(such as gold jewelry), collectibles, etc.

I have stayed for weeks to months(I didn't really count) at a casino using RFB, but I always maintained my own place.

FYI I have looked into some Michigan online casinos in the past, you're leaving all kinds of free value/money on the table.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
EvenBob
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September 28th, 2022 at 12:50:29 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf



FYI I have looked into some Michigan online casinos in the past, you're leaving all kinds of free value/money on the table.
link to original post



Nope. Reason being if they're going to ban you the first thing they're going to accuse you of is abusing the bonuses even if you didn't do it. If you never use the bonuses you'll never be accused of it. It ain't worth it so I never even look. I don't need to, you don't get it. When I play roulette I'm the casino. Let that sink in. I have the edge they do not.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
OnceDear
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September 28th, 2022 at 2:05:41 AM permalink
EvenBob, AxelWolf:
Warning for thread hijacking!
There is already an active thread debating EvenBob and his 'Method'
Take your discussion of the merits of
EvenBob's 'Method' back there.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
AxelWolf
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September 28th, 2022 at 3:36:44 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Quote: AxelWolf



FYI I have looked into some Michigan online casinos in the past, you're leaving all kinds of free value/money on the table.
link to original post



Nope. Reason being if they're going to ban you the first thing they're going to accuse you of is abusing the bonuses even if you didn't do it. If you never use the bonuses you'll never be accused of it. It ain't worth it so I never even look. I don't need to, you don't get it. When I play roulette I'm the casino. Let that sink in. I have the edge they do not.
link to original post

I'm sure they are shaking in their boots.

People have taken 10's of thousands in bonuses and won 10's of thousands in a short period of time without an issue.

I remember when you were all worried Bovada would be looking at you for beating their roulette str8 up, meanwhile, just one person alone made over 400k abusing their crypto bonuses.

But hey, you're doing great paying off a few hundy a month in bills. You be making it rain....
in pennies.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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September 28th, 2022 at 3:37:08 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

EvenBob, AxelWolf:
Warning for thread hijacking!
There is already an active thread debating EvenBob and his 'Method'
Take your discussion of the merits of
EvenBob's 'Method' back there.
link to original post

Oh, sorry.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AlanMendelson
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September 28th, 2022 at 3:54:24 AM permalink
Quote: JackSpade

Unlike most other games, roulette offers the opportunity to structure bets so that they generate a greater than 50% chance of winning something on every betting round.

link to original post



If winning something on every round is your goal you can do that on craps but you'll never come out ahead.

In fact I can guarantee you a win of something on every roll of the dice until you're broke.
TigerWu
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September 28th, 2022 at 8:27:43 AM permalink
There are, or at least used to be, some casinos in Europe that had triple-levels of prison. If a zero hit on an Even money bet, you went to the first level of prison. If a zero hit a second time, you went to the second level. Third zero, third level of prison. I can't remember what was supposed to happen after that if zero somehow hit a fourth time.

I wonder what the odds are on that version of Roulette?
JackSpade
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September 28th, 2022 at 4:52:08 PM permalink
Guy claims to have won $20k playing 000 roulette at multiple casinos:



Somehow I doubt he's properly accounting for his losses when arriving at that figure. Anyone who plays 000 has already demonstrated that they aren't keen on math.

He'd get better odds by blind raising 4x every hand in ultimate texas holdem with a trips bet. Someone who played that way would be seen as a maniac. Even though playing 000 roulette is statistically crazier, casinos have effectively normalized it like $50 resort fees and $12 bottles of water.
darkoz
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September 28th, 2022 at 5:29:24 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

There are, or at least used to be, some casinos in Europe that had triple-levels of prison. If a zero hit on an Even money bet, you went to the first level of prison. If a zero hit a second time, you went to the second level. Third zero, third level of prison. I can't remember what was supposed to happen after that if zero somehow hit a fourth time.

I wonder what the odds are on that version of Roulette?
link to original post



Then there was the Macau version

Your bet was imprisoned and only released when you saw 18 zeroes in a row.

Sorry, Alan, I couldn't resist. Nothing personal.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
AlanMendelson
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September 28th, 2022 at 11:20:40 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: TigerWu

There are, or at least used to be, some casinos in Europe that had triple-levels of prison. If a zero hit on an Even money bet, you went to the first level of prison. If a zero hit a second time, you went to the second level. Third zero, third level of prison. I can't remember what was supposed to happen after that if zero somehow hit a fourth time.

I wonder what the odds are on that version of Roulette?
link to original post



Then there was the Macau version

Your bet was imprisoned and only released when you saw 18 zeroes in a row.

Sorry, Alan, I couldn't resist. Nothing personal.
link to original post



https://funjokesforkids.com/the-lowest-form-of-humor-puns-sarcasm-or-shock-ranked/
darkoz
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September 29th, 2022 at 4:58:38 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

Quote: TigerWu

There are, or at least used to be, some casinos in Europe that had triple-levels of prison. If a zero hit on an Even money bet, you went to the first level of prison. If a zero hit a second time, you went to the second level. Third zero, third level of prison. I can't remember what was supposed to happen after that if zero somehow hit a fourth time.

I wonder what the odds are on that version of Roulette?
link to original post



Then there was the Macau version

Your bet was imprisoned and only released when you saw 18 zeroes in a row.

Sorry, Alan, I couldn't resist. Nothing personal.
link to original post



https://funjokesforkids.com/the-lowest-form-of-humor-puns-sarcasm-or-shock-ranked/
link to original post



Touche!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
TigerWu
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September 29th, 2022 at 9:16:39 AM permalink
Quote: JackSpade

Somehow I doubt he's properly accounting for his losses when arriving at that figure. Anyone who plays 000 has already demonstrated that they aren't keen on math.



Wouldn't be hard at all to win $20,000 on a 000 wheel depending on the size of your bets. Looks like he's making some pretty big ones.
JackSpade
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September 29th, 2022 at 12:18:16 PM permalink
I've never had a consistent enough string of good luck to be up $20,000 on roulette. Nor have I been willing to risk losing enough to have a really good chance at winning $20,000.

A single $570 bet on a roulette number straight-up has a 2.6% chance of winning the player approximately $20,000. Of course, a player betting on a single number could easily wipe out a $20,000 bankroll before getting a win or get multiple $20,000 wins before suffering a $20,000 drawdown.

Whereas a player betting on 18 numbers at a time at $570 per spin would see fewer $20,000 swings. On average, he would accumulate $20,000 in losses over the course of 456 bets ($260,000) on 000 roulette. I don't know exactly what the probability of experiencing a $20,000 upswing would be.
AlanMendelson
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September 29th, 2022 at 3:26:08 PM permalink
What are the betting limits on a number straight up?
darkoz
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September 29th, 2022 at 3:42:50 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

What are the betting limits on a number straight up?
link to original post



In Atlantic City it's usually $200.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
JackSpade
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September 29th, 2022 at 3:43:59 PM permalink
I imagine most large casinos with high limit gaming would accommodate $1,000 or more straight-up regardless of posted table limits - unless they had some reason to be suspicious of the player.

MGM Grand's -0- wheel has a $100 minimum and a max bet that can be effortlessly negotiated up to $60,000 on black:

unJon
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September 29th, 2022 at 3:44:27 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: AlanMendelson

What are the betting limits on a number straight up?
link to original post



In Atlantic City it's usually $200.
link to original post



You can exceed a straight up number limit by making a complete bet.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
JackSpade
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September 29th, 2022 at 4:08:53 PM permalink
One rationale for enforcing table limits is that casinos want to limit the staying power of martingale and other progressive system players who start off with minimum bets. Of course, in the long run the casino will still win against players who raise their bets progressively. But a player who is allowed to range from $100-$60,000 could survive up to 10 losses in a row using martingale - which means he could be taking up space at the table all night long provided he dodges a losing streak of 11.

And in blackjack and other games susceptible to advantage play, casinos don't want players to be able to go from minimum bets to inordinately large bets when they have an advantage.
JackSpade
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September 29th, 2022 at 4:16:23 PM permalink
Actually, if your goal is staying power with martingale then you don't start doubling until after two losses in a row. Thereafter, doubled bets recoup all previous losses but don't generate any profit. So one could survive 11 losses in a row starting at $100 and ending at $51,200.
Ace2
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September 29th, 2022 at 4:47:36 PM permalink
Regarding the $20k winner, here are a few calculations for a 000 wheel:

Play a straight up number for $100 per spin, you have about a 1 in 8000 chance up being up $20,000 or more after 100 spins

Play an even money number for $1000 per spin, you have about a 1 in 400 chance up being up $20,000 or more after 100 spins
It’s all about making that GTA
JackSpade
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AxelWolf
October 11th, 2022 at 12:31:58 PM permalink
I won several thousand yesterday at NYNY and MGM Grand - mostly on video poker. I finally hit a royal flush after being in a drought for several months!

I then played -0- roulette briefly. After winning my first 4 spins in a row, I decided to not risk spoiling my run of good luck and colored up. It was time to savor the moment and enjoy a great calamari and steak skewers at wolfgang puck's - paid for by the casino.

I intended to top off my winning day with a good run on Ultimate Texas Holdem. After finding the table was full, I played some three card poker for a small profit. Still no seat available at UTH, so I lapsed and played some slots just intending to give back some money for points. Ended up winning a couple hundred on Top Dollar. Finally got a seat for UTH, didn't run well the first few hands but finished strong enough to book yet another win before calling it a night.

Admittedly, my wins had little to do with progressions or advantage plays. I just went on an amazing heater that carried over from game to game. My bankroll is now big enough to attempt some higher stakes plays in future sessions.
Dieter
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October 11th, 2022 at 2:03:40 PM permalink
Quote: JackSpade


Admittedly, my wins had little to do with progressions or advantage plays. I just went on an amazing heater that carried over from game to game.
link to original post



Warmest congratulations on your successful run.
May the cards fall in your favor.
OnceDear
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October 11th, 2022 at 3:52:43 PM permalink
Nice hat $:o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
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October 11th, 2022 at 4:21:19 PM permalink
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
JackSpade
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October 12th, 2022 at 12:29:45 AM permalink
Thanks OnceDear, Dieter!

I had another winning day. Didn't hit any big jackpots, just grinded some gains at the poker room, video poker, and UTH.

I saw some advantage play opportunities due to dealer errors. One paid the blind bonus to a full house that got beat by the dealer's better full house. Another paid the ante bets on some hands even though she didn't qualify. There seems to be an effective code among players to never say anything when they notice a dealer overpaying somebody.
Last edited by: JackSpade on Oct 12, 2022
OnceDear
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October 12th, 2022 at 2:25:46 AM permalink
Quote: JackSpade

There seems to be an effective code among players to never say anything when they notice a dealer overpaying somebody.
link to original post


That is sort of the unwritten rule at table games: Correct dealer errors on your own hand if they are disadvantaging you and ignore those where they over pay you. For other players' hands, keep schtum. Your moral compass may vary.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
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