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AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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March 27th, 2021 at 6:13:08 PM permalink
I am not a Baccarat player. My only experience was playing one free Baccarat tournament.

I am not a blackjack player. I don't enjoy the game.

Several times I've read that card counting cannot be used in Baccarat, while we all know that card counting is a useful tool in blackjack.

I've never seen an explanation about why card counting can't be applied to Baccarat. Would someone please tell me why card counting won't work? Please use simple language; I'm math challenged.

Thank you.
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 27th, 2021 at 7:16:50 PM permalink
There is little effect of removal in baccarat. As I recall, the small cards help the Banker, but it's not a significant effect.

Card counting can cut down the house edge by about 30%, but if you're willing to do the work, why not just play blackjack basic strategy and enjoy an even better bet?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 27th, 2021 at 7:34:53 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

There is little effect of removal in baccarat. As I recall, the small cards help the Banker, but it's not a significant effect.

Card counting can cut down the house edge by about 30%, but if you're willing to do the work, why not just play blackjack basic strategy and enjoy an even better bet?



This is the first time I ever saw info that card counting in Baccarat can actually cut the house edge.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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March 27th, 2021 at 8:20:50 PM permalink
If you play a shoe on the Wiz's site, there's some stats page where you can see the House Edge change if you want to look it up every few hands. Sometimes the edge is horrible, one way or another. You could find betting Ties would be better than betting Banker.
Wizard
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Wizard
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March 27th, 2021 at 8:28:43 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

This is the first time I ever saw info that card counting in Baccarat can actually cut the house edge.



Here is more.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
darkoz
darkoz
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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March 27th, 2021 at 11:36:04 PM permalink
What about card counting the tie bet?

Wouldn't a large amount of ten/picture cards make ties more likely?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
UP84
UP84
Joined: May 22, 2012
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March 28th, 2021 at 4:24:47 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

What about card counting the tie bet?

Wouldn't a large amount of ten/picture cards make ties more likely?


Yes, it's possible to card count the tie bet, but similar to counting the Player/Banker bet, a +EV count situation occurs only rarely. For a tie bet the bettor must overcome a 14% house edge.
Last edited by: UP84 on Mar 28, 2021
teliot
teliot
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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March 28th, 2021 at 8:39:07 AM permalink
Of course, my conclusions are exactly the same as Mike's.

For those who like to read, here are my articles on baccarat card counting:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-in-baccarat/

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/baccarat-card-counting-update-1/

Here is my article on card counting the baccarat Tie bet (about 10x as valuable as Banker/Player, but still mostly worthless):

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/beating-the-baccarat-tie-bet

In the posted links, I give card counting systems based on EOR's, along with win rates and other data.

I also have articles on computer perfect play that gives an upper limit on the win-rate for any counting system on Banker, Player or Tie. It's pitiful at best. But I've already posted too many links here.

For those who don't like to read, here is my video on card counting in baccarat:

Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
teliot
teliot
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Thanks for this post from:
MichaelBluejay
March 28th, 2021 at 8:49:27 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

This is the first time I ever saw info that card counting in Baccarat can actually cut the house edge.

This information has been available since the time of Thorp. You just had to look for it.
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com
teliot
teliot
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gordonm888
March 28th, 2021 at 9:17:41 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

What about card counting the tie bet?

Wouldn't a large amount of ten/picture cards make ties more likely?

Endplaying a slug of 0-valued cards was discussed in John May's book, "Baccarat for the Clueless."

Here is what Grosjean said about May's 2000 work in CAA:

"For you to continue to suggest that there is any money to be made counting the Tie bet does a disservice to the community. Your position is based on your stubbornness and refusal to admit that your thesis topic (Tie counting) is in fact a dead-end, but you never had the cold hard numbers to know that in the past. Now those numbers are available, but you don't want to read them I am quite confident in saying that I have written the last (competent) word on counting the Tie bet in baccarat, and it undermines all of your drivel over the last decade."

I consider John May's book to be the best book available to the general public on baccarat, which really is more of an indictment of every other book written on the topic.

I discuss May's work in this article:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/baccarat-tie-bet-flimflam
Poetry website: www.totallydisconnected.com

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