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AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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March 27th, 2021 at 6:13:08 PM permalink
I am not a Baccarat player. My only experience was playing one free Baccarat tournament.

I am not a blackjack player. I don't enjoy the game.

Several times I've read that card counting cannot be used in Baccarat, while we all know that card counting is a useful tool in blackjack.

I've never seen an explanation about why card counting can't be applied to Baccarat. Would someone please tell me why card counting won't work? Please use simple language; I'm math challenged.

Thank you.
Wizard
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March 27th, 2021 at 7:16:50 PM permalink
There is little effect of removal in baccarat. As I recall, the small cards help the Banker, but it's not a significant effect.

Card counting can cut down the house edge by about 30%, but if you're willing to do the work, why not just play blackjack basic strategy and enjoy an even better bet?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
AlanMendelson
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March 27th, 2021 at 7:34:53 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

There is little effect of removal in baccarat. As I recall, the small cards help the Banker, but it's not a significant effect.

Card counting can cut down the house edge by about 30%, but if you're willing to do the work, why not just play blackjack basic strategy and enjoy an even better bet?



This is the first time I ever saw info that card counting in Baccarat can actually cut the house edge.
ChumpChange
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March 27th, 2021 at 8:20:50 PM permalink
If you play a shoe on the Wiz's site, there's some stats page where you can see the House Edge change if you want to look it up every few hands. Sometimes the edge is horrible, one way or another. You could find betting Ties would be better than betting Banker.
Wizard
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March 27th, 2021 at 8:28:43 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

This is the first time I ever saw info that card counting in Baccarat can actually cut the house edge.



Here is more.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
darkoz
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March 27th, 2021 at 11:36:04 PM permalink
What about card counting the tie bet?

Wouldn't a large amount of ten/picture cards make ties more likely?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
UP84
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March 28th, 2021 at 4:24:47 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

What about card counting the tie bet?

Wouldn't a large amount of ten/picture cards make ties more likely?


Yes, it's possible to card count the tie bet, but similar to counting the Player/Banker bet, a +EV count situation occurs only rarely. For a tie bet the bettor must overcome a 14% house edge.
Last edited by: UP84 on Mar 28, 2021
teliot
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March 28th, 2021 at 8:39:07 AM permalink
Of course, my conclusions are exactly the same as Mike's.

For those who like to read, here are my articles on baccarat card counting:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/card-counting-in-baccarat/

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/baccarat-card-counting-update-1/

Here is my article on card counting the baccarat Tie bet (about 10x as valuable as Banker/Player, but still mostly worthless):

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/beating-the-baccarat-tie-bet

In the posted links, I give card counting systems based on EOR's, along with win rates and other data.

I also have articles on computer perfect play that gives an upper limit on the win-rate for any counting system on Banker, Player or Tie. It's pitiful at best. But I've already posted too many links here.

For those who don't like to read, here is my video on card counting in baccarat:

Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
teliot
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March 28th, 2021 at 8:49:27 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

This is the first time I ever saw info that card counting in Baccarat can actually cut the house edge.

This information has been available since the time of Thorp. You just had to look for it.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
teliot
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March 28th, 2021 at 9:17:41 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

What about card counting the tie bet?

Wouldn't a large amount of ten/picture cards make ties more likely?

Endplaying a slug of 0-valued cards was discussed in John May's book, "Baccarat for the Clueless."

Here is what Grosjean said about May's 2000 work in CAA:

"For you to continue to suggest that there is any money to be made counting the Tie bet does a disservice to the community. Your position is based on your stubbornness and refusal to admit that your thesis topic (Tie counting) is in fact a dead-end, but you never had the cold hard numbers to know that in the past. Now those numbers are available, but you don't want to read them I am quite confident in saying that I have written the last (competent) word on counting the Tie bet in baccarat, and it undermines all of your drivel over the last decade."

I consider John May's book to be the best book available to the general public on baccarat, which really is more of an indictment of every other book written on the topic.

I discuss May's work in this article:

https://www.888casino.com/blog/baccarat-tips/baccarat-tie-bet-flimflam
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
charliepatrick
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teliot
March 28th, 2021 at 10:27:39 AM permalink
One of the best measures is one that Eliot created. It is based on sitting watching hands and making $100 bets whenever there is an advantage. The measure states how much, on average, you would make per 100 hands watched. (In the articles here there is reference to $1000, but personally I prefer $100.)

Some time ago I used this measure for a new game comparing its countability index to Blackjack. Varying from 83% penetration through to CSMs, I was getting figures for BJ such as $27 for 83% penetration to $1.75 for CSMs.

If I've read Eliot's pages correctly, the possible profits for Baccarat are Cents rather than Dollars, so you could earn one free coffee per day! This is typically why casinos have little concern allowing people to write down everything and make the some of the largest bets in the casino.


As an aside it is something that new game designers should consider as sometimes a good game/side-bet does need protection from counting. I think being able to quantify this against Blackjack, which Casinos understand the risk, is a valuable tool.
kewlj
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March 28th, 2021 at 10:28:05 AM permalink
Ok, I hate to do this Alan, but is this thread and question related to or inspired by the long running Mdawg situation?

I only ask because the very first time I was able to interact with Mdawg on a forum, which was probably a year or more into his "adventures", I asked if he was counting or doing anything known or even not very well known to gain an advantage at baccarat and he emphatically replied NO. I have since asked several more times with the same response.

So if this is in reference to Mdawg, lets rule that out. If it is independent of that discussion, please accept my apologies for this brief interruption.
ChumpChange
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March 28th, 2021 at 12:39:05 PM permalink
Just bet Player when the count is -4 or further negative, bet Banker if it's above -4. Seems easy-peasy until you forget the count.
coachbelly
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March 28th, 2021 at 12:51:06 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

if this is in reference to Mdawg, lets rule that out.



This sounds like you are believing only what you want to believe.
ssho88
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March 28th, 2021 at 4:17:06 PM permalink
8 DECK, PLAY UNTIL LAST 14 CARDS, 100,000 shoe simulation.


A) BANKER BET

1)Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 1.35%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.29
5) Total Winning/shoe = $24.14
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 63




B) PLAYER BET

1)Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 1.87%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.24
5) Total Winning/shoe = $34.25
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 60



* Average EV = Total winning per shoe /Total Betting amount per shoe



It is surprising that PLAYER BET have higher profits then BANKER bet.

So worth to play ?
unJon
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March 28th, 2021 at 4:26:30 PM permalink
Quote: ssho88

8 DECK, PLAY UNTIL LAST 14 CARDS, 100,000 shoe simulation.


A) BANKER BET

1)Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 1.35%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.29
5) Total Winning/shoe = $24.14
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 63




B) PLAYER BET

1)Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 1.87%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.24
5) Total Winning/shoe = $34.25
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 60



* Average EV = Total winning per shoe /Total Betting amount per shoe



It is surprising that PLAYER BET have higher profits then BANKER bet.

So worth to play ?



Would you mind adding tie between to simulation?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
darkoz
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AxelWolf
March 28th, 2021 at 5:12:44 PM permalink
Quote: coachbelly

This sounds like you are believing only what you want to believe.



My vote for most ironic comment of the year
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
ssho88
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March 28th, 2021 at 5:28:39 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Would you mind adding tie between to simulation?



Actually I am simulating for TIE(1 pay 8) and TIE(1 pay 9)....

It take longer time to simulate with prefect strategy.
TomG
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March 28th, 2021 at 6:50:33 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Of course, my conclusions are exactly the same as Mike's.



There was a good wizardofodds article from years ago on counting side bets. Do you have a link to that one?

I talked to someone a few weeks ago who has been doing well at that.
ssho88
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unJon
March 28th, 2021 at 11:06:48 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Would you mind adding tie between to simulation?



C) TIE BET(1 PAY 8)

1) Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 9.58%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.26
5) Total Winning/shoe = $178.51
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 68




D) TIE BET(1 PAY 9)

1) Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 7.63%
4) Rounds/shoe = 2.58
5) Total Winning/shoe = $794.64
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 36

If you bet on 20 tables(online games) at the same time with the help of computer, your total winning/shoe = 20 * (24.14 + 34.25 + 178.51 ) = $4738, So worth to play ?
Last edited by: ssho88 on Mar 29, 2021
SOOPOO
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March 29th, 2021 at 4:37:54 AM permalink
Quote: ssho88

C) TIE BET(1 PAY 8)

1) Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 9.58%
4) Rounds/shoe = 0.26
5) Total Winning/shoe = $178.51
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 68




D) TIE BET(1 PAY 9)

1) Strategy : Computer Perfect play
2) Bet size : Adjust according to current EV & Var, KELLY RATIO = 1, Fixed Bankroll = $1,000,000.
3) Average EV* = 7.63%
4) Rounds/shoe = 2.58
5) Total Winning/shoe = $794.64
6) The earliest round(with +ve EV) occurs in round no 36

If you bet on 20 tables(online games) at the same time with the help of computer, your total winning/shoe = 20 * (24.14 + 34.25 + 178.51 ) = $4738, So worth to play ?



I guess if you are ALLOWED to wait towards the end of a shoe, making no bets for the majority of the shoe, then bet what seems like 4 or 5 figure (10k +) on tie, and the online casino will actually pay you, it can be done! I do not believe that there would be much longevity doing this.....
ssho88
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March 29th, 2021 at 7:09:57 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I guess if you are ALLOWED to wait towards the end of a shoe, making no bets for the majority of the shoe, then bet what seems like 4 or 5 figure (10k +) on tie, and the online casino will actually pay you, it can be done! I do not believe that there would be much longevity doing this.....



Game longevity is my not my concern, I am just calculating the winning amount/shoe.
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