Deucekies
• Posts: 1457
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
March 21st, 2021 at 1:25:45 PM permalink
Hi all.

Has anyone ever analyzed the probabilities of the Monster Match progressive on Player's Edge 21?

48-card Spanish Decks
5 decks
Player's first two cards and Dealer's first two cards combine to make any of these:

4 of a Kind Suited - 100%
4 of a Kind Same Color - 10%
4 of a Kind - \$200
3 of a Kind Same Color - \$20
3 of a Kind - \$10
Suited Pair - \$3

Not sure why I get so lost when trying to deal with combinations. I figure the total number of four-card combinations from a 5-deck shoe is 240C4, or 134,810,340. Four of a Kind Suited seems like it would be 5C4 * 48? Am I on the right track?
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
CrystalMath
• Posts: 1911
Joined: May 10, 2011
March 21st, 2021 at 3:54:34 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Not sure why I get so lost when trying to deal with combinations. I figure the total number of four-card combinations from a 5-deck shoe is 240C4, or 134,810,340. Four of a Kind Suited seems like it would be 5C4 * 48? Am I on the right track?

Seems right to me.
I heart Crystal Math.
gordonm888
• Posts: 5200
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
March 21st, 2021 at 8:55:09 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Hi all.

Has anyone ever analyzed the probabilities of the Monster Match progressive on Player's Edge 21?

48-card Spanish Decks
5 decks
Player's first two cards and Dealer's first two cards combine to make any of these:

4 of a Kind Suited - 100%
4 of a Kind Same Color - 10%
4 of a Kind - \$200
3 of a Kind Same Color - \$20
3 of a Kind - \$10
Suited Pair - \$3

Not sure why I get so lost when trying to deal with combinations. I figure the total number of four-card combinations from a 5-deck shoe is 240C4, or 134,810,340. Four of a Kind Suited seems like it would be 5C4 * 48? Am I on the right track?

A. 4 of a Kind Suited = c(5,4)*48
B. 4 of a Kind Same Color = c(10,4) *24 - A
C. 4 of a Kind = c(20,4) *12 - A - B
D. 3 of a Kind Same Color = c(10,3)*24 * 220
E. 3 of a Kind = c(20,3) *12 *220 - D
F. Suited Pair = c(5,2) * 48 *c(220,2)
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
Deucekies
• Posts: 1457
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
March 22nd, 2021 at 3:24:16 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

A. 4 of a Kind Suited = c(5,4)*48
B. 4 of a Kind Same Color = c(10,4) *24 - A
C. 4 of a Kind = c(20,4) *12 - A - B
D. 3 of a Kind Same Color = c(10,3)*24 * 220
E. 3 of a Kind = c(20,3) *12 *220 - D
F. Suited Pair = c(5,2) * 48 *c(220,2)

Brilliant, thank you! That's where I went wrong. I kept trying to use 48 instead of 24 or 12 where appropriate.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
SuperNatural
• Posts: 13
Joined: Dec 22, 2020
April 18th, 2021 at 8:12:56 AM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

A. 4 of a Kind Suited = c(5,4)*48
B. 4 of a Kind Same Color = c(10,4) *24 - A
C. 4 of a Kind = c(20,4) *12 - A - B
D. 3 of a Kind Same Color = c(10,3)*24 * 220
E. 3 of a Kind = c(20,3) *12 *220 - D
F. Suited Pair = c(5,2) * 48 *c(220,2)

How would you calculate the Other hands?

Thanks.