Poll

No votes (0%)
2 votes (18.18%)
1 vote (9.09%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (18.18%)
No votes (0%)
5 votes (45.45%)
6 votes (54.54%)

11 members have voted

Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1369
  • Posts: 22738
August 22nd, 2020 at 2:48:18 PM permalink
I just added a level 3 to my card counting baccarat page. It widens the adjustment on the running count by rank from -1 to +1 to -6 to +6. Bottom line is a reduction in house edge of only 0.01%. Not worth the bother, but I felt I had to see how much it would help.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
camz1969
camz1969
Joined: Dec 6, 2016
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 35
August 22nd, 2020 at 3:46:11 PM permalink
I saw this was already mentioned, but I have also been curious about the frequency of a shoe having enough 10 cards to have an edge with the tie bet (hitting 0-0). Unlike blackjack one good thing is itís not as awkward to skip a lot of hands. You could even stand behind and back count the whole time since casinos arenít really suspicious about bac being beaten. Youíre just Ďlooking for patterns.í I would think the problem is the speed of the game is so slow it would take forever to see a shoe rich enough for 0-0 ties to hit frequently enough to be worth the effort.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1369
  • Posts: 22738
August 22nd, 2020 at 5:11:05 PM permalink
Quote: camz1969

I saw this was already mentioned, but I have also been curious about the frequency of a shoe having enough 10 cards to have an edge with the tie bet (hitting 0-0). Unlike blackjack one good thing is itís not as awkward to skip a lot of hands. You could even stand behind and back count the whole time since casinos arenít really suspicious about bac being beaten. Youíre just Ďlooking for patterns.í I would think the problem is the speed of the game is so slow it would take forever to see a shoe rich enough for 0-0 ties to hit frequently enough to be worth the effort.



That is addressed in my baccarat appendix 2.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
MattUK
MattUK
Joined: Jul 25, 2017
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 137
August 22nd, 2020 at 8:03:03 PM permalink
Outstanding job, thank you!

Being an admirer of simplicity, I can't help but remind that 100 Bit Dice by 4ThePlayer (so-called Bitcoin Dice for regulated casinos) has 99% - for 50:50 paying 1.98x or under 49.50 paying 2.00x. That leaves only 0.05% above what's granted without thinking at all. Too little to think. :-)

May I also remind that two casinos in central London, Empire and Hippodrome, offer "Red 8" rule on Baccarat, where any Red 8 in Banker's hand pays 1:1. They still have it on at least one table. That's been mentioned back in 2012:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/7660-baccarat-variation-offered-in-the-uk/2/
Charlie calculated the overall RTP to be 99.19% through not yet authoritatively. Maybe it's a good time to add the "Red 8" rule to your appendix. That, of course, consumes all the effort in the standard game.

Still above "Red 8" is 4% commission in Isleta Resort & Casino in Albuquerque and online at 5Dimes Casino. The latter lowers the commission on Banker to 2.75% (4 pays 3.89) every Monday from 2pm to 8pm ET (6h/week) which is, essentially, a coin flip.
Last edited by: MattUK on Aug 23, 2020
FlaTrips
FlaTrips
Joined: Aug 22, 2020
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 2
August 23rd, 2020 at 7:00:55 AM permalink
That's where I tried to go.
Thanks
camz1969
camz1969
Joined: Dec 6, 2016
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 35
August 23rd, 2020 at 11:13:34 AM permalink
Hi Wiz. I read through it but isnít that whole page based on the one strategy? In the effect on edge chart youíre saying removal of 0s (10s right?) is good for the tie since itís positive. Am I reading that right? What I was referring to is counting down shoes until you find one with almost all 10s left where 0-0 tie has a high enough probability of hitting to overcome the edge. For instance in a super rare occurrence there might be a shoe with all 10s left where you would have a 100% edge. With a few non 10 cards I know you would still have an edge but Iím not sure what exact 10/non10 ratio would give you an edge or how frequently that ratio would happen.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 909
August 23rd, 2020 at 2:07:08 PM permalink
Hi camz1969,

you should find the links below helpful/interesting:
link , link2, link3
camz1969
camz1969
Joined: Dec 6, 2016
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 35
August 23rd, 2020 at 4:11:53 PM permalink
Thanks. Link3 hit on the all 10s left...once in every 370,370 shoes if cut card is at 14 cards and to correct what I posted earlier it is a 800% edge. That simulation was for ALL 10s though. I still wonder what 10/non10 ratio actually give you an edge. If ALL 10s is 800% edge what ratio would you need for just a 1% edge? Like if I assign +1 to ALL non 10 cards what count would give a positive expectation? This would be a different frequency (worse maybe?) than these other counts. Disclaimer: Iím not trying to go be a bac player, just curious and Wiz is looking for discussion.
UP84
UP84
Joined: May 22, 2012
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 138
August 23rd, 2020 at 5:00:35 PM permalink
Quote: camz1969

...That simulation was for ALL 10s though. I still wonder what 10/non10 ratio actually give you an edge. If ALL 10s is 800% edge what ratio would you need for just a 1% edge? Like if I assign +1 to ALL non 10 cards what count would give a positive expectation?

The problem with this type of ratio (10s/non-10s), is that at most values it's an incredibly inefficient measure of the probability of a tie. This is because some non-10 cards (A,8 & 9s) push the probability of a tie one way, while other non-10 cards push the probability of a tie the other way (the 6 and 7 pushing it very strongly the other way). For example, given the ultra rare ratio of 30 to 1, the probability of a tie is most likely enough to beat the house edge (I haven't done the math on this), but at lower and more common values, the ratio will be practically meaningless.
Last edited by: UP84 on Aug 23, 2020
camz1969
camz1969
Joined: Dec 6, 2016
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 35
August 23rd, 2020 at 10:49:57 PM permalink
Right so to clarify, the count Iím talking about is basically just chasing a 0-0 tie only. I mean the simple answer is you have an edge when the 10s ratio makes you hit a 0-0 better than once every 8 bets with 8:1 payout. Iím not sure of the frequency of that happening though. The Wizís count is factoring in the other cards for all ties and it appears with that count a ton of 10s in the shoe is a bad thing. Weíve determined from the one article to get the full 800% edge (with 100% win rate) from all 10s left takes 320,320 shoes on average, but how frequent would you see enough 10s to hit a 0-0 even 1/8 times in the long run (0% edge)? To keep it simple assume back counting until that point so youíre not offsetting -EV.

  • Jump to: