ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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June 29th, 2020 at 1:32:00 AM permalink
What are the odds of losing 10 one Dozens bets in a row? (Roulette)
I'm hoping I can win at least 70 times (or 700 times) before a bust.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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June 29th, 2020 at 2:02:59 AM permalink
If i understand the question correctly ( i don't look at roulette too often), then I think it is this:

For Double-zero: ~ 2/89 chance of losing 10 out of 10 "one dozens bets"
or
for Single-zero: ~ 2/101 chance ...
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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ChumpChange
June 29th, 2020 at 5:02:26 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

What are the odds of losing 10 one Dozens bets in a row? (Roulette)
I'm hoping I can win at least 70 times (or 700 times) before a bust.


(25/37)^10 = 1.32% 1.98%= 1 in 50 approx
or
(26/38)^10 = 2.25% = 1 in 45 approx
Last edited by: OnceDear on Jun 29, 2020
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
unJon
unJon
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OnceDear
June 29th, 2020 at 5:25:19 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

(25/37)^10 = 1.32% = 1 in 50 approx
or
(26/38)^10 = 2.25% = 1 in 45 approx



1.32% is closer to 1 in 75.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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June 29th, 2020 at 6:14:18 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

1.32% is closer to 1 in 75.

I stand corrected... But it was the 1.32 that was wrong. I'd initially taken 24/37.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
heatmap
heatmap
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June 29th, 2020 at 3:47:52 PM permalink
I donít math very well but is there a minimum and maximum variance percentage or something like that? That may be whatís expected over time? Or should I just stop talking lol
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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heatmap
June 29th, 2020 at 5:30:31 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

I donít math very well but is there a minimum and maximum variance percentage or something like that? That may be whatís expected over time? Or should I just stop talking lol

for discrete wagers like this, the maximum and minimums are 'Win all wagers' or 'lose all wagers' in the sequence.
More broadly the answer is 'no'
There are confidence limits that can be calculated. E.g. I can be x% confident that the max number of wagers that I will lose sequentially will be N.
For a large number of wagers that follow a 'Normal distribution' we can say things like 68% of outcomes will be within 1 standard deviation of the mean and 90% will be within 2 x standard deviations. Lot's of 'ifs' If it's a normal distribution... If you know the standard deviation...
But (near) 100% confidence needs absolute maximum extremes of variance. E.g. Toss a coin a million times and you can say with roughly 100% confidence that you will have between 0 and a million occurrences of 'heads'. In reality it would be closer to 1/2 a million heads most times and 1 million heads in a row would be somewhat unlikely :o)
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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July 2nd, 2020 at 6:21:11 AM permalink
Roulette software likes to make an example of me by losing 80 dozen bets, or 4 sessions of 20 bets of $400, or 4 sessions of $8,000, or $32,000, in one sit down.
heatmap
heatmap
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July 2nd, 2020 at 3:48:20 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Roulette software likes to make an example of me by losing 80 dozen bets, or 4 sessions of 20 bets of $400, or 4 sessions of $8,000, or $32,000, in one sit down.



I have recently finished an alpha version of my roulette program and basically I know that I am not cheating myself - at least not on purpose lol. The RNG as of this point uses a call to a PHP function that is absolutely seeded incorrectly because Iím pretty sure itís just the time as a seed. Anyways I have times where I swear it avoids bets because I know itís not dependent on any results but for some reason it still seems as if it does. But I will say that incorrectly seeded php rng function will eventually produce the results you want because the RNG seems to be so uniformly distributed that if you leave your bets on numbers that havenít come up yet they are guaranteed to hit and repeatedly too.

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