June 29th, 2020 at 1:32:00 AM
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What are the odds of losing 10 one Dozens bets in a row? (Roulette)

I'm hoping I can win at least 70 times (or 700 times) before a bust.

I'm hoping I can win at least 70 times (or 700 times) before a bust.

June 29th, 2020 at 2:02:59 AM
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If i understand the question correctly ( i don't look at roulette too often), then I think it is this:

For Double-zero: ~ 2/89 chance of losing 10 out of 10 "one dozens bets"

or

for Single-zero: ~ 2/101 chance ...

For Double-zero: ~ 2/89 chance of losing 10 out of 10 "one dozens bets"

or

for Single-zero: ~ 2/101 chance ...

June 29th, 2020 at 5:02:26 AM
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Quote:ChumpChangeWhat are the odds of losing 10 one Dozens bets in a row? (Roulette)

I'm hoping I can win at least 70 times (or 700 times) before a bust.

(25/37)^10 = 1.32% 1.98%= 1 in 50 approx

or

(26/38)^10 = 2.25% = 1 in 45 approx

Last edited by: OnceDear on Jun 29, 2020

Take care out there.
Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..

June 29th, 2020 at 5:25:19 AM
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Quote:OnceDear(25/37)^10 = 1.32% = 1 in 50 approx

or

(26/38)^10 = 2.25% = 1 in 45 approx

1.32% is closer to 1 in 75.

The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.

June 29th, 2020 at 6:14:18 AM
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I stand corrected... But it was the 1.32 that was wrong. I'd initially taken 24/37.Quote:unJon1.32% is closer to 1 in 75.

Take care out there.
Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..

June 29th, 2020 at 3:47:52 PM
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I don’t math very well but is there a minimum and maximum variance percentage or something like that? That may be what’s expected over time? Or should I just stop talking lol

June 29th, 2020 at 5:30:31 PM
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for discrete wagers like this, the maximum and minimums are 'Win all wagers' or 'lose all wagers' in the sequence.Quote:heatmapI don’t math very well but is there a minimum and maximum variance percentage or something like that? That may be what’s expected over time? Or should I just stop talking lol

More broadly the answer is 'no'

There are confidence limits that can be calculated. E.g. I can be x% confident that the max number of wagers that I will lose sequentially will be N.

For a large number of wagers that follow a 'Normal distribution' we can say things like 68% of outcomes will be within 1 standard deviation of the mean and 90% will be within 2 x standard deviations. Lot's of 'ifs' If it's a normal distribution... If you know the standard deviation...

But (near) 100% confidence needs absolute maximum extremes of variance. E.g. Toss a coin a million times and you can say with roughly 100% confidence that you will have between 0 and a million occurrences of 'heads'. In reality it would be closer to 1/2 a million heads most times and 1 million heads in a row would be somewhat unlikely :o)

Take care out there.
Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..

July 2nd, 2020 at 6:21:11 AM
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Roulette software likes to make an example of me by losing 80 dozen bets, or 4 sessions of 20 bets of $400, or 4 sessions of $8,000, or $32,000, in one sit down.

July 2nd, 2020 at 3:48:20 PM
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Quote:ChumpChangeRoulette software likes to make an example of me by losing 80 dozen bets, or 4 sessions of 20 bets of $400, or 4 sessions of $8,000, or $32,000, in one sit down.

I have recently finished an alpha version of my roulette program and basically I know that I am not cheating myself - at least not on purpose lol. The RNG as of this point uses a call to a PHP function that is absolutely seeded incorrectly because I’m pretty sure it’s just the time as a seed. Anyways I have times where I swear it avoids bets because I know it’s not dependent on any results but for some reason it still seems as if it does. But I will say that incorrectly seeded php rng function will eventually produce the results you want because the RNG seems to be so uniformly distributed that if you leave your bets on numbers that haven’t come up yet they are guaranteed to hit and repeatedly too.