tgarrettcpa
tgarrettcpa
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November 17th, 2010 at 10:59:31 AM permalink
I have a friend who plays on the dark side and will sometimes move his don't pass bet to a place bet after a point is established. I.E., $5 on don't pass, 6 is established as point, he will move the $5 don't pass to the pass line and up the bet to $12 or $24, thereby placing the 6. I am wondering if anyone here does this, and/or how this is used in their overall strategy.

Thanks
DeMango
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November 17th, 2010 at 11:03:09 AM permalink
So he is taking a bet where he has a better than 9% advantage to one that is 1.52% against him. BRILLIANT!!!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Paigowdan
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November 17th, 2010 at 11:05:20 AM permalink
Yes...
Sometimes a dark side bettor will move a don't-pass point of six or eight to a place bet, because they are so much easier to make than a four or ten.
Also, a Dark side don't come bettor may say "no action" if a six or eight is rolled.

It's a strategy move that can be used whenever an "easy to make" number becomes the point that the dark side bettor is going against.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
DJTeddyBear
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November 17th, 2010 at 11:05:26 AM permalink
The very fact that a casino LETS you take down, or move, a Don't Pass bet, should tell you (or him) something...
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
tgarrettcpa
tgarrettcpa
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November 17th, 2010 at 11:16:49 AM permalink
Enlighten me
ElectricDreams
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November 17th, 2010 at 11:16:53 AM permalink
As I understand it, after the come out roll, the dice odds are in the don't bettor's favor. Even on the six or eight. You made it past the come out roll, why the heck would you take down the bet?! There is absolutely no reason to do so!
SanchoPanza
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November 17th, 2010 at 11:35:28 AM permalink
Quote: ElectricDreams

why the heck would you take down the bet?! There is absolutely no reason to do so!


Heck, I'll gladly reimburse you and take it over.
tgarrettcpa
tgarrettcpa
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November 17th, 2010 at 11:48:17 AM permalink
Thanks for the input. I figured that this was a sucker bet, but did not know the exact odds. To anybody on the dark side, I am curious to know what betting systems you use?
mkl654321
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November 17th, 2010 at 11:53:21 AM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

Yes...
Sometimes a dark side bettor will move a don't-pass point of six or eight to a place bet, because they are so much easier to make than a four or ten.
Also, a Dark side don't come bettor may say "no action" if a six or eight is rolled.

It's a strategy move that can be used whenever an "easy to make" number becomes the point that the dark side bettor is going against.



All I can say is, if my "point" was 7 (as it is for a Don't bettor who survives the comeout), and I took my bet DOWN, I should be led gently from the table and be given a glass of warm milk and some cookies.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Yoyomama
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November 17th, 2010 at 11:55:36 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

So he is taking a bet where he has a better than 9% advantage to one that is 1.52% against him. BRILLIANT!!!



This is one part of the game I enjoy. I am a pass line/full odds, come bet/full odds guy. Nothing else. While that gets kind of boring, I love watching some of the crazy bets people make. And it's even more fun when they hit! It's fun to watch!
ElectricDreams
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November 17th, 2010 at 12:20:17 PM permalink
Quote: Yoyomama

This is one part of the game I enjoy. I am a pass line/full odds, come bet/full odds guy. Nothing else. While that gets kind of boring, I love watching some of the crazy bets people make. And it's even more fun when they hit! It's fun to watch!



Yeah, me too. I was playing craps at the new River City Casino in St. Louis a few weeks ago, and this guy game up, bought in for $200, and proceeded to make the most complicated series of bets I'd ever seen a person make at one time. He put up horn bets, place bets, pass line bets, along with using terms I'd never heard before for various prop bets in the middle.

It was crazy. He stuck around for a while, purely by the fact all the hedging he was doing lengthened his stay, but man, I don't know why he felt the need to do all that.
boymimbo
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November 17th, 2010 at 12:25:07 PM permalink
After the don't pass is established, the odds of a win on a point of 6 and 8 is 6/11 - 5 / 11 = 1/11 = 9.09 percent, player advantage. To put in on the six and eight gives a house advantage of (7/6)x5/11 - 6/11 = 1.52 percent, a swing of 10.61 percent.

On a $10 table, the 6 and 8 are established as points on 10 of every 36 come out rolls, so beautiful 1.364 house advantage turns into a 1.364 + 10/36 x .1061 = 4.31 percent HA. He's better off just riding the 5 and 9. Yuk.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Yoyomama
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November 17th, 2010 at 12:30:15 PM permalink
Quote: ElectricDreams

Yeah, me too. I was playing craps at the new River City Casino in St. Louis a few weeks ago, and this guy game up, bought in for $200, and proceeded to make the most complicated series of bets I'd ever seen a person make at one time. He put up horn bets, place bets, pass line bets, along with using terms I'd never heard before for various prop bets in the middle.

It was crazy. He stuck around for a while, purely by the fact all the hedging he was doing lengthened his stay, but man, I don't know why he felt the need to do all that.



Then there's the superstitions (probably a better term). This guy has $50 on the hard 8 and it hits. He says "let it ride" because hard 8's repeat. Well this time it didn't.
FleaStiff
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November 17th, 2010 at 12:44:20 PM permalink
Quote: ElectricDreams

after the come out roll, the dice odds are in the don't bettor's favor. Even on the six or eight. You made it past the come out roll, why the heck would you take down the bet?!

Agreed. Its simply that often dealers encourage it. Many players think that a point of Six or Eight is "bad" for a Wrong Bettor. Well, as a Wrong Bettor I might prefer the point to be the harder to make 4 or 10, but once the Wrong Bettor has survived that initial ComeOut Roll... he has the advantage no matter what the point is. The Wrong Bettor thinks fate has somehow cheated him by giving him a bet against an easy point. Well, the only persons cheating him are himself and the dealer who suggests it.
SanchoPanza
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November 17th, 2010 at 2:58:20 PM permalink
Quote: boymimbo

On a $10 table, the 6 and 8 are established as points on 10 of every 36 come out rolls


Does that outcome change when the denomination changes?
7outlineaway
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November 17th, 2010 at 4:23:27 PM permalink
Quote: tgarrettcpa

To anybody on the dark side, I am curious to know what betting systems you use?



I only play the Don't.

I typically make a series of don't pass and don't come bets (laying 10-20x odds where available) until I'm behind on three or four different point numbers. Then I ride them out. I usually stop putting bets down after I lose two or three of them. If all the numbers hit I wait for the dice to pass to the next shooter. My bankroll per session is about enough to cover me for 10 straight losing bets at buy-in, which has about a 1 in 10,000 chance of happening.

I used to place the six and/or eight after the come-out; don't do that anymore. I used to hedge the come-out with hardway bets; don't do that anymore either. The table's either going to go my way or it's not, hedges be damned.
ahiromu
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November 17th, 2010 at 6:06:16 PM permalink
Quote: 7outlineaway

I used to hedge the come-out with hardway bets; don't do that anymore either. The table's either going to go my way or it's not, hedges be damned.



(I play the right way) - Sometimes I'll throw down a nickel on craps during a come-out... but I always feel dirty inside afterward.
Its - Possessive; It's - "It is" / "It has"; There - Location; Their - Possessive; They're - "They are"
Martin
Martin
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November 20th, 2010 at 9:53:43 AM permalink
Nothing disturbs me more than a don't pass player who takes his bet down after the come-out. Don't lay odds - OK but taking the bet down after you went against the seven? That's just wrong - if you see someone doing that buy their bet from them for even money. I saw a dealer once tell a player that picking it up was "a correct bet."

Here is a better bet - $25 on the don't pass, a 6 or 8 comes, put a $24 place bet on the 6 or the 8. If a 7 comes you win $1 if the point comes you win $3 - notice that you don't lose anything.

It's a dumb bet but for the scared don't players it is a good hedge and it is better than picking it up or making a place only bet.
goatcabin
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November 20th, 2010 at 10:22:18 AM permalink
Quote: 7outlineaway

I only play the Don't.

I typically make a series of don't pass and don't come bets (laying 10-20x odds where available) until I'm behind on three or four different point numbers. Then I ride them out. I usually stop putting bets down after I lose two or three of them. If all the numbers hit I wait for the dice to pass to the next shooter. My bankroll per session is about enough to cover me for 10 straight losing bets at buy-in, which has about a 1 in 10,000 chance of happening.



Actually, counting the comeout decisions, your chances of losing ten straight are about one in 890. If you are only counting point losses, about one in 8205. One of the attractive things about darkside betting is that when you lose the comeout, it's only the flat bet you lose, and once a point is established and you have laid your odds, you are favored to win. The biggest danger in darkside betting is to lose a few points early, since you're laying the long end.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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November 20th, 2010 at 10:36:34 AM permalink
Quote: Martin

Here is a better bet - $25 on the don't pass, a 6 or 8 comes, put a $24 place bet on the 6 or the 8. If a 7 comes you win $1 if the point comes you win $3 - notice that you don't lose anything.

It's a dumb bet but for the scared don't players it is a good hedge and it is better than picking it up or making a place only bet.



If the player is "scared", why bet $25 in the first place? Hedging reduces volatility, but also adds expected loss. Betting minimum on the line lowers volatility AND reduces expected loss.

By making that place bet, you turn an ev of +$2.27 into +$1.91, so you're giving away almost 16% of your positive ev.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
goatcabin
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November 20th, 2010 at 10:41:27 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

So he is taking a bet where he has a better than 9% advantage to one that is 1.52% against him. BRILLIANT!!!



Or, to put it in money terms, turning an ev of +$.455 into -$.18 or -$.36.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
Martin
Martin
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November 20th, 2010 at 12:25:19 PM permalink
Absolutely, that's why I called it a "dumb bet." It is a better bet than picking it up. But I see so many people pick up their don't bet when a 6 or 8 comes or declare "no action" if they have it on the DC that this is a way to hedge it and not lose anything for lack of trying.

I once had a guy say I was very "brave" because I laid odds against the 6. That's the problem with some (maybe a lot) of players - they don't have a clue regarding where the risk is.
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