Found a flashing 3cp dealer.
Thing is, not being an AP I didn’t know how to take advantage. The easy plays were straight up: I saw the Kc, and folded Q96. I tried a couple plays with garbage, pretending that I was stupid so as to cover my tracks; once I won when the dealer didn’t qualify, once I lost when he paired the 3d that I saw (bad luck).
Since then I have read the information available, and have a better understanding of the tilt available. But how can you cover playing garbage hands that would normally fold?
I read Jacobson’s account of how it can be a grind, and how you can still lose the bank. The other night I had $100 at a $10 table, nowhere near enough. I was killing time while Mrs Mosca played slots. I got up to $155, then down to $50 and cashed out. Played about 2 hours on that $100, though, and had fun learning how to watch the cards get dealt. I felt like Superman: “7d. Kc. Kh. 3c. Jd. 5s.” Every hand. Plus one card from each of four or five other hands around the table.
No guarantees, but a new fun thing to try.
Quote: mcallister3200. FYI if you misread like one paint card an hour the edge is gone, easy to be delusional and think you have an edge that’s not really there on that game, many AP’s won’t even play that game. Or just play unknown paint strategy if making errors.
Please explain this to me like I'm a 3rd grader.
How does one hand at a 3% disadvantage offset 40 hands at a 3% advantage?
Quote: prozemaPlease explain this to me like I'm a 3rd grader.
How does one hand at a 3% disadvantage offset 40 hands at a 3% advantage?
Ok I admit I didn’t do the math myself that’s word of mouth from a more experienced professional so that may not be entirely accurate, and from years ago so sometimes memories change. I may be misremembering the quote it could have been referring to the most costly paint misread to make a point, or even remembering A/2/3 instead of paint.
You’re not playing at just a 3% disadvantage on that hand, however, is an accurate point. Consider you see J when it’s K and play 4/6/8, that’s going to be very costly and much higher than 3% disadvantage, why I would generally recommend just playing unknown paint for inexperienced players.
I totally agree that you have to be realistic on whether you saw the card or not. Also, reading a k as a j puts you at a huge disadvantage but that misread goes the other way too.
A jack has a red hat.
Kings and queens have yellow hats.
Quote: prozemaPlease explain this to me like I'm a 3rd grader.
How does one hand at a 3% disadvantage offset 40 hands at a 3% advantage?
I just read this. It changes the edge from 3.48% to 2.86%. You give up about 18% of your edge.
Thing is, if you are just playing it as an idle time passing, there’s not much point other than a fun thing to do. The swing is from 3% one way to 3% the other. Not that I wouldn’t take that, but I wouldn’t play it 4 hours a day at $25/hand, even if that meant a theoretical $35/hr. I make more than that going to work, with no risk.
What I'm saying is that 40 correct reads with a 3% advantage is a profit of 1.2 bets.
You could be at a 100% disadvantage on 1 bet and you are still ok assuming you are flat betting.
Quote: prozemaAlso, reading a k as a j puts you at a huge disadvantage but that misread goes the other way too.
Ok the other way around, not as costly if you read a J as a K you’re still going to be playing at a higher than 3% disadvantage on that hand you will be folding Q’s and K’s you’d hold otherwise in basic no? I think you’re correct on the exaggeration of effect of misread, and I can’t find where I got that from probably misremembering.
It is also possible to playing at greater than 100% disadvantage on a specific hand when the advantage/disadvantage is calculated based on ante, makes me think I am misremembering an example given of the most costly possible misread and blanket applying it.
.2 bets an hour * a 25 bet is $5 an hour.
$5 an hour * 300 hours is $1500.
Stick that in a mutual fund making 7% a year for 30 years and you have $11,000.
Quote: mcallister3200Ok the other way around, not as costly if you read a J as a K you’re still going to be playing at a higher than 3% disadvantage on that hand you will be folding Q’s and K’s you’d hold otherwise in basic no? I think you’re correct on the exaggeration of effect of misread, and I can’t find where I got that from probably misremembering. It is also possible to playing at greater than 100% disadvantage when the advantage/disadvantage is based on ante only, makes me think I am misremembering an example given of the most costly possible misread and blanket applying it.
I read the same thing somewhere. It's just not accurate.
How is it possible to play at over a 100% disadvantage?
Quote: mcallister3200Because you’re calculating advantage/disadvantage based on ante only rather than element of risk. Say for example you’re betting 1.6 units per hand when considering matching ante but calculating advantage/disadvantage on that initial unit, if you were to expect to lose it 1.2 of the 1.6 units in a specific that would be a -120% disadvantage the way carnival games are typically calculated but -75% if calculating on element of risk. If you were truly only ever flat betting eight no more additional units at risk then it is not possible.
I'm following you now. Thank you.
I still don't think a single misread in 41 hands puts you at a disadvantage. Ive had a few cocktails... I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time I've made a math error while staying hydrated.
Quote: prozemaI'm following you now. Thank you.
I still don't think a single misread in 41 hands puts you at a disadvantage. Ive had a few cocktails... I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time I've made a math error while staying hydrated.
That makes two of us. I think you’re likely right about not completely eradicating the edge. Btw I enjoy reading some of your slot work and your GWAE interview, thanks.
Quote: mcallister3200That makes two of us. I think you’re likely right about not completely eradicating the edge. Btw I enjoy reading some of your slot work and your GWAE interview, thanks.
It doesn’t. It changes the edge from 3.48% to 2.86%.
Over/under on the number of PMs Mosca has received asking where? I would set the line at 9.5
Quote: AcesAndEightsOf course no one has asked the obvious question...where's this dealer at!!?!?!??!
Over/under on the number of PMs Mosca has received asking where? I would set the line at 9.5
He can be found at the unemployment line
Quote: AcesAndEightsOf course no one has asked the obvious question...where's this dealer at!!?!?!??!
Over/under on the number of PMs Mosca has received asking where? I would set the line at 9.5
One thing I learned from watching youse guys here: when you find a play, keep it under your hat.
Quote: michael99000He can be found at the unemployment line
Could be, eventually. He was messing up the payouts. He needed to be corrected for short pays several times, and overpaid the lady to my right at least once (no one spoke, she collected an extra $10 on 4-4-4 when he paid 5-1 on her ante bet).
Quote: mcallister3200That makes two of us. I think you’re likely right about not completely eradicating the edge. Btw I enjoy reading some of your slot work and your GWAE interview, thanks.
Thanks for the kind words.
Dog Hand
When the dealer's hole card is flashed and is 2-J, and the player has J-x-x (Jack High) or lower (as low as 5-3-2), then the EV for Play depends upon the exact combination of cards but on average will be approximately -0.81. Which is clearly better than the EV for FOLD which equals -1.0.
For example:
Given you have Ts-7h-3d: for the following dealer upcards the EV for PLAY will be:
Jc: -0.7687
Tc: -0.7373
9c: -0.8316
8c: -0.8335
7c: -0.7858
6c: -0.8501
5c: -0.8548
4c: -0.8603
3c: -0.7373
2c: -0.8011
The above example illustrates the point that when the rank of the hole card is the same as one of the player's cards, then the player's advantage is greater -obviously because the dealer has a lower probability of pairing the hole card.
