TheNightfly
TheNightfly
Joined: May 21, 2010
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November 5th, 2010 at 4:33:10 PM permalink
*Edit* I should have made it more clear that once we employ this stragtegy once in any casino, we move on to another casino...


I've come up with an idea that I believe might give a team of (2) players a substantial advantage at 3CP. I have not put it into practice, nor do I intend to put it into practice but I thought I'd throw it out there and see if someone can find a way to make it more elegant and possibly even viable.

Let's suppose I'm playing 3CP with a partner with me at first base and him at 3rd. (I will assume we're playing in Vegas and AC where we cannot see a flashed card I will also assume a table max of $2,000 although I know that this limit is pretty steep for most carnie games.) The scenario plays out like this:

I sit down at first base and play the table minimum. I assume the mannerisms of a sleepy drunk, not paying attention and pitching my mucked hands in a disorderly fashion toward the dealer. After a suitable period of time my friend sits down at 3rd base and plays the table maximum on the ante (a $2,000 ante wager and no bonus wager). We show no indication of knowing each other. My partner signals to me his hand. If his hand is of a certain value or lower (Ace high for example), when I muck my hand, I muck it DIRECTLY INTO the dealer's hand in such a way that the two hands become mixed.

So, what happens next? I'm guessing that because the dealer cannot know what his hand was that the hand will be declared dead and all hands will push. I don't see how the hand can be played out or how a decision can be made. I get a reprimand from the pit and possibly asked to leave.

Now let's assume that my partner has a hand of a certain value or higher (one pair for example). I simply play or muck my hand as I usually would, my partner plays his hand and the dealer proceeds as usual.

Ok, I hope you see where I'm going with this but I'll spell it all out anyway.

Let's assume 48 Vegas and AC casinos that will accept a $2,000 ante wager. My partner plays with only one pair or higher. I kill the dealer's hand any time my partner's hand is less than one pair. We will play a hand (pair or higher) approximately 1 out of 4 times or 12 times in 48 hands. We will win approximately 4 times out of every 5 hands played. We will hit a straight or higher one time out of every 22 or so hands.

Keeping in mind that we may hit our pair or higher on the first hand 1 time out of every 4, this means we'll be able to play 2 or more hands in 25% of our trials. Let's assume a total of 60 hands played in our 48 casino visits.

75% of the hands (45) are pushed because they are not pair or higher and I kill the dealer's hand.
25% of the hands (15) are played with a pair or higher.
We will lose approximately 1 out of 5 played hands. (3)
We will win approximately 4 out of 5 played hands. (12)
3.7% of the hands will be a straight or higher and will pay a bonus of 1, 4 or 5 units.
EV per played hand is approximately 230% of ante bet.
Total win after 60 hands dealt (15 hands played) is approximately $40,000 at $2,000 per ante wager.

That's the idea. We come back and do the same thing every 3 months or so. "Working" 3 or 4 days, 4 times a year for $80,000 is not bad (minus the hotel stay and a few flights across the country).

I know my figures are VERY rough but I think they're close enough to see a huge EV. I chose a pair or higher as a starting hand but we could go as low as ace-face or whatever hand we determine gives us the best EV. I suppose this might also work for 4CP or even Pai Gow Poker.

The questions that arise are as follows.

Am I correct in assuming that I can kill the dealer's hand by mucking my hand into his?
Am I correct in assuming that this will kill all action?
Am I correct in assuming that the worst thing that happens to me is I get a nasty scowl or an escort to the nearest exit?
Would this work?

I don't look at this as the same as capping a bet or past posting although it is obviously in the same vein. I simply had this idea and I'd like to know if my rough calculations are close, assuming that the procedure is effective.

What do you think? Sure, it's possible that I'm simply setting myself up for criminal charges or that ethically it's not something anyone should do but I am curious to know your thoughts. I'm not concerned about someone running up and down the Strip and using my idea... actually, I'd love to see someone do it and tell the story.
Happiness is underrated
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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November 5th, 2010 at 5:05:42 PM permalink
I would say you would be committing a criminal act.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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November 5th, 2010 at 5:11:07 PM permalink
Quote: TheNightfly

My partner signals to me his hand. If his hand is of a certain value or lower (Ace high for example), when I muck my hand, I muck it DIRECTLY INTO the dealer's hand in such a way that the two hands become mixed.



In Nevada, that's a category B felony with a minimum 1 year prison term. I believe you'd be violating 456.070(1) and (2). You'd both be liable.

http://www.leg.state.nv.us/nrs/NRS-465.html
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
weaselman
weaselman
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November 5th, 2010 at 5:14:00 PM permalink
Quote: TheNightfly

I kill the dealer's hand any time my partner's hand is less than one pair.


I can't imagine how you'd be able to do it more than once, ok, maybe twice ... Suppose, they let it go once, and allow you to stay, but after you do it again, you'll definitely be on your way out. So, at most you'd be able to kill 2 bad hands. What kind of advantage is that?
"When two people always agree one of them is unnecessary"
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 5th, 2010 at 5:57:07 PM permalink
I would say that if the floorman was even minimally competent, he would observe the $2,000 bet and the killed hand (since he would have to be the one that ruled all hands dead), and ask surveillance to run the tapes from the time you and your friend sat down. Your faces would be noted for future reference. If you had been dumb enough to enter the casino together, or even a few minutes apart, that would be it--you would be toast. You'd never be able to pull that trick again. Not to mention the somewhat suspicious nature of your $2,000 player putting down a bet, the dealer's hand being killed, and his leaving without even playing a single hand after that. Surveillance could also observe him leaving the casino, and reconstruct him entering the casino, placing that one aborted bet, and leaving again

Casinos share information on this sort of thing. If the two of you are linked, as above, then there will be, at least, an informal grapevine, together with your photos, circulating a "keep an eye out for these guys" notice. And the moment you walked into a casino that was alerted to you--boom, felony cheating, with NO chance of avoiding a conviction and some fun prison time.

Would this "work"? Probably once or twice. Would it be worth the risk? Hell, no. (All ethical questions aside.)
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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November 5th, 2010 at 8:05:54 PM permalink
I agree with the other opinions that this is not 'advantage play'. It's cheating, and cheating on a criminal level at that.


That said, I'd like to address these three questions:
Quote: TheNightfly

Am I correct in assuming that I can kill the dealer's hand by mucking my hand into his?
Am I correct in assuming that this will kill all action?
Am I correct in assuming that the worst thing that happens to me is I get a nasty scowl or an escort to the nearest exit?

1 - I seriously doubt that you can successfully pitch your cards into the dealer's hand in such a manner that it becomes impossible to know which were the dealer's cards - all while pretending to be drunk.

2 - It *might* kill the action, if all the players were betting at or near the table minimum, as is normally the case. In such a situation, the floor person may, in the interest of fairness and good customer service, "do the right thing." If it happened with a $2,000 bettor at the table, very different story.

3 - Slap on the wrist? Hardly. If you somehow manage to escape prosecution, your photos will be shared with other casinos. And NOT just other casinos in the same corporate family, either.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
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November 5th, 2010 at 9:11:08 PM permalink
I just wish people knew how to win at gambling. Then we wouldn't be inundated with crazy theoretical stories like this one, there would be no such thing as Mr. Bluejay's make believe/what if thread, and we would not have to endure more of mkl's know-it-all opinion-injecting babble.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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November 6th, 2010 at 3:08:34 AM permalink
Quote: TheNightfly

I should have made it more clear that once we employ this stragtegy once in any casino, we move on to another casino...


Right there this thread is clearly not about Advantage Play but is instead about cheating.
I don't know for sure how things would go at Casino Number One, I think they would go rather poorly.
I do know that the phone call and faxed photos would arrive at Casino Number Two faster than the two participants could.
I also know the photos of the "Drunk" walking quite soberly thru the first casino to get to the exit door is going to make the surveillance room personnel laugh.

Let us assume that Casino One is a Strip casino. Phone calls and faxes would reach nearby Strip casinos real fast and they would reach Downtown casinos within thirty minutes. Most likely the 2KBettor and DrunkMucker would be having their Clark County Detention Center booking photos being taken within one hour and there would be a good chance that it would be within half an hour!

Those casinos cooperate with each other at the operations level even if they are mortal enemies at the marketing level. The casinos know what can really cost them money!
askywalker
askywalker
Joined: Nov 8, 2010
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November 13th, 2010 at 4:40:16 PM permalink
There is a fine line between advantage play and cheating so you need to learn the laws and be careful.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 13th, 2010 at 9:13:43 PM permalink
Quote: askywalker

There is a fine line between advantage play and cheating so you need to learn the laws and be careful.



There is no fine line at all. Advantage play is not cheating, and does not involve cheating. It involves making perfectly legal and allowable bets, and in the case of player-influenced outcomes, making the best possible decisions. Similarly, cheating is not advantage play. The two activities are as dissimilar as investing in the stock market and robbing a liquor store.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw

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