What is considered "long term" in craps?
I know your prob going to say you need millions or billions of rolls to prove long term, but yet why have I won? Am I a fool to think Vegas can be beaten at craps? I know you will say, look at the lights, building etc, where did this money come from?
My reply is that no craps player is doing what I am doing and I know that for a fact through the hundreds of hours of play the past year (watching other players) and through reading tons of crap strategies. This is not a joke thread either.
Though I don't know what this "real world dice rolls" means. If it was in a casino that usually means its real world.
Now when do you drop the other shoe and tell us this secret craps system can be ours by attending your secret seminar?
And do you, at that seminar, happen to point out that you never claimed to have a net result of being plus 4100?
To save time, I will summarize the next 20 posts.
IF what you say is true, then you were lucky.
Betting the pass line with high odds taken produces a high variance.
A run of good luck can produce the results you state.
Whatever system you are using will not produce a positive expectation of success.
AND- is this mrjjj joking with us as the roulette tables have gone cold?
Quote: jjj8882I started a craps system about a year and half ago and have won $4100 across 5-6 casinos. My bets are in the 5 dollar range with 4-6 times odds and I tracked exactly how many points were involved. I have recorded the system over 2,300 points which is about 10,000 real world dice rolls. Am not any where close to losing any money.
I know your prob going to say you need millions or billions of rolls to prove long term, but yet why have I won? Am I a fool to think Vegas can be beaten at craps? I know you will say, look at the lights, building etc, where did this money come from?
My reply is that no craps player is doing what I am doing and I know that for a fact through the hundreds of hours of play the past year (watching other players) and through reading tons of crap strategies. This is not a joke thread either.
How did you achieve craps nirvana with little or no help from wizardofvegas? You joined yesterday and have 2 posts. But you came here to tell us?
Quote: jjj8882I started a craps system about a year and half ago and have won $4100 across 5-6 casinos. My bets are in the 5 dollar range with 4-6 times odds and I tracked exactly how many points were involved. I have recorded the system over 2,300 points which is about 10,000 real world dice rolls. Am not any where close to losing any money.
2300 points should only be 7760 rolls. If you've seen 10,000 rolls, that means you're already way outside the norm. I'm not surprised you've won lots of money over those 10,000 rolls if you only had 2300 points, because that means you were rolling lots of numbers and proportionally fewer 7s. If you're betting pass/come, I would expect that you'd be way ahead. I would also expect that if you had another 2300 points that only took 7000 rolls, your same system would lose money.
Learn to recognize when you've been lucky. Your betting system didn't cause the dice to roll fewer 7s over your play to date. That was sheer luck -- and it can swing bad in a heartbeat.
Quote: jjj8882I came to ask all you experts if 2300 points plus whatever number of 7 and elevens throws outside of those points is enough to say craps can be beaten. My results differ from what the Wizard says will happen. He is doing computer simulations, I am in the real world. Can computer simulations be different than the real world? Im not trying to be a jerk here either.
I don't know what to say to you. You don't want to believe the math, then fine. Believe whatever the hell you want. If whatever your doing is working and you believe it will continue to work forever, then keep playing. Come back and update us with your results.
Quote: jjj8882I came to ask all you experts if 2300 points plus whatever number of 7 and elevens throws outside of those points is enough to say craps can be beaten. My results differ from what the Wizard says will happen. He is doing computer simulations, I am in the real world. Can computer simulations be different than the real world? Im not trying to be a jerk here either.
The point of simulation is to model the real world, just like they do when they build airplanes or boats or electrical circuits. Simulation allows you to test a design without putting money, time, or lives at risk. Modeling a six-sided die is trivial compared to modeling an airplane wing, but you must trust airplane simulations. You fly, right?
I am not sure on the exact number of rolls, but am totally positive on 2300 points. i just assumed 4 rolls per point plus all the 7's, 11's, 12's, 3's mixed in as well to approximate 10,000 rolls.
Quote: jjj8882I came to ask all you experts if 2300 points plus whatever number of 7 and elevens throws outside of those points is enough to say craps can be beaten.
My results differ from what the Wizard says will happen.
He is doing computer simulations, I am in the real world. Can computer simulations be different than the real world? Im not trying to be a jerk here either.
Your results differ from the Wizard's since you are in the "short run"
Theoretical... is long run or infinity
Empirical is actual results or observations in the short run and is a certain percentage of the long run.
I am getting to the end of my playing days and since I stayed with pass/odds and the don't/odds I show a lifetime net profit from my Craps play.
My sessions are all in WinCraps now, what a mess it was in notebooks and sheets of paper.
I have been playing since I was 21 and am now 73. I am up over $827....
I beat the casino and Craps!
But cancer and taxes will beat me in the end.
Quote: jjj8882
I am not sure on the exact number of rolls, but am totally positive on 2300 points. i just assumed 4 rolls per point plus all the 7's, 11's, 12's, 3's mixed in as well to approximate 10,000 rolls.
Advice from an old guy.
Take a notebook to the table and write all the rolls down. It is your proof. The casinos do not mind one bit.
Others will laugh at you but you can laugh right back and say you have the proof written down.
Proof speaks louder than assuming.
Quote: jjj8882I came to ask all you experts if 2300 points plus whatever number of 7 and elevens throws outside of those points is enough to say craps can be beaten. My results differ from what the Wizard says will happen. He is doing computer simulations, I am in the real world. Can computer simulations be different than the real world? Im not trying to be a jerk here either.
Yes computer simulations can be different, if you presuppose that the simulation has an error or area where it does not match the reality of the game. For craps, however, you'd have to suppose that there is something that means that the dice do not roll completely random, and that a previous roll influences the next one for some reason.
I find it unlikely that this is the case. By "unlikely" I mean unlikely on the same level that Elvis is still alive and that Sherilyn Fenn has a secret crush on me.
Quote: jjj8882Yes, but simulation *may/can* be wrong is what I have learned at this point. I'm sure all of you would have laughed when I first started it in July of 2009. First night was a big winner of $400. And went up from there. Peak profit was $5100 last spring, currenttly at $4100, off a down swing to $3700 in September. Have tried it on hot, cold, and choppy tables. 2300 points.
I am not sure on the exact number of rolls, but am totally positive on 2300 points. i just assumed 4 rolls per point plus all the 7's, 11's, 12's, 3's mixed in as well to approximate 10,000 rolls.
You're also assuming that the trends you've seen so far will continue. If they do, you'll continue to win, so good luck. But you already know you can lose with your system - between Spring of 2010 and September, you lost $1400. Do you suggest it was something other than bad luck?
Also, if you're having swings of $400 in a single night, a win of $3700 in 18 months is basically noise. Again, learn to recognize when you've been lucky. Don't chalk your winnings up to skill, or you'll have to chalk your losses up to skill too.
Quote: jjj8882Yes, but simulation *may/can* be wrong is what I have learned at this point. I'm sure all of you would have laughed when I first started it in July of 2009. First night was a big winner of $400. And went up from there. Peak profit was $5100 last spring, currenttly at $4100, off a down swing to $3700 in September. Have tried it on hot, cold, and choppy tables. 2300 points.
There's no reason to question simulation results just because they differ from yours. If the simulation was for a "long term", i.e. not broken up into sessions, then it's not the same thing at all as what you have experienced so far. If it was broken up into sessions, then some of them should have looked similar to your results.
Quote: jjj8882I am not sure on the exact number of rolls, but am totally positive on 2300 points. i just assumed 4 rolls per point plus all the 7's, 11's, 12's, 3's mixed in as well to approximate 10,000 rolls.
You don't say whether those points are all passline, or whether you are also making and counting come bets. In passline betting, you expect to get a point 2/3 of the time, so 2300 points implies about 3450 decisions, and the average number of rolls for a passline decision is 3.375, so that would be roughly 11,650 rolls (MathExtremist was just using 2300). Certainly, you wouldn't want to rely on a simulation of just 12,000 rolls. Assuming a $5 pass with 5X odds, for 3450 bets the ev is -243 and the standard deviation $1730, so +$4100 is about 2 1/2 SD "to the good". However, that is assuming flat betting just on the passline. You aren't saying what you are doing differently from that, but you say, "no craps player is doing what I'm doing". Do you have some reason, apart from the results, to think you have a system that gives you an edge over the casino?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: jjj8882I started a craps system about a year and half ago and have won $4100 across 5-6 casinos. My bets are in the 5 dollar range with 4-6 times odds and I tracked exactly how many points were involved. I have recorded the system over 2,300 points which is about 10,000 real world dice rolls. Am not any where close to losing any money.
I know your prob going to say you need millions or billions of rolls to prove long term, but yet why have I won? Am I a fool to think Vegas can be beaten at craps? I know you will say, look at the lights, building etc, where did this money come from?
My reply is that no craps player is doing what I am doing and I know that for a fact through the hundreds of hours of play the past year (watching other players) and through reading tons of crap strategies. This is not a joke thread either.
Your win is not nearly significant enough to draw any conclusions. Why have you won? Because you got lucky.
Are you a fool to think that a craps game can be beaten? Not exactly, but you ARE kidding yourself. You're no different from the little old lady in the Keno lounge who always bets her grandchildren's birthdays, and has hit several six-spots and is ahead $5000. Did she win because of her infallible play-the-birthdays system?
The most foolish thing you're saying is that "no craps player is doing what I'm doing". At any given time, the casinos are swamped with thousands of craps system players. Literally hundreds of millions of people have, throughout history, tried to do what you're doing. Some have won money, and convinced themselves that their systems were responsible for those wins. I GUARANTEE that your system, whatever it is, has been thought of before, played before, and has failed before. Many, many, many times.
I'll say this now, just once, and you'll pretty much ignore it. Craps system players somehow think that even though people have been trying and failing to construct a winning system for 400 years, THEY have figured out the one unique combination of bets that NOBODY ELSE HAS EVER THOUGHT OF, so those 400 years of failure don't mean anything--they never tried what MOI is going to try. Isn't that just a little bit silly? Isn't that just wishful thinking? Alchemists treid to turn lead into gold for centuries--and each one thought he had a new formula that NO ONE ELSE had ever tried. The fact of the matter is, it doesn't matter how often or in how many different ways you try to do the impossible--it remains impossible.
You don't believe a word I just said, so all I can do is wish you continued good luck.
What matters is I have the casinos money and know it is going to be extremely hard for them to win it ALL back. I don't see how it is possible, knowing what they have to do to win back $4100 at this point for me to say I lost money in this system. I may go sideways at this point, but that is ok, the goal is to not LOSE at craps and I don't see it happening.
What makes me laugh is the pit bosses pushing in their calculators how much I should lose based on house edge from Wizard of Odds, etc and I am smiling and kicking their ass.... something does not compute!! lol 2300 points have been played and your gettin your ass kicked casino???
Knowing my winnings are outside the normal standard deviation of 2300 points is the information I am after. Thanks for that fact. That is what I wanted to know by asking all of you guys. My winnings are abnormal at this point or 2300 points of good luck have just occurred by coincidence.
Quote: jjj8882I came to ask all you experts if 2300 points plus whatever number of 7 and elevens throws outside of those points is enough to say craps can be beaten. My results differ from what the Wizard says will happen. He is doing computer simulations, I am in the real world. Can computer simulations be different than the real world? Im not trying to be a jerk here either.
Of course Craps can't be beaten (without cheating). If it could, the casino wouldn't offer it. That's how it works...
Quote: jjj8882I just try to win $100 each session with a stop loss of 400. So its rare to lose 400, but it does happen and had an awful spell in September, BUT I was so up so far on them I didn't think they could earn it all back quickly.
I ran a quick sim like this:
$400 bankroll
$5 pass w/5 X odds
stop when bankroll exceeds 500
or
not enough left to make a bet
or
400 rolls and next roll is a comeout
I ran 20,000 sessions
busts: 3232
even: 3
wins: 14406 (includes 14,168 reaching the win goal)
losses: 5591 (includes all the busts, of course)
overall net: mean -$3 standard deviation $207
So, you have gotten a very favorable sample of all those possible outcomes.
Quote: jjj8882What matters is I have the casinos money and know it is going to be extremely hard for them to win it ALL back. I don't see how it is possible, knowing what they have to do to win back $4100 at this point for me to say I lost money in this system. I may go sideways at this point, but that is ok, the goal is to not LOSE at craps and I don't see it happening.
Keep in mind that it's possible for the next 2300 points to come out as unfavorably as these have favorably, although there's no reason they should. What I mean is, there's no "adjustment" in the cosmos to even things out. The $4100 is in "the bank" and if the rest of your lifetime's play turns out to have no net deviation from the mean expectation, it will be a long time, if ever, before the casinos get it back. If you start tossing coins and the first 10 are all heads, your expectation for the first 100 rolls is now 55, not 50. There's no "cosmic correction".
Quote: jjj8882What makes me laugh is the pit bosses pushing in their calculators how much I should lose based on house edge from Wizard of Odds, etc and I am smiling and kicking their ass.... something does not compute!! lol 2300 points have been played and your gettin your ass kicked casino???
The pit bosses sometimes get upset when people win a lot, but if they think about it they know that there's somebody on the other end of that distribution getting hammered.
Quote: jjj8882Knowing my winnings are outside the normal standard deviation of 2300 points is the information I am after. Thanks for that fact. That is what I wanted to know by asking all of you guys. My winnings are abnormal at this point or 2300 points of good luck have just occurred by coincidence.
Don't conclude that your system works, only that is HAS worked, for you, so far. With all the thousands of players "rolling dem bones", there are bound to be some experiencing unusual luck. What is extremely unlikely for any one player is a certainty among many thousands.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
1. Here is another question. What is the expected return and standard deviations for a player that plays pass line for $6 flat pass and $60 odds for 2300 pointss?
Like our friend Headlock . . . *shudder*Quote: goatcabin
The pit bosses sometimes get upset when people win a lot, but if they think about it they know that there's somebody on the other end of that distribution getting hammered.
Quote: jjj8882Thanks for the info Alan, and thanks also the rest of you. (who believe me when I said I have made this amount).....it has been a very very favorable outcome for me based on your simulation of what *should* happen....
You misinterpret the results, jjj. There is no "should". The overall ev is the arithmetic mean of all the 20,000 outcomes. The chances of actually having one of those sessions come out to a $3 loss is quite small. It's like the classic 244/251 passline expectation for 495 bets -- the probability of winning exactly 244 out of 495 passline bets is only about .03, but if a million players each bet the passline 495 times, and you add up all their wins and divide by a million, you would get very close to 244.
Quote: jjj88821. Here is another question. What is the expected return and standard deviations for a player that plays pass line for $6 flat pass and $60 odds for 2300 pointss?
Are you still talking about $400 bankroll and $100 win goal?
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
and for the second question, lets say one session is 2300 straight points with no stop loss limits...so in another words, what is the average return in dollar amounts for 2300 points at one marathon session with $6 pass and 60 odds on pass...
Quote: teddysLike our friend Headlock . . . *shudder*
Before I misinterpret, what do you mean?
Quote: jjj8882I am confused what your analysis is saying.. are you saying after all the simulations (showing all profits and losses for 20000 sessions), on average the shooter would lose $3 dollars in each session?
The "average" by itself can be the most misunderstood number.
Look at the standard deviation that goatcabin also showed. It is as important to show the SD along with the average to get a better picture of what the average really means.
Example: some session ending bankrolls
-$400
-$440
-$398
-$380
$434
$394
$392
$394
$374
-$400
-$400
$394
Total NET profit is -$36.00
The "average" from the above 12 sessions is -$3.00 but as you can see it never happened in 1 session to lose exactly $3 it never even came close.
So the average in this example is extremely misleading.
The standard deviation is $418.21. That is very large compared to the average so now we see how wide the spread is from the average.
Quote: jjj8882I am confused what your analysis is saying.. are you saying after all the simulations (showing all profits and losses for 20000 sessions), on average the shooter would lose $3 dollars in each session?
What I am saying is that, if you add up the net session outcomes for all 20000 sessions and divide by 20000, you get -$3, although probably not a single session actually came out at exactly $3 loss. So, do not say, "in each session". An arithmetic mean can be very deceiving, because it does not reflect the spread of values. That's why there are other types of average, like median (half of the values higher, half lower) and mode (most frequently occurring value), and measures of "dispersion", like variance and standard deviation, and other measures like skew and kurtosis. These are numbers that describe the shape of the graph you would get if you plotted all the outcomes. BTW, WinCraps produces both types of information, data and histograms.
Quote: jjj8882and for the second question, lets say one session is 2300 straight points with no stop loss limits...so in another words, what is the average return in dollar amounts for 2300 points at one marathon session with $6 pass and 60 odds on pass...
Without any stop loss or win goal, IOW, each session goes for 3450 passline bets (of which 2300 are expected to NOT be resolved on the comeout), I did it two ways:
The theoretical ev is -$292.73, standard deviation $3809.30, ev/SD .0768, implying a probability of breaking even or better of .4694.
Theoretical HA is .001845, figured as ev/total bet handle, including odds.
I also ran 10,000 sessions of 3450 bets, with these results:
mean outcome: -$314
standard deviation: $3785.60
winning sessions: 4621
breakeven sessions: 5
losing sessions: 5374
percentage of sessions breaking even or better: .4626, quite close to the ev/SD estimate
sample HA was .001978
Of the 10,000 sessions, 1215 had net wins of at least $4100, 3616 at least $1000, whereas 4309 lost at least $1000, and 1580 lost at least $4100.
So, you can see that with 10X odds there is a huge spread of outcomes that we expect to see from this kind of play. 57 "players" lost at least $10,000, and 33 won that much.
So, you see, you really shouldn't draw the conclusion that your system "works", in the sense that it gives you a positive expectation.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
1. What number of points is needed to prove then the house has an edge? For example if you simulate 50,000 points, is there any players that show a profit? lets do 6 pass 60 odds
2. Also, can you give me the numbers for 5 pass and 6 x odds, for 2300 points.
Quote: jjj8882Alan.
1. What number of points is needed to prove then the house has an edge? For example if you simulate 50,000 points, is there any players that show a profit? lets do 6 pass 60 odds
2. Also, can you give me the numbers for 5 pass and 6 x odds, for 2300 points.
The answer to the first question is zero. You can do the math without any simulation whatsoever and derive the chances of winning and losing the passline, which are 49.3% and 50.7% respectively. Since you only make even money, the house has a 1.41% edge over you. If you do simulate 50,000 points, there will definitely be players who show a profit. There will also be many players who have lost far, far more than the 1.41% edge would indicate. The average over all of them should be close to the 1.41% number, however.
Quote: jjj8882The casino will never get this money back.
I'd be willing to lay 1000-1 against this statement.
Quote: MathExtremistThe point of simulation is to model the real world, just like they do when they build airplanes or boats or electrical circuits. Simulation allows you to test a design without putting money, time, or lives at risk. Modeling a six-sided die is trivial compared to modeling an airplane wing, but you must trust airplane simulations. You fly, right?
Did that come from one of those 5000 books, from your last Mensa get-together, or from the 2nd grader you had stay after school on Friday?
Quote: JerryLoganDid that come from one of those 5000 books, from your last Mensa get-together, or from the 2nd grader you had stay after school on Friday?
LOL. Now he's quoting a different person from the one he's trying to insult! Man, what a stumbling clown.....
Quote: JerryLoganDid that come from one of those 5000 books, from your last Mensa get-together, or from the 2nd grader you had stay after school on Friday?
Don't be ashamed just because you've never read a book, and you didn't get admitted to Mensa because you couldn't understand the test directions.
And just how would it be something to sneer at if I taught second-graders? In fact, I teach high school, but if I taught elementary school, I would be proud of that, too.
You know, if I said I was from Michigan, you'd make some asshole remark about Michigan. If I said I was a bus driver, you'd make some asshole remark about bus drivers. If I said I had cancer, you'd make a joke about cancer victims. And I'm sure if I said I was Hispanic or Jewish, you'd make a joke about "Spicks" or "Kikes". You're just that kind of shithead.
Quote: mkl654321Don't be ashamed just because you've never read a book, and you didn't get admitted to Mensa because you couldn't understand the test directions.
And just how would it be something to sneer at if I taught second-graders? In fact, I teach high school, but if I taught elementary school, I would be proud of that, too.
You know, if I said I was from Michigan, you'd make some asshole remark about Michigan. If I said I was a bus driver, you'd make some asshole remark about bus drivers. If I said I had cancer, you'd make a joke about cancer victims. And I'm sure if I said I was Hispanic or Jewish, you'd make a joke about "Spicks" or "Kikes". You're just that kind of shithead.
Oops. Jerry made a mistake. One in a million!
You're one proud Mensaman, yes you are....No joke.
I though spick was spelled spic?? We use 'em to grease our axels.
All this stuff....YES, it's about you Mr. mkl. The more you make it up as you go, the more I'll keep exposing you. You do it to yourself and you just can't help yourself, you know, like when you swore to block me for good!
I'm betting those high-schoolers have one big laugh after a know-it-all session with you!
Quote: JerryLoganOops. Jerry made a mistake. One in a million!
You're one proud Mensaman, yes you are....No joke.
I though spick was spelled spic?? We use 'em to grease our axels.
All this stuff....YES, it's about you Mr. mkl. The more you make it up as you go, the more I'll keep exposing you. You do it to yourself and you just can't help yourself, you know, like when you swore to block me for good!
I'm betting those high-schoolers have one big laugh after a know-it-all session with you!
Fuck you, Jerry.
(that's the only response you're getting from now on)
so how many points will be needed for them to get this money back you think? 2300 more?
Quote: jjj8882Alan.
1. What number of points is needed to prove then the house has an edge? For example if you simulate 50,000 points, is there any players that show a profit? lets do 6 pass 60 odds
Well, that would be 75,000 bets. With $6 pass, $60 odds, the ev for 75,000 bets is -$6363.64 with a standard deviation of $17,760.96, so, yes, you would expect over a third of players to be even or ahead, but you'd also have players who had lost well over $20,000, even over $35,000. Ten times odds is a LOT of variance.
There is no need to prove the house has an edge with a simulation; it's built into the passline bet, as MathExtremist says.
Quote: jjj88822. Also, can you give me the numbers for 5 pass and 6 x odds, for 2300 points.
That's pretty close to the original info I gave you.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: jjj8882Went for another session tonight..profit of $152. Last 7 sessions all wins and up $800 after the disaster in september. All but $100 has been recovered from sept disaster.The casino will never get this money back. I am either going to go up or sideways as time goes on. So if i do go sideways and say 5 years from now show a profit of 5k after say 7500 points, what does this mean?
Actually, with this kind of strategy, you can expect mostly winning sessions, along with the occasional "disaster"; that is how the simulation looks, too. There is no reason for you to expect that you will either go up or sideways. As I said before, you're just as likely to have a stretch of really bad luck as you are to have a stretch of really good luck.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
So what your simulations are saying is that it is indeed possible for some players to win at craps after a long run (thousands of points), but most players will be losing to make the casino profit long run.....
Quote: jjj8882MKL, would you have bet laid 1000 to win 1 that when I started that i would not be up $4k after 2300 points played?? God i wish there was a way to do this bet with you.........its not going back to them.....sidways at best
so how many points will be needed for them to get this money back you think? 2300 more?
No, I would not. People get lucky, and more than one in a thousand do so. However, what you claimed is that the casino would "never get its money back". THAT is what I would bet 1000-1 against, because you think you can beat them, and you'll be back. As a matter of fact, that 1000-1 chance doesn't mean you have a one in a thousand chance of not losing it back; it means that you have that much chance of dying before you have the opportunity to do so. If you stick around for any length of time, the casino WILL get its money back.
Quote: jjj8882So what your simulations are saying is that it is indeed possible for some players to win at craps after a long run (thousands of points), but most players will be losing to make the casino profit long run.....
That's true for the strategy you outlined -- $6 pass, take $60 odds on points -- with no bankroll considerations at all. The reason for this is that you have a very low expected loss, just 8 1/2 cents per bet, on an average bet amount of $46 (because you get a point only 2/3 of the time), with a standard deviation of almost $65. This spreads the graph out enormously, with long tails on both ends. There will always be "outliers".
As far as the casinos' chances of winning the $4100 back are concerned, suppose you play another 2300 points, 3450 pass bets. Within that time, it's not very likely that they will get the whole amount back, because the expected loss is not even $300. You would have to be almost (but not quite) as unlucky as you have been lucky so far. As I wrote before, the $4100 is "in the bank"; there is no "cosmic rubber band" pulling you back to the ev. This issue has been discussed on another thread. I will quote briefly from "The Mathematics of Games and Gambling", by Edward Packel, in the section where he discusses the "normal approximation to the binomial distribution":
"The results *do not* say that a winning streak will tend to be counterbalanced by a corresponding run of losses (or vice versa!)."
and later:
"Comparing the corresponding probabilities for the two roulette bets we see that the higher odds (longshot) bet affords larger probabilities of being ahead in every case."..."Is there a catch in this strategy? Yes, for a large bet longshot-based strategy also increases your probability of losing larger amounts and losing quickly."
In the instant case, you are combining low house edge (1.414%), applied ONLY to the amount of the flat bet ($6), with high variance and GOOD LUCK. Your ongoing expectation is not affected by your past luck, unless you are misled by your success into increasing your bets. I would say that neither the casinos, nor you, should be
particularly confident.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Quote: jjj8882I had two stretches of bad luck, they ironically they each occurred in September of the past two years.
This one's easy! Just don't play in September, and you'll always stay on the positive side from now on!
alan---
I would say that neither the casinos, nor you, should be
particularly confident.
Why shouldnt the casino be confident in getting this money back? (assuming I keep playing) After all, they do supposedly have the edge over me from a math standpoint.
Because you are playing a close to even game with high variance, and they don't like that. Casinos are most afraid of large odds bettors on craps, and big-betting baccarat punters. They are the only ones who can really damage the casino in one fell swoop. (Not counting card counters, VP/sports sharpies, or operators, who usually do their damage imperceptibly over a long period of time). Blackjack, slots, and roulette players they know they can wear out in the long-term.Quote: jjj8882Why shouldnt the casino be confident in getting this money back? (assuming I keep playing) After all, they do supposedly have the edge over me from a math standpoint.
So I am willing to lose or give back 7083 playing 10x odds before I will say they have beaten me.
Quote: jjj8882alan---
I would say that neither the casinos, nor you, should be
particularly confident.
Why shouldnt the casino be confident in getting this money back? (assuming I keep playing) After all, they do supposedly have the edge over me from a math standpoint.
As Teddys says, the expected loss only attaches to the flat $6 pass bet, so if your luck is average, they will only catch up slowly. I guess that is what you call "going sideways" If you keep betting long enough and have average luck, they will get their money back, but it would take a long time, over 13 times as long as you have already played. However, the assumption there is that all your odds bets even out, leaving just the 1.414% edge on the flat bet.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
