February 15th, 2019 at 6:17:11 AM
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So here are the "rules" or lack of...

There are 37 players, each player has his/her own number to play and they play

that number only, every spin.

No progression - flat betting only. No skipping spins, no qualifications, etc.

Just every spin they bet their number for a total of 3,000 spins.

They flat bet $25.00 per spin.

Here are the results when the 3,000 spins are completed :

Player Outcome Low High

0) -2100 -4625 3900

1) -3000 -4375 4750

2) -3900 -3900 4750

3) -3900 -3900 5850

4) 7800 -3475 8850 Winner

5) -7500 -10700 3575

6) -6600 -6600 2475

7) 3300 -2350 7700 Winner

8) -6600 -6950 2950

9) -2100 -4825 7525

10) 4200 -3100 6525 Winner

11) 600 -6575 3075 Winner

12) 3300 -5575 3875 Winner

13) -4800 -8450 3100

14) -6600 -7650 0

15) -5700 -8050 2350

16) -300 -3525 4050

17) 2400 -3900 3350 Winner

18) -16500 -17400 1325

19) -18300 -19550 575

20) 6000 -1900 10125 Winner

21) 3300 -625 9400 Winner

22) 11400 -3875 11450 Winner

23) 9600 -6300 9950 Winner

24) -13800 -14725 4400

25) 7800 -950 8325 Winner

26) 12300 -2325 14775 BEST

27) -8400 -11075 375

28) -3900 -5600 3500

29) -1200 -3750 2875

30) -6600 -10500 1725

31) -15600 -17325 625

32) -19200 -19200 325 WORST

33) 5100 -1600 6350 Winner

34) 2400 -4825 2875 Winner

35) -2100 -3700 4025

36) 4200 -9250 7025 Winner

House Outcome

75000 75000

Winners(14) 71400 Total: 37.83%

Losers (23) -146400 Total: 62.16%

Winners (lowest): -9250

Top Winners: Outcome Lowest

22) 11400 -3875

23) 9600 -6300

4) 7800 -3475

25) 7800 -950

20) 6000 -1900

33) 5100 -1600

10) 4200 -3100

36) 4200 -9250

7) 3300 -2350

12) 3300 -5575

21) 3300 -625

17) 2400 -3900

34) 2400 -4825

11) 600 -6575

14 players would have won - flat betting their specific number over 3,000 spins played.

So you can assume that you have a 37.83% chance of winning by simply flat betting one number

for this long. The total that the winners made was $71,400.00 (or 2,856 units).

This is 204 units profit average per person.

You can also assume that you have a 62.16% chance of losing flat betting one number

for this long. The total that the losers lost was $146,400.00 (or 5,856 units).

This is 254.61 units lost average per person.

The "house" made $75,000.00 (as expected) or 3,000 units in total.

=====================================================

Worth noting of course is that EVERYONE (aside from #14) made a profit and

had they stopped at that point, they would have left in profit.

That means 36 players flat betting would ALL have walked out a winner.

This means if you flat bet a single number, you have a 97.3% chance of winning

your playing session, instead of 37.83% if you never stopped.

Also, when you factor in #14's outcome of all 3,000 spins - and combined it

with the profits that all other 36 players achieved (had they stopped on any profit)..

the entire group won as a whole making it a 100% success rate overall.

In the big picture - over 3,000 spins of possible played spins in the session - the

entire group of 37 people won - if the profits are split (of course).

All player in total made a profit of $9,375.00 (or 375 units) for a split of

$253.38 per person.

But here's the house edge... which I found interesting.

If you flat bet and stop on any profit - you had a 97.3% chance of walking out

a winner. You have a 2.7% chance of walking out a loser. I won't post the house edge

for a single zero table - but it's 2.7% :)

Player Stop on Any Profit Spins Balance All

0) 75 465 Winner 75

1) 575 13 Winner 650

2) 175 29 Winner 825

3) 200 28 Winner 1025

4) 750 6 Winner 1775

5) 875 1 Winner 2650

6) 350 22 Winner 3000

7) 100 32 Winner 3100

8) 475 17 Winner 3575

9) 350 58 Winner 3925

10) 50 142 Winner 3975

11) 425 19 Winner 4400

12) 200 100 Winner 4600

13) 725 7 Winner 5375

14) -6600 3000 Loser -1275

15) 775 5 Winner -500

16) 325 275 Winner -175

17) 500 16 Winner 325

18) 100 428 Winner 425

19) 175 65 Winner 600

20) 800 4 Winner 1400

21) 600 12 Winner 2000

22) 525 15 Winner 2525

23) 350 1066 Winner 2875

24) 850 2 Winner 3725

25) 575 49 Winner 4300

26) 625 119 Winner 4925

27) 375 21 Winner 5300

28) 625 623 Winner 5925

29) 50 70 Winner 5975

30) 250 26 Winner 6225

31) 625 11 Winner 6850

32) 325 59 Winner 7175

33) 550 14 Winner 7725

34) 825 3 Winner 8550

35) 150 30 Winner 8700

36) 675 9 Winner 9375

6,861 spins total (all players combined) and $9,375.00 profit total (or 375 units)

Hopefully in this format and explanation (no errors this time) the info

will be useful.

I see a good argument in here for "random has limits".. but that's for another

thread in the works.

If you want a suggestion on how to use this info to win, I would simply

suggest to play a number, increase the bet 1 unit on any win better than

37 spins and drop it back to 1 unit on any win more than 37 spins and stop when

in profit. Even the doomed #14 would have ended this test in profit that way

because it was (at one point) climbing right back to the expected hit rate

as it's going to do (or "drifting" if you prefer). (on spin 2,239 it was only down

7 units down and 1 win would have made it end in profit...)

=======================================================

Cheers

There are 37 players, each player has his/her own number to play and they play

that number only, every spin.

No progression - flat betting only. No skipping spins, no qualifications, etc.

Just every spin they bet their number for a total of 3,000 spins.

They flat bet $25.00 per spin.

Here are the results when the 3,000 spins are completed :

Player Outcome Low High

0) -2100 -4625 3900

1) -3000 -4375 4750

2) -3900 -3900 4750

3) -3900 -3900 5850

4) 7800 -3475 8850 Winner

5) -7500 -10700 3575

6) -6600 -6600 2475

7) 3300 -2350 7700 Winner

8) -6600 -6950 2950

9) -2100 -4825 7525

10) 4200 -3100 6525 Winner

11) 600 -6575 3075 Winner

12) 3300 -5575 3875 Winner

13) -4800 -8450 3100

14) -6600 -7650 0

15) -5700 -8050 2350

16) -300 -3525 4050

17) 2400 -3900 3350 Winner

18) -16500 -17400 1325

19) -18300 -19550 575

20) 6000 -1900 10125 Winner

21) 3300 -625 9400 Winner

22) 11400 -3875 11450 Winner

23) 9600 -6300 9950 Winner

24) -13800 -14725 4400

25) 7800 -950 8325 Winner

26) 12300 -2325 14775 BEST

27) -8400 -11075 375

28) -3900 -5600 3500

29) -1200 -3750 2875

30) -6600 -10500 1725

31) -15600 -17325 625

32) -19200 -19200 325 WORST

33) 5100 -1600 6350 Winner

34) 2400 -4825 2875 Winner

35) -2100 -3700 4025

36) 4200 -9250 7025 Winner

House Outcome

75000 75000

Winners(14) 71400 Total: 37.83%

Losers (23) -146400 Total: 62.16%

Winners (lowest): -9250

Top Winners: Outcome Lowest

22) 11400 -3875

23) 9600 -6300

4) 7800 -3475

25) 7800 -950

20) 6000 -1900

33) 5100 -1600

10) 4200 -3100

36) 4200 -9250

7) 3300 -2350

12) 3300 -5575

21) 3300 -625

17) 2400 -3900

34) 2400 -4825

11) 600 -6575

14 players would have won - flat betting their specific number over 3,000 spins played.

So you can assume that you have a 37.83% chance of winning by simply flat betting one number

for this long. The total that the winners made was $71,400.00 (or 2,856 units).

This is 204 units profit average per person.

You can also assume that you have a 62.16% chance of losing flat betting one number

for this long. The total that the losers lost was $146,400.00 (or 5,856 units).

This is 254.61 units lost average per person.

The "house" made $75,000.00 (as expected) or 3,000 units in total.

=====================================================

Worth noting of course is that EVERYONE (aside from #14) made a profit and

had they stopped at that point, they would have left in profit.

That means 36 players flat betting would ALL have walked out a winner.

This means if you flat bet a single number, you have a 97.3% chance of winning

your playing session, instead of 37.83% if you never stopped.

Also, when you factor in #14's outcome of all 3,000 spins - and combined it

with the profits that all other 36 players achieved (had they stopped on any profit)..

the entire group won as a whole making it a 100% success rate overall.

In the big picture - over 3,000 spins of possible played spins in the session - the

entire group of 37 people won - if the profits are split (of course).

All player in total made a profit of $9,375.00 (or 375 units) for a split of

$253.38 per person.

But here's the house edge... which I found interesting.

If you flat bet and stop on any profit - you had a 97.3% chance of walking out

a winner. You have a 2.7% chance of walking out a loser. I won't post the house edge

for a single zero table - but it's 2.7% :)

Player Stop on Any Profit Spins Balance All

0) 75 465 Winner 75

1) 575 13 Winner 650

2) 175 29 Winner 825

3) 200 28 Winner 1025

4) 750 6 Winner 1775

5) 875 1 Winner 2650

6) 350 22 Winner 3000

7) 100 32 Winner 3100

8) 475 17 Winner 3575

9) 350 58 Winner 3925

10) 50 142 Winner 3975

11) 425 19 Winner 4400

12) 200 100 Winner 4600

13) 725 7 Winner 5375

14) -6600 3000 Loser -1275

15) 775 5 Winner -500

16) 325 275 Winner -175

17) 500 16 Winner 325

18) 100 428 Winner 425

19) 175 65 Winner 600

20) 800 4 Winner 1400

21) 600 12 Winner 2000

22) 525 15 Winner 2525

23) 350 1066 Winner 2875

24) 850 2 Winner 3725

25) 575 49 Winner 4300

26) 625 119 Winner 4925

27) 375 21 Winner 5300

28) 625 623 Winner 5925

29) 50 70 Winner 5975

30) 250 26 Winner 6225

31) 625 11 Winner 6850

32) 325 59 Winner 7175

33) 550 14 Winner 7725

34) 825 3 Winner 8550

35) 150 30 Winner 8700

36) 675 9 Winner 9375

6,861 spins total (all players combined) and $9,375.00 profit total (or 375 units)

Hopefully in this format and explanation (no errors this time) the info

will be useful.

I see a good argument in here for "random has limits".. but that's for another

thread in the works.

If you want a suggestion on how to use this info to win, I would simply

suggest to play a number, increase the bet 1 unit on any win better than

37 spins and drop it back to 1 unit on any win more than 37 spins and stop when

in profit. Even the doomed #14 would have ended this test in profit that way

because it was (at one point) climbing right back to the expected hit rate

as it's going to do (or "drifting" if you prefer). (on spin 2,239 it was only down

7 units down and 1 win would have made it end in profit...)

=======================================================

Cheers

February 15th, 2019 at 6:29:24 AM
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You ran extremely lucky, which can happen in a small(3000) sample size. I'll let a better math guy than me address it, but to only have one out of 37 never be positive is quite lucky. Probably average is 3 or so. Your max win on any number is 875. Your max loss is 75,000. Probably half the time you get at least one 5000 loss.

Let the math guys have at it!

Let the math guys have at it!

February 15th, 2019 at 6:40:06 AM
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I'm not a math guy and I did not read more than a couple lines. But I think i am not going out on a limb here by saying its roulette, it can't be beat, and leave it at that.

February 15th, 2019 at 7:04:31 AM
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This is awful. Carry on, nothing to see here.

February 15th, 2019 at 7:21:54 AM
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The lesson I’ve taken away from this is, don’t bet on #14.

I’ll report back with my results

I’ll report back with my results

February 15th, 2019 at 7:33:43 AM
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Using the 2nd chart, might want to start betting a straight-up number in sequence and change the number you're betting on by +1 and raise the bet 1 unit each time you advance to a new number after no winners after 37/38 spins. Seems some numbers are just so dead you can't stay long. 23 times out of 37 times a winner came along within 37/38 spins. You could stay on the same number and keep winning on it until it loses after 37/38 spins in a row, then move on to the next number. If you're at 2 or more units on a win, reduce 1 unit.

February 15th, 2019 at 8:29:57 AM
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By definition of your trial someone will win the first spin and everyone else will have lost. So if everyone stopped when they were ahead then one person wouldbail out with +35 units and the other 36 people would be -1 into the second round.

For a while, unless a number repeats, several people will give up until on the 37th spin anyone still left in the game is 36 down and some have had their number come up and set a profit of 36 or less.

From about there it's going to take two numbers coming up before people still in the game can show a profit, after 70 spins it's three times etc.

So your trial will probably show a profit if numbers didn't tend to repeat earlier. Thus you need to rerun many trials of 3000 to get a fair idea. I'm guessing in cases where the same numbers kept coming up you'd be in bad shape as lots of people would be building up their losses and in the long run this offsets the good runs.

For a while, unless a number repeats, several people will give up until on the 37th spin anyone still left in the game is 36 down and some have had their number come up and set a profit of 36 or less.

From about there it's going to take two numbers coming up before people still in the game can show a profit, after 70 spins it's three times etc.

So your trial will probably show a profit if numbers didn't tend to repeat earlier. Thus you need to rerun many trials of 3000 to get a fair idea. I'm guessing in cases where the same numbers kept coming up you'd be in bad shape as lots of people would be building up their losses and in the long run this offsets the good runs.

February 15th, 2019 at 8:59:15 AM
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Hi Turbo, welcome to the forum(I guess).Quote:TurboGenius

Just so you know, the Boss man Mr. Michael Shackleford AKA The Wizard is not as tolerant as places like the corrupt GamblingForums when it comes to roulette and other -EV games betting systems. You won't find any love from the Moderators, Advantage Players, Math guys or Regulars here either.

=======================================================

cheers

♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪

February 15th, 2019 at 9:20:55 AM
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Moderators doing exorcisms out there. Really don't need that for this.

February 15th, 2019 at 11:01:30 AM
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Quote:TurboGeniusWorth noting of course is that EVERYONE (aside from #14) made a profit and

had they stopped at that point, they would have left in profit.

That means 36 players flat betting would ALL have walked out a winner.

This means if you flat bet a single number, you have a 97.3% chance of winning

your playing session, instead of 37.83% if you never stopped.

Of course - in part because 61.7% of the time, one of your first 35 bets (assuming a single-zero wheel) will win, which means you are ahead. It's where the amounts you win when you stop versus the amounts where you lose when you stop (either voluntarily or by force - presumably, because your bankroll is zero, or you have to leave the table for some reason) differ that show you what effect the House Edge really has.

I ran a simulation of 50,000 sessions where there were 37 players, each of which flat-bet on a different number, and stopped either when they were ahead for the first time or there were 1 million spins.

Here's what I got:

1/56 of the time, everybody was ahead within the first 1000 spins

1/19 of the time, everybody was ahead within the first 2000 spins

1/12 of the time, everybody was ahead within the first 3000 spins

1/9 of the time, everybody was ahead within the first 4000 spins

13.1% of the time, everybody was ahead within the first 5000 spins

19.6% of the time, everybody was ahead within the first 10,000 spins - that means that 4 out of every 5 times, at least one person is never ahead at any point in 10,000 bets of a particular number.

Of course, the larger your initial bankroll is, the more likely you are to be ahead at some point by flat betting.

I ran another simulation of how many spins it will take for someone to either be ahead at some point, or always be behind in 1,000,000 spins.

In 3.5 million "runs," I get:

75% of the plays are ahead before getting to 100 spins

84.7% are ahead before 300 spins

87.9% are ahead before 500 spins

91% (about 10 out of every 11) are ahead before 1000 spins

93.1% (about 13 out of every 14) are ahead before 2000 spins

94.1% (about 16 out of every 17) are ahead before 3000 spins

95% (about 19 out of every 20) are ahead before 5000 spins

On the other hand, about 1 out of every 36 players will be behind after every spin even after 1,000,000 spins.

Last edited by: ThatDonGuy on Feb 15, 2019