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100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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September 15th, 2019 at 6:28:34 AM permalink
Bought in for $500, playing $10 ante/$10 blind with no Trips.
Lost that. Bought in for $400 more.
Lost all $900 in 2 1/2 hrs following the wiz's basic strategy with just 1 other player at the table. :(

Variance of this game is about 24, similar to double bonus vp.
But would it be similar to $5 db ($25/spin) because of the $20 initial bet or more similar to $10 db ($50/spin) when I add the 1x/2x/4x bet?

(Want to see how many deviations my losses are aka how badly I'm running.)
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Sep 15, 2019
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Vegasrider
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December 2nd, 2019 at 6:32:04 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Bought in for $500, playing $10 ante/$10 blind with no Trips.
Lost that. Bought in for $400 more.
Lost all $900 in 2 1/2 hrs following the wiz's basic strategy with just 1 other player at the table. :(

Variance of this game is about 24, similar to double bonus vp.
But would it be similar to $5 db ($25/spin) because of the $20 initial bet or more similar to $10 db ($50/spin) when I add the 1x/2x/4x bet?

(Want to see how many deviations my losses are aka how badly I'm running.)



$500 seems to be my average buy in . I too bet $10 with no trips. Been playing this for two years now, almost by the book. I have deviated a bit by not 4X K6 and K5 off suit, and I generally will not call with a high card in the hole unless the board is paired. I donít like to risk betting an additional $10 in hopes of getting paid even money, and possibly losing all $30. Call it surrender if you like.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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December 2nd, 2019 at 7:52:47 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Bought in for $500, playing $10 ante/$10 blind with no Trips.
Lost that. Bought in for $400 more.
Lost all $900 in 2 1/2 hrs following the wiz's basic strategy with just 1 other player at the table. :(

Variance of this game is about 24, similar to double bonus vp.
But would it be similar to $5 db ($25/spin) because of the $20 initial bet or more similar to $10 db ($50/spin) when I add the 1x/2x/4x bet?

(Want to see how many deviations my losses are aka how badly I'm running.)



In my experience, you ran pretty bad. It usually turns around in $500 playing $10 ante for me.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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December 5th, 2019 at 8:42:17 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

In my experience, you ran pretty bad. It usually turns around in $500 playing $10 ante for me.

do you press your bets or just flat bet?
and when do you quit? (besides losing your buy in)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Vegasrider
Vegasrider
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Thanks for this post from:
beachbumbabs
December 6th, 2019 at 1:56:18 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

do you press your bets or just flat bet?
and when do you quit? (besides losing your buy in)



That is one area that I have yet to figure out, knowing when to press or if its even advised to vary your bets. I've run it on the simulator. But generally my bets remain flat. The key is how often your 4X bets win and to know when to place them since 99.5 % of the players who I have witness don't know or either just don't.

Since I consider this game as a slow grind, I have the patience to play around 8 hrs, sometimes less and sometimes more. I treat this game like its a real live poker game. I am willing to rebuy just like I would in a live poker game. I have been in $1000 betting $10 and have gotten out multiple times. I will limit my loss to a dime, that might have happened a couple of times.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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December 6th, 2019 at 5:10:59 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

do you press your bets or just flat bet?
and when do you quit? (besides losing your buy in)


I flat bet. Cards shuffled every hand, so have no memory, and the game is very volatile, so I enjoy the roller coaster ride without getting too far underwater.

I quit when I've doubled up, or lost what I was willing to lose.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
100xOdds
100xOdds
Joined: Feb 5, 2012
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December 7th, 2019 at 10:45:57 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I flat bet. Cards shuffled every hand, so have no memory, and the game is very volatile, so I enjoy the roller coaster ride without getting too far underwater.

wiz has said this game has a variance of 25, similar to double bonus in video poker.
var=25 is considered high?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
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December 7th, 2019 at 4:19:39 PM permalink
some 4x bets are -ev but it's less -ev than checking.
ie: k5o checking = -0.1511 but betting 4x is -0.1176

but other 4x bets are +ev and more +ev than checking.
ie: A2s checking = +0.1665 but betting 4x = +0.3999

Can there be a betting system applied only when the 4x bet is +EV?
ie: modified Martingale

- Start at $5 ante
- every time you lose a 4x bet, you increase your Ante bet by $5. for 2x/1x bets or even fold after the river card, your Ante bet stays the same no matter win or lose
- you stay at that bet level until you win or lose at 4x bet level.
a) if you win, drop back to $5
b) if you lose, increase by $5
c) rinse/repeat

this modified Martingale system only applies to 4x on +EV bets.
so if you bet 4x on k5o and lose, your bet stays the same since k5o is -EV.

Example-
Hand 1 ($5 Ante): k5o, bet 4x, and you lose
Hand 2 ($5): JJ, bet 4x, and you lose
Hand 3 ($10): 78 suited, bet 1x and you win
Hand 4 ($10): AKo, bet 4x and you lose
Hand 5 ($15): j2o, you fold on the river
Hand 6 ($15): KQ suited, bet 4x, and you win
Hand 7 ($5): ...

the theory being if it's +EV, betting systems work.
if not modified Martingale, then what system could be used?
if not true and betting system wont work on +EV 4x bets, then why not? Where's the flaw in my logic?
Last edited by: 100xOdds on Dec 7, 2019
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)

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