ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 813
January 10th, 2019 at 4:58:05 AM permalink
Hi,

just want to make sure that if an online baccarat game was fair, would the EV be about +1/81 or +2/179 for an 8-deck game playing the banker with no commission, per round?

Note: i got the figure from WoO of a banker vs players as about 1.235%(if paid at even money on banker), but would like to know if it is closer to 1.1174...% (1.235% x 1- chance of a tie) per round of betting (because a tie results in a push).

Also what would the difference of player vs banker be with an infinite deck? I can assume it would be slightly less than +1.235% in the bankers favor.

last but not least, how big a bank-roll and what would the minimum number of games be to 'guarantee a profit' betting at \$1.00 per game ?

(I think a bank-roll of between \$200 to \$300 should be enough to 'safely wager' \$1.00 per bet but would still like to know what other people think)

Also Note: please don't confuse this game with commission free baccarat, as the game above is played with regular rules (except it pays even money on banker)

Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 10, 2019
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 813
January 10th, 2019 at 7:17:48 PM permalink
Update:

since the game doesn't tell you what the pay tables are I played all sides of the game at the same time (in demo mode) to work out the current pay-table for this game, which is:

even money for banker and player (banker should be a good bet, player is not a good bet)
8 to 1 for the tie bet (so not a good bet)

I will also see if the game plays according to the drawing rules at the website below:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/#toc-Rules

for the game in the OP, what would the drawing rules have to be to make both the player and banker bet 0% EV? (i understand this is probably an extremely hard question to answer, so I don't really expect one, but I still wanted to ask)

edit (716 am USA EST): I am almost certain that the drawing rules are the same as stated on the above website
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 11, 2019
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 813
January 23rd, 2019 at 7:01:13 PM permalink
Bad news, the casino pays \$1.95 for banker bets now.

Too bad for me, as I lost \$280 doing \$40 a hit on banker (when the game was still paying \$2.00 for banker).
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
• Posts: 6675
January 24th, 2019 at 4:57:36 AM permalink
Quote: ksdjdj

Bad news, the casino pays \$1.95 for banker bets now.

Too bad for me, as I lost \$280 doing \$40 a hit on banker (when the game was still paying \$2.00 for banker).

What makes you think that an online casino offering a game so much in favor of the player was offering a game that was not rigged? There is no way to tell for sure with your likely small sample size, but if you would have asked me what are the odds that you would be getting a fair game I'd have said way less than 50%. Consider it a \$280 lesson... I'd stay away from that site going forward.....
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
• Posts: 813
January 24th, 2019 at 3:58:41 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

What makes you think that an online casino offering a game so much in favor of the player was offering a game that was not rigged? There is no way to tell for sure with your likely small sample size, but if you would have asked me what are the odds that you would be getting a fair game I'd have said way less than 50%. Consider it a \$280 lesson... I'd stay away from that site going forward.....

Thanks SOOPOO,

I did a little research (read reviews, did demo play and then \$1.00 real money hits for about 22,000 hands) before I started playing for "table max" money.
But I only managed to get in an estimated 2200 hands @ \$40 per hand before they changed the payout to \$1.95.

According to the website below, the result for "\$2 banker" was still within 1 SD, so we will never know if it was a "fair game".

Also, like you said, it was probably too small a sample size for the \$40 per hand bets.

Was it too small a sample for the \$1.00 bets?

I personally think the "\$1.00 per hand test" was a fair enough size to pursue further at the \$40 per hand bets, (but I am not as good at using math/probability as a lot of other people on this site, so I could be wrong)

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/calc.htm

Data used
Deposit: \$4,000
Wagering: \$88,000
Bet size: \$40
House Edge (%): -1.1174
Standard Deviation: 0.93
Expected Return: \$957.58
Chance of Bust: 0.5%
1 Standard Deviation: -\$787.25 to \$2702.42

also, I did 40 hours @ about 550 hand per hour, during the \$1.00 per hand test and won \$217 during that test (which is still within 1 SD)

In the end I really only lost \$63 cash and about 64 hours of total time 'lost' (20 hours demo mode, 40 hours \$1.00 test, and 4 hours of \$40 per hand betting)

Now that I have provided you with information that was not in the previous posts, what do you think the chance of it being a fairly dealt /"not rigged" game was ? (because, I personally don't know how to estimate it)

thanks again for the post
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jan 24, 2019