3 Card Pair Plus

So I went to Vegas for the first time this past weekend. I didn't know a lot about gambling before I went. I played a lot of 3 card poker. The first few times I played, I never bet the pair plus (which would have come in handy when I hit my straight flush one time). I really only played pair plus once and lost it all pretty quickly.

My question is if there is anyone out there that does not ever play the pair plus? Personally, I think its where the casinos make most of their money on this game, but as I said, I don't know a ton about gambling. While I realize I might miss out on some huge payouts, I also think its a better payout in the long run.

Any comments? Thanks!

The Wiz gives his analysis: https://wizardofodds.com/threecardpoker

You're right in avoiding the Pair Plus bet altogether; the house edge on it is even worse than the house edge on the basic bets, which is pretty bad. Depending on the paytable, you're fighting a house edge of around 3.5 to 4 percent, which makes it a real money-muncher. The most common paytable for the Pair Plus bet has a house edge of 5.57%. So you make your money disappear even faster if you make the Pair Plus bet. Your expected loss from the Ante+Play wagers is actually greater, because the amount of those combined bets is larger than the single PP bet, but the PP bet costs you the most money per dollar wagered.

The above is one reason I like Pai Gow Poker; the bonus bet carries a very low house edge, and under some circumstances, can even have a lower house edge than the basic player bet.

I play some 3 Card, not as much as I used to; I'm trying to convert to the rhythm of Blackjack.

The thing you have to remember about the pairs plus bet is that you'll lose more than 40 of these with no pairs long before you hit your next straight flush. The same holds for pairs, flushes, straights, and trips; you'll lose more than once per pair, thrice per flush, 6x per straight and 30x per trips. Added up, and rounded off, with the most common pay table (40-30-6-3-1) you'll lose about 10 chips for every 9 you win (100 for every 93).

(Edited to add for mkl654321, you don't see that pay table here on the east coast, it's almost always the one I mentioned above. Mt Airy is the only place I've seen better, they actually pay 40-30-6-4-1, for a house advantage of only 2.32%! I actually got hooked on this game when the element of risk for the ante was 2.01% and the h/e for pairs plus was 2.32, which IMO made it the best of the miscellaneous games.)

That being said, 3 Card playing pairs plus can still be fun, as long as you approach it with your eyes open and aren't all ticked off when your chips get sucked off the table like dust by a Dyson. Set a limit and stick to it, either time or chips. Walk away when you hit the number, up or down, regardless. I usually set $500 or one hour. If I win or lose $500, I stop. When I hit an hour, I usually stop, regardless of where I am. Adjust the numbers to what is comfortable for you. Not sayin' I never break the time limit, but I try not to.

Quote: luked

My question is if there is anyone out there that does not ever play the pair plus? Personally, I think its where the casinos make most of their money on this game, but as I said, I don't know a ton about gambling. While I realize I might miss out on some huge payouts, I also think its a better payout in the long run.

Any comments? Thanks!

Firstly, the pair plus bet is also where the players win and the casinos can lose a bit of money - the pair plus bet is just more volitile than the ANTE + Play bets.

As a dealer, 95% of the players do play the Pair-plus bet. If you want to reduce volitility, bet less on the pair plus/more on the ANTE and PLAY bets.

As for having a "better payout" in the long run, that is to mean a positive payout in the long run, then it's best to not play gambling games. I think the bonus bet can make for some winning sessions - when it hits. You mentioned you had a straight flush during your session: if you had played it, you would have won 40:1, the "jackpot" of the game.

In playing gambling games - you can look at the math, or look at the action. A few months ago I bought into a Three Card Poker game for $100. I played $5 on the Pair plus, $10 each on the ANTE and PLAY, and a dollar on the progressive bet. My first hand was a mini-Royal for over $800, and I went to $221 a hand immediately: $100 on the ANTE, $100 on the play, $20 on the pair plus, and $1 on the progressive. After getting a pair hand and winning, I repeated that huge bet and got three queens: the win was $60 on the progressive, $600 on the $20 pair plus, and $500 on the ANTE (4:1 ANTE bonus plus with 1:1 win), and $100 on the play, as the dealer qualified. I then left with my wife with about $2,000 after playing just a few minutes.

Quote: mkl654321

Your expected loss from the Ante+Play wagers is actually greater, because the amount of those combined bets is larger than the single PP bet, but the PP bet costs you the most money per dollar wagered.

I think the H.E. on the regular ante is just applied to the ante itself, not the play. You only make the play bet when you are ahead in the hand. So, the "bad bet" is the ante. The play is the "good bet." Also, as the Wizard and Mosca says, the Element of Risk in 3CP isn't that bad when you consider the house edge in relation to units wagered, since you make the play bet about half the time. For what it's worth, I can't stand the game. Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em (where available) and other poker based games like WPT All In offer a much better bet.

Quote: teddys

I think the H.E. on the regular ante is just applied to the ante itself, not the play. You only make the play bet when you are ahead in the hand. So, the "bad bet" is the ante. The play is the "good bet." Also, as the Wizard and Mosca says, the Element of Risk in 3CP isn't that bad when you consider the house edge in relation to units wagered, since you make the play bet about half the time. For what it's worth, I can't stand the game. Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em (where available) and other poker based games like WPT All In offer a much better bet.

No, the HE is calculated on the aggregate of both bets, making the assumption that you will make the Play bet optimally. You wouldn't exactly play this game making only the Ante wager.

I agree with you that the game sucks.

Quote: mkl654321

No, the HE is calculated on the aggregate of both bets, making the assumption that you will make the Play bet optimally. You wouldn't exactly play this game making only the Ante wager.

I agree with you that the game sucks.

Yeah, I wasn't sure I wanted to try any of the Hold 'Em tables, even though I've played a lot in the past with friends/tournaments. What's the advantage to these games (over, say, 3 Card or BJ)?

I just can't handle playing BJ at the casino...Other people take it way too personally when you make a play they don't agree with. Maybe this is true for all games.

Quote: luked

Yeah, I wasn't sure I wanted to try any of the Hold 'Em tables, even though I've played a lot in the past with friends/tournaments. What's the advantage to these games (over, say, 3 Card or BJ)?

The advantage is not mathematical, but rather it is a funner game because people don't care when you "screw up." The camaraderie at the table is better. The Element of Risk is about the same as blackjack. You will lose less than in 3CP. Sometimes a casino will comp you generously because they overestimate your theoretical loss. Sometimes other players will let you bet their hand, which is a useful advantage play. There are a lot of positives.

My game of choice is Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em because I like the betting structure and the optional "Trips" bet (1.9%). To paraphrase the guy in the Dos Equis commercial, I don't always play side bets, but when I do, I prefer Trips. I recommend consulting the strategy at discountgambling.net before you play.

Quote: mkl654321

No, the HE is calculated on the aggregate of both bets, making the assumption that you will make the Play bet optimally. You wouldn't exactly play this game making only the Ante wager.

Right, but isn't the H.E. applied to both bets the Element of Risk, which is a slightly lower number? That's what I understand from the Wizard's page

Quote: teddys

Right, but isn't the H.E. applied to both bets the Element of Risk, which is a slightly lower number? That's what I understand from the Wizard's page

No. Element of Risk, defined by the Wizard, is a function of the total bet and the average loss. For a game like 3CP or Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em, where you often make additional bets after the cards are dealt, the Element of Risk is greater than the house edge. For a game like Let it Ride, where you usually REDUCE your bet after the cards are dealt, the EoR is smaller than the house edge. In any game where you never make an additional bet after the initial one, and never reduce your initial bet, the EoR and the house edge are the same. For a game where you do make additional bets, but those bets are always positive expectation and/or increase the overall expectation of the original bet+the additional bet(s) beyond the expectation of the initial bet, the EoR is smaller than the house edge (an example of this last is blackjack).

I agree with you but the EoR for UTH and 3CP *is* in fact less than the H.E.: 2.01 vs. 3.37 for 3CP and .5 vs. 2.16 for UTH. Those bets made after the initial bet are positive expectation bets. I would argue that it is comparable to blackjack, rather than the opposite.

The element of risk is lower than the HE for 3 Card because you have the option to fold losing hands.

I never played 3 card poker til I fell in love with a 3 card dealer. I new it wasn't a good bet, but neither is love, so I played. I kept track for 3 months and I won $1200!! I was getting straight flushes, trips and flushes like nobodies business. I played Pairs+. There was no love connection with the dealer. But we had a good time. 3 card is a simple diversion when I get tired of BJ or craps.

Quote: luked

My question is if there is anyone out there that does not ever play the pair plus? Personally, I think its where the casinos make most of their money on this game, but as I said, I don't know a ton about gambling. While I realize I might miss out on some huge payouts, I also think its a better payout in the long run.

Any comments? Thanks!

I've been playing 3 card for a few months now, and no, I never play the Pairs+. I'm fairly small time at this, but I'm currently up about $300-$400 since August (I go to the casino about once or twice a month. I've had 5 straight winning trips.) I've hit lots of pairs in that time, several flushes, a few straights, and one trips and one straight flush. Yes, it hurts a little to not get those 30-1 or 40-1 payouts, but it would bug me more to win a hand and still have money taken from me when I don't make a pair, and I still win from the ante bonus on those large hands. And I am somewhat superstitious and feel like if I started betting the pairs+ now that I would not keep getting as good hands.

Overall, since August I'm up between $700-$800 on the Boot Hill Casino in Dodge City, KS, playing 3 card and craps. Like some of the others, I have a definite amount that I stop at. I buy in for $100. If I win $100, I figure I've doubled my money and I quite that particular game and go on to the next (in other words, if I win a 100 at craps I move on to 3 card, and vice versa.) Once I've won $100 at each I might try Ultimate too, or go on home depending on how I feel my luck is going and on how late it is. So far, the best I've ever done at Ultimate is break even, and no I don't play the trips there either. If I ever lose $100 at 3 card, or about $150 or so at craps (I allow myself to lose a little more at craps because that game has a wider variance, and I've had a couple of times where I was down about $120 or so and came back to break even or actually win), I go ahead and quit for the night (at least that's what I've told myself I'll do. Since deciding on these rules, I've never hit a loss that high.) When I first started playing I tried a couple of time to win more than $100 at a table, and always ended up losing so I've decided to make that a very strict rule for myself.