FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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June 13th, 2017 at 6:55:29 AM permalink
Quote: davethebuilder

A coin and a roulette ball have no memory so future results cannot be predicted . . .


True but roulette is not played solely with a little white ball and a roulette wheel, it is played with people and those people do have memory and hopes and dreams so asking the players to consider the little white ball rather than their own hopes and dreams is not likely to gain you any friends.

Note: I sure do like that "Casino Enemy No. 1" tag line.

I've fallen for such false reasoning and when you add in a festive atmosphere, low cut evening gowns, perfume, alcohol, music, the sounds of chips and coins, etc. do you really think those who are not already enemies of the casino will think clearly. Those annunciator boards showing recent results bring in alot of money. Half the players are followers of the board, half are contrarians, but few ignore it as being utterly unrelated to the next spin.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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June 13th, 2017 at 7:23:55 AM permalink
Admittedly I did not read the entire article, but in the spirit of the article it appears they're just attempting to USE short term variance to explain why a bet may or may not be a 50/50 at any given time. While you can use math to do tricky things like this, it must be understood that this is false at the end of the day, and in the long run. The law of large numbers rules these debates, and time and time (and simulation) again the numbers come out exactly to what they're supposed to be.

I had a physics teacher in high school that used a bit of trickery like this to explain that lights do not emit light and that in fact they are "dark suckers" similar to a black hole. The closer you get the more dark they suck in and the further away the less powerful they are, etc, etc. At the end of the day all of us idiotic high schoolers were like "omg mathematically he's right" then he promptly made fun of us for accepting a couple of his base lines where he did some trickery like this that were essentially false claims.

He also had another experiment, which I think even today is still cute, but it involves similar trickery. Basically, you can "mathematically prove" a 50/50 is ONLY a 50/50 if you believe it is. What it boils down to is sampling size. Say craps pass/don't pass was a perfect 50/50. If someone only played craps 10 times in their life for 1 throw only... Then their results will be PURE variance. It will NOT be 50/50 it will literally just come down to luck. It's the same idea with a coin toss or any 50/50 (or even other odds)... The idea is if the person doesn't get enough trials in their lifetime, then from the perspective of their lifetime the event is NOT a 50/50 (or whatever the true odds are). One could use math to show that over multiple lifetimes it does come out to the true odds, sure... BUT do I personally care about multiple lifetimes? If from the time I'm alive to the time I die the odds aren't 50/50 for me, then it's not a 50/50, regardless of what you say mathematically. This is a fun one to ponder over different scenarios and really makes you think about real life perspective when relating to mathematics... something mathematicians don't often do =).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
davethebuilder
davethebuilder
Joined: Jan 11, 2015
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June 13th, 2017 at 7:41:53 AM permalink
I guess I wasn't considering the human factor, just the logic. Roulette is a fun game played by people from all walks of life and in my area there are many superstitious Asian players who study the board intensely before placing bets. They keep a record of all results well beyond what is shown on the board and huddle together for a strategy meeting just prior to the next spin hoping that the lucky spirits are with them. It's a cultural thing and no mathematical logic is going to change their minds. Sometimes they win big but mostly lose.

Also, I don't really hate casinos and the reason is I remember the old illegal gambling dens that use to exist around town. They were organised mainly along ethnic lines and the police were always raiding them and shutting them down. Today, it is much better as the games are properly supervised in a safe environment. Sure, the odds are with the house in the vast majority of cases and that is the price of entertainment. My local store makes good profits, pays heaps of tax and employs literally thousands of people.
Casino Enemy No.1
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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June 13th, 2017 at 1:19:33 PM permalink
These guys do quite well, despite what probability may suggest. Or maybe they are finding "wheels" that are indeed miscalibrated.

Anyhow, here is the academic paper linked below showing that heads following heads (which is now a restricted sequence) is indeed closer to 40%.

https://goo.gl/8qFrcW

""The researchers began their paper with a basic example to illustrate their findings: an experiment in which a person throws a coin in the air four times. "We noted the results of each throw, and calculated the percentage of heads tossed immediately after another head for all possible throw sequences. The results were unexpected: the proportion is not 50%, as we intuitively believe, but actually around 40%," Sanjurjo tells us, adding that "these results suggest the existence of a bias."""
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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June 13th, 2017 at 1:37:40 PM permalink
What this paper takes 32 pages to say is that if you use an incorrect method of recording results, you will come to an incorrect conclusion. Measured correctly, the answer is 50% on average.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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June 13th, 2017 at 2:31:32 PM permalink
Quote: QFIT

What this paper takes 32 pages to say is that if you use an incorrect method of recording results, you will come to an incorrect conclusion. Measured correctly, the answer is 50% on average.


Yes. Is it me, or was that source paper pretty badly written? Almost like it was written to deliberately bamboozle? It sure got some coverage, which is probably getting monetized somehow.
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.
QFIT
QFIT
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
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June 13th, 2017 at 2:34:03 PM permalink
I had the exact same feeling. The writing is convoluted and appeared to deliberately confuse.
"It is impossible to begin to learn that which one thinks one already knows." -Epictetus
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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June 13th, 2017 at 3:29:07 PM permalink
This should help with the thinking on this.

https://twitter.com/jben0/status/657331384604823553/photo/1
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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June 13th, 2017 at 3:36:29 PM permalink
OD,

The guys that wrote the paper surely aren't idiots (nor are the people who I've know to make money at roulette). How they do it is in dispute though? To me this topic is interesting. I suspect the same for many who read this site.

Good find at the link you posted that shows the counter argument: https://sinews.siam.org/Details-Page/hot-hands-streaks-and-coin-flips-how-the-new-york-times-got-it-wrong

Quote: OnceDear

Not many here would be daft enough to waste there time reading flawed proofs of the gambler's fallacy.
I took a quick look and as soon as I saw that someone was taking the unweighted average of a set of ratios, I concluded I was reading the work of idiots and saved myself any more wasted time.
Well, just a tiny bit.
https://sinews.siam.org/Details-Page/hot-hands-streaks-and-coin-flips-how-the-new-york-times-got-it-wrong
.405 is the answer to a maths question: It is not the probability of any fair coin toss.

Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 13, 2017
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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June 13th, 2017 at 5:51:31 PM permalink
if you have a big edge betting black after 3 reds in a row have come at roulette

JUST IMAGINE THE GIGANTIC EDGE THAT YOU WILL HAVE IF YOU BET BLACK AFTER 10 REDS IN A ROW HAVE COME

MY GOD YOUR EDGE MUST BE AROUND 90% WHEN THAT HAPPENS

i can't talk anymore, i've got to go. i'm taking out a 2nd mortgage and then i'm headed out to track red and black on roulette wheels. i won't be back for a few months.


hahahahahahahahahahhahahah
everybody wants to go to heaven. but nobody wants to die.

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