TheoHuxtable
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January 13th, 2017 at 4:59:25 PM permalink
How much edge Is gained hole carding Pai Gow Poker?
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teliot
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January 13th, 2017 at 5:02:17 PM permalink
None. You need to see at least 3 dealer cards to get a hole-carding edge in PGP.
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TheoHuxtable
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January 13th, 2017 at 6:01:37 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

None. You need to see at least 3 dealer cards to get a hole-carding edge in PGP.



Thanks for the quick response. Do you know what the exact give back is seeing one card? I understand it's not enough to flip the HA but I'm still curious to know how minimal the impact is.
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teliot
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January 13th, 2017 at 7:14:45 PM permalink
Napkin estimate the player gains about 0.20% when seeing one hole-card.
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Paigowdan
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January 13th, 2017 at 10:51:02 PM permalink
You can get this extra 0.20% by using a tighter house way than the casino's.
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RS
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January 13th, 2017 at 11:12:05 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

You can get this extra 0.20% by using a tighter house way than the casino's.



Using HC info would be more fun.
Zcore13
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January 14th, 2017 at 12:12:14 AM permalink
You're probably better off spending time looking at the cards of the people on both sides of you. I've had pretty decent luck doing this to decide if I want the dragon hand.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
SOOPOO
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January 14th, 2017 at 5:03:41 AM permalink
I have enjoyed playing center seat at a full table , sometimes having access to 35 cards. It allows me to reassess the value of having a weak ace with two pairs. For example, if I have 9's and 6's and an ace 4, and know the dealer cannot have an ace, it is easy to play the ace 4 in the low hand. If there are 3 aces remaining in the 17 remaining cards I'd be more likely to split the 9's and 6's. Same concept with evaluating how strong a king/queen is.
Once, at a 'dragon hand' table, I could usually see a single card in the dragon hand. I would take the hand if it showed an ace, king, or joker.
bw
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January 14th, 2017 at 5:17:33 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I have enjoyed playing center seat at a full table , sometimes having access to 35 cards. It allows me to reassess the value of having a weak ace with two pairs. For example, if I have 9's and 6's and an ace 4, and know the dealer cannot have an ace, it is easy to play the ace 4 in the low hand. If there are 3 aces remaining in the 17 remaining cards I'd be more likely to split the 9's and 6's. Same concept with evaluating how strong a king/queen is.
Once, at a 'dragon hand' table, I could usually see a single card in the dragon hand. I would take the hand if it showed an ace, king, or joker.



The trouble with that is that if there are 3 aces remaining the dealer is very likely to have a pair of aces, so you would have been better off to keep the two pair together.
Deucekies
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January 15th, 2017 at 10:16:22 PM permalink
Quote: bw

The trouble with that is that if there are 3 aces remaining the dealer is very likely to have a pair of aces, so you would have been better off to keep the two pair together.



Beat me to it.

I'd be more interested in splitting the pairs if I saw only one ace remaining.
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SOOPOO
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January 16th, 2017 at 6:19:57 AM permalink
He is MORE likely to have one ace than 2. So my analysis stands.
Deucekies
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January 16th, 2017 at 11:30:23 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

He is MORE likely to have one ace than 2. So my analysis stands.



Explain how? If the table is full, and you can see all the player's cards, there are eleven unseen cards. If those eleven cards contain three aces, you propose the four card muck is more likely to have two aces than the dealer's seven card hand?

Edit: Rereading your post, you're not suggesting a full table. You're suggesting a 5/6 full table, giving one more place for aces to be. Fair enough.
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SOOPOO
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January 16th, 2017 at 1:33:14 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Explain how? If the table is full, and you can see all the player's cards, there are eleven unseen cards. If those eleven cards contain three aces, you propose the four card muck is more likely to have two aces than the dealer's seven card hand?

Edit: Rereading your post, you're not suggesting a full table. You're suggesting a 5/6 full table, giving one more place for aces to be. Fair enough.



My comment is not about how many people are at the table. It is about how many actual cards I can see. If I'm in the middle I can usually see two to my left and two to my right. Including mine that is five hands so 35 cards. I try not to make it so obvious that I would actually ask the sixth player what his cards are! At my Seneca Niagara Casino, they don't seem to care about much. If I play across the border in Canada, they actually would not want me looking at my girlfriends hand even if she is sitting right next to me. I highly doubt that my seeing the cards gets me to a positive expected value situation, but for me it is sure fun that rare time I can use the information effectively to alter my strategy
Deucekies
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January 16th, 2017 at 2:12:00 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

If I'm in the middle I can usually see two to my left and two to my right. Including mine that is five hands so 35 cards. I try not to make it so obvious that I would actually ask the sixth player what his cards are!



Sounds fair. So with 18 unseen cards, you're hoping two of them will land outside the dealer's hand. That seems reasonable.

Where you'd get lucky is if the guy at the end is the whiny sort who's constantly showing his hand to everyone saying "Look at this garbage I keep getting!" Then you've seen all six. :)
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teliot
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January 16th, 2017 at 2:30:18 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Sounds fair. So with 18 unseen cards, you're hoping two of them will land outside the dealer's hand. That seems reasonable.

Where you'd get lucky is if the guy at the end is the whiny sort who's constantly showing his hand to everyone saying "Look at this garbage I keep getting!" Then you've seen all six. :)

Full table six-person perfect collusion will not beat Pai Gow Poker. Pai Gow Tiles is a different matter.
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TheoHuxtable
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January 16th, 2017 at 2:56:50 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Full table six-person perfect collusion will not beat Pai Gow Poker. Pai Gow Tiles is a different matter.



Is this also the case with one dealer hole card exposed?
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teliot
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January 16th, 2017 at 3:13:01 PM permalink
Quote: TheoHuxtable

Is this also the case with one dealer hole card exposed?

I don't know. But, I would guess at best it is about break-even.

The problem with PGP is that there are very few hands where there is a real choice on how to set the hand. In PGT you can play for hi/lo or balance on nearly every hand. In PGP, it is much less frequent to have a real choice.

The other big problem is that HC + full-table collusion is a very difficult problem to solve. That is simply too much information to share and process in any meaningful way at the table.

No edge + human-infeasible strategy = no opportunity.
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SOOPOO
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January 16th, 2017 at 4:04:50 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

Full table six-person perfect collusion will not beat Pai Gow Poker. Pai Gow Tiles is a different matter.



Been at pie gow tiles table where it is obvious that all the players are discussing if they had teens or days.
teliot
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January 16th, 2017 at 4:12:03 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Been at pie gow tiles table where it is obvious that all the players are discussing if they had teens or days.

PGT has a lot of game protection issues. A source says an 8.5% collusion edge at PGT with a full table (I have never worked it out). I have seen surveillance footage of these teams. It's impressive.
Last edited by: teliot on Jan 16, 2017
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DRich
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January 16th, 2017 at 6:43:01 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

PGT has a lot of game protection issues. A source says an 8.5% collusion edge at PGT with a full table (I have never worked it out). I have seen surveillance footage of these teams. It's impressive.



Is collusion at PGT considered cheating by Nevada Gaming or just against house rules?
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
teliot
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January 16th, 2017 at 7:08:07 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

Is collusion at PGT considered cheating by Nevada Gaming or just against house rules?

I have never seen a law against players sharing the values of their cards/tiles with other players in any jurisdiction internationally. It certainly does not meet the cheating statue in the NRS. That said, after Ivey, it may be viewed as "cheating for the purpose of civil law" - as good Justice Mitting called it.

NRS 465.015

"cheat" means "to alter the elements of chance, method of selection, or criteria" which determine: "(a) the result of a game; (b) the amount or frequency of payment in a game; (c) the value of a wagering instrument; or (d) the value of a wagering credit."
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DRich
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January 16th, 2017 at 7:31:06 PM permalink
Quote: teliot

I have never seen a law against players sharing the values of their cards/tiles with other players in any jurisdiction internationally. It certainly does not meet the cheating statue in the NRS. That said, after Ivey, it may be viewed as "cheating for the purpose of civil law" - as good Justice Mitting called it.

NRS 465.015

"cheat" means "to alter the elements of chance, method of selection, or criteria" which determine: "(a) the result of a game; (b) the amount or frequency of payment in a game; (c) the value of a wagering instrument; or (d) the value of a wagering credit."




Great post. Thank you.

I was only considering criminal prosecution but that ruling really does obfuscate prior interpretations of the statutes and regulations. It wouldn't surprise me if gaming regulators convince the state to prosecute a player based on similar circumstances.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
teliot
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January 16th, 2017 at 7:47:45 PM permalink
Quote: DRich

I was only considering criminal prosecution but that ruling really does obfuscate prior interpretations of the statutes and regulations.

PGT players do a lot of stuff that is definitely cheating. I would venture that it is the "most cheated" casino table game as a percentage of players who play the game.
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Deucekies
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January 17th, 2017 at 11:30:58 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

Full table six-person perfect collusion will not beat Pai Gow Poker. Pai Gow Tiles is a different matter.



Agreed. That's why California is able to have a variation of Pai Gow where the dealer's hand is revealed first.
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TheoHuxtable
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January 17th, 2017 at 3:27:36 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Agreed. That's why California is able to have a variation of Pai Gow where the dealer's hand is revealed first.

Very interesting... can you provide more info on this game? Where it's played, how its dealt, etc?
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Deucekies
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January 17th, 2017 at 4:51:35 PM permalink
Quote: TheoHuxtable

Very interesting... can you provide more info on this game? Where it's played, how its dealt, etc?



Enjoy.
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