November 15th, 2016 at 8:04:00 PM
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It seems to me most of wizard's gambling analysis focuses on house edge, but for me an equally important factor is volatility. Every time I go to a casino I have the same question: given the amount of bankroll I have (say $2000), if I play $25 minimum pai gow poker using the simple strategy, on average how many hands can I play before I go broke? What about $10 minimum ultimate texas holdem? Is there a place that I can find answers to this type of questions?
November 28th, 2016 at 1:54:09 AM
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I can't do much for pai gow but the STD for UTH is around 4.94 antes
Assuming you play x hands,
Wagered: 10x dollars worth of ante
Standard dev: 4.94x
Casino's ev: roughly around .02x
Asuming average scenarios, which you will fall in 68% of the time, you'll stand to win 49.2x and lose 49.6x of antes
divide this by your bankroll of 2000, x is around 40.3
Adjusting for Standard deviations, I think you'll last a good 50 or so hands, depending on your luck
Assuming you play x hands,
Wagered: 10x dollars worth of ante
Standard dev: 4.94x
Casino's ev: roughly around .02x
Asuming average scenarios, which you will fall in 68% of the time, you'll stand to win 49.2x and lose 49.6x of antes
divide this by your bankroll of 2000, x is around 40.3
Adjusting for Standard deviations, I think you'll last a good 50 or so hands, depending on your luck