Baccarat card counting: Player Bet & Dragon 7

I explain on Periscope how to win at the EZ Baccarat (and the regular mini/midi baccarat Player bet) Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1 counting cards using the JSTAT Count with the side counting of 8's/9's. The JSTAT Count strategy counts the 2-9's as +1 and the 10's and picture cards as -2 (the aces are not counted). An 8 or 9 comes out very 6.5 cards with eight of them in each deck. More 8/9's gone than normal with minus counts give us the card counting edge at Player bets at baccarat and the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet.

At the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet, it is impossible for a 3 card winning banker 7 with 8's,9's,10's, and picture cards. This is why we win with this strategy.

Quote: JSTAT

I explain on Periscope how to win at the EZ Baccarat (and the regular mini/midi baccarat Player bet) Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1 counting cards using the JSTAT Count with the side counting of 8's/9's. The JSTAT Count strategy counts the 2-9's as +1 and the 10's and picture cards as -2 (the aces are not counted). An 8 or 9 comes out very 6.5 cards with eight of them in each deck. More 8/9's gone than normal with minus counts give us the card counting edge at Player bets at baccarat and the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet.

At the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet, it is impossible for a 3 card winning banker 7 with 8's,9's,10's, and picture cards. This is why we win with this strategy.

Why tell anyone?

Quote: JSTAT

I explain on Periscope how to win at the EZ Baccarat (and the regular mini/midi baccarat Player bet) Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1 counting cards using the JSTAT Count with the side counting of 8's/9's. The JSTAT Count strategy counts the 2-9's as +1 and the 10's and picture cards as -2 (the aces are not counted). An 8 or 9 comes out very 6.5 cards with eight of them in each deck. More 8/9's gone than normal with minus counts give us the card counting edge at Player bets at baccarat and the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet.

At the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet, it is impossible for a 3 card winning banker 7 with 8's,9's,10's, and picture cards. This is why we win with this strategy.

Why tell anyone?

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: JSTAT

I explain on Periscope how to win at the EZ Baccarat (and the regular mini/midi baccarat Player bet) Dragon 7 side bet which pays 40-1 counting cards using the JSTAT Count with the side counting of 8's/9's. The JSTAT Count strategy counts the 2-9's as +1 and the 10's and picture cards as -2 (the aces are not counted). An 8 or 9 comes out very 6.5 cards with eight of them in each deck. More 8/9's gone than normal with minus counts give us the card counting edge at Player bets at baccarat and the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet.

At the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet, it is impossible for a 3 card winning banker 7 with 8's,9's,10's, and picture cards. This is why we win with this strategy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zVvK1j7FcG0

Why tell anyone?

I wanted to see if my baccarat card count for the Player Bet and Dragon 7 passes scrutiny with the greatest minds in the casino world here on the Wizard's forum.

Let's see the mathematics to back up these claims.

I thought it was pretty well known that those side bets are countable. But if I recall, it's not all that profitable.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Let's see the mathematics to back up these claims.

For the record, I'm not saying he's right or wrong. Only want to see proof.

The side bet is 10000 percent countable - I did it at a casino for a month straight with no heat until they lowered the max- at 200 max it's very profitable and under 50 it's worthless

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Let's see the mathematics to back up these claims.

Eliot Jacobson (Teliot) did a a card counting analysis of the EZ Baccarat Dragon 7 side bet that was published on the Wizard of Odds site in 2011 https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/dragon-bet/. Using a linear count simulation, Jacobson concluded a shoe depleted of more eights and/or nines than normal provided an advantage for Dragon 7. I upped the ante by including the JSTAT Count (2-9=+1 and 10-K=-2) with a side counting of 8/9's and have been very successful playing in casinos. It only makes sense that a winning three card banker 7 cannot happen with a ten card along with the 8/9's as a third card in this non-linear count.

As an additional bonus, I discovered the JSTAT Count with the side counting (and the lack of) of 8/9's remaining in the shoe with minus counts works very well with Player Bets in conventional baccarat.

You guys (counters of various games) work to hard!

Jstat, is your system based on your intuition or computer simulation? if by computer simulation can you tell us

average number of bets made each shoe
how the computer program decide when to make a bet and the bet size
average player edge
how much average win per shoe
how many shoes/rounds is the simulation

Eliot Jacobson lists all the above on his site apheat.net/2014/10/13/card-counting-the-dragonfortune-7-baccarat-side-bet/

If your system is based only on intuition and real life casino result, then your story is not convincing. There are wildly claimed winning system at any kind of casino games.
The thing about card counting system is: all reputable system can be backed up by computer simulation. If anyone doubts the simulation result, then he can develop his own simulation to verify the inventor's story.

Quote: supergrass

Jstat, is your system based on your intuition or computer simulation? if by computer simulation can you tell us

average number of bets made each shoe
how the computer program decide when to make a bet and the bet size
average player edge
how much average win per shoe
how many shoes/rounds is the simulation

Eliot Jacobson lists all the above on his site apheat.net/2014/10/13/card-counting-the-dragonfortune-7-baccarat-side-bet/

If your system is based only on intuition and real life casino result, then your story is not convincing. There are wildly claimed winning system at any kind of casino games.
The thing about card counting system is: all reputable system can be backed up by computer simulation. If anyone doubts the simulation result, then he can develop his own simulation to verify the inventor's story.

The link you provided for Eliot Jacobson's Dragon 7 article didn't work. Jacobson wrote in the AP Heat link, "The key is that in order for the player to win this wager, the Banker hand has to draw a third card. This requirement trumps everything else. The cards that keep the Banker hand from drawing that third card most often are the 8 and the 9. As these cards are removed from the shoe, the edge moves quickly towards the counter’s favor...Intuitively, a shoe that is rich in the cards 4, 5, 6, 7 and poor in the cards 8, 9 will favor the counter." Jacobson also used computer simulation for the Dragon 7 side bet.

I used Jacobson's premise to enhance my baccarat count and have been very successful playing in real life casinos. A deck particularly poor of 8's/9's and ten value cards diminish the power of the third card rule favoring the Banker side. Because any 8 or 9 and ten card value as third card determine many times the standing Banker action where the Banker takes the most of its advantage. Moreover whenever a deck is poor of 8's,9's and 10's frequently, it means that more small-medium cards are available to catch for Player side as third card. Obviously the (slight) main effect favoring the Player side is due to the second issue, along with the fact the Player bets are paid 1.1 and not 0.95:1

My recent video adds some more baccarat tips https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO0Jf5tdITQ