Baccarat Bank streak Promotion

A UK casino is running a promotion to try and entice 'back' customers from a rival chain.

Starting 24th July through to 28th August, Sunday's only. If you have what is referred to as the button. A button moves clockwise around the table after any Player outcome and while you have the button there is a minimum 5 Banker streak you get paid the following (doesn't matter which side you are betting).

5 Banks in a row = £50
6 Banks in a row = £100
7 Banks in a row = £150
8 Banks in a row = £200
9 Banks in a row = £250
10 Banks in a row = £500

This is 6 deck game and I've seen this establishment produce Player dominated shoes all night, was thinking any time you have the button, if you bet the player side, it could nearly be self funding bet if you didn't win within 4 hands.

Question: do you keep the button until the player wins (is that what you mean by a "player outcome")?
If so, then either I am seriously reading this wrong, or this is an AP, if your bets are 10-10-10-10-25-50-75-100-125-250 when you have the button:

Question: do you keep the button until the player wins (is that what you mean by a "player outcome")?
If so, then either I am seriously reading this wrong, or this is an AP, if your bets are 10-10-10-10-25-50-75-100-125-250 when you have the button:

Streak	Prob	Profit	Adj Profit
0	0.4932120746	10	4.9321207459
1	0.2499539241	0	0
2	0.1266736306	-10	-1.2667363063
3	0.0641966665	-20	-1.2839333294
4	0.0325340954	-15	-0.4880114313
5	0.0164878867	35	0.5770760353
6	0.0083558619	110	0.9191448097
7	0.0042346499	210	0.8892764833
8	0.0021460694	335	0.7189332651
9	0.0010876021	585	0.6362472187
10	0.0011175387	585	0.6537601665

"Streak" is the number of bank wins before a player win; 10 indicates a streak if 10 bank wins, after which you stop
"Prob" is the probability of it happening
"Profit" is how much you make using the 10-10-10-10-25-50-75-100-125-250 progression
"Adj Profit" is probability x profit
The sum of the Adj Profit numbers is 6.2879.

If the minimum bet is more than 10, it is still an AP with the first four bets being anything up to 250, but the smaller the bet, the better.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Question: do you keep the button until the player wins (is that what you mean by a "player outcome")?
If so, then either I am seriously reading this wrong, or this is an AP, if your bets are 10-10-10-10-25-50-75-100-125-250 when you have the button:

That is correct, you keep the button until the Player side wins, then it moves clockwise. This casino is not 27/4, and the tables generally don't get going until 10~10.30pm through to 7am. If somebody gets there early they can play by themselves for an hour or so, in which case they will have to button to themselves.

Table minimum is £5, or if playing by yourself £1 on the Tie paying 9-1 to keep the cards flowing.

Thanks for those figures. Personally I wouldn't use a delayed Martingale as you indicated.

Quote: CyrusV

A UK casino is running a promotion to try and entice 'back' customers from a rival chain.

Cool. Looks like an AP opportunity. Which casino? Grosvenor or Genting? I might give it a stab if it's available to me.

Quote: OnceDear

Cool. Looks like an AP opportunity. Which casino? Grosvenor or Genting? I might give it a stab if it's available to me.

loose lips

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Question: do you keep the button until the player wins (is that what you mean by a "player outcome")?
If so, then either I am seriously reading this wrong, or this is an AP, if your bets are 10-10-10-10-25-50-75-100-125-250 when you have the button:

Perhaps I'm missing something crucial here, but since it's a negative expectation bet and there is no specific minimum bet required to be eligible for the promotion, wouldn't the proper strategy be to simply flat bet the table minimum on the banker side the entire time?

Quote: ThatDonGuy

if your bets are 10-10-10-10-25-50-75-100-125-250 when you have the button:

Streak	Prob	Profit	Adj Profit
0	0.4932120746	10	4.9321207459
1	0.2499539241	0	0
2	0.1266736306	-10	-1.2667363063
3	0.0641966665	-20	-1.2839333294
4	0.0325340954	-15	-0.4880114313
5	0.0164878867	35	0.5770760353
6	0.0083558619	110	0.9191448097
7	0.0042346499	210	0.8892764833
8	0.0021460694	335	0.7189332651
9	0.0010876021	585	0.6362472187
10	0.0011175387	585	0.6537601665

Don,
you might want to check your maths again. I think you have an error in your profit for the streak of 6 thru 10. The easiest to see is the streak of 10 banker wins. In this case you will lose all of your player bets ( a total of 665 in your given sequence) and win the 500 bonus to give a total of -165 not 585 as given in your table.
The play is still positive EV but only about half as good as you table gives. I get an expected profit of about 3.20 per cycle instead of your 6.28. Playing with the numbers I get a slightly better return just flat betting 5-10 per hand. So I don't no if the sequence is worth the effort.

Quote: OnceDear

Cool. Looks like an AP opportunity. Which casino? Grosvenor or Genting? I might give it a stab if it's available to me.

Not the chain that operates the "monthly longest banker streak competition" ;-)

Quote: someone

Don,
you might want to check your maths again.

It's not so much the math that needs checking, as it is the system. I was trying to get to a point where, once you had four bank wins in a row, each subsequent deal was worth a guaranteed amount. The progression should have been 10-10-10-10-25-25-25-25-25-125:

Streak	Prob	Profit	Adj Profit
0	0.493212075	10	4.932120746
1	0.249953924	0	0
2	0.126673631	-10	-1.266736306
3	0.064196666	-20	-1.283933329
4	0.032534095	-15	-0.488011431
5	0.016487887	10	0.164878867
6	0.008355862	35	0.292455167
7	0.00423465	60	0.254078995
8	0.002146069	85	0.182415903
9	0.001087602	210	0.228396437
10	0.001117539	210	0.234683137

The revised total is 3.2504.
However, betting 5 each time results in a total of 3.4176. Looks like another example of "the more you expose to the HA, the more you expect to lose."

Update on this as the promo started last night;

Asked them to open the table 30 mins early so I could play solo, some tourist wandered over for a few bets, other than that had the shoe to myself. I checked with management and they told me any valid bet would do, so I bet the table minimum of £1 on the tie for the entire shoe :-D and hit a Bank 7 streak for £150 early on, as well as 4 Tie bets paying 9-1. 61 hands in total (6 deck game), good start.

Then as more staff arrived they told me after checking the T&C's, I had to bet either a Bank or Player bet, but they will honour the first win. Fine, I flat bet £5 on the Player regardless of any Bank streak length from the 2nd shoe onwards, at the end of the shoe I hit a Bank 10 streak for £500. I was getting through the shoes in approx 15 ~ 20 mins.

Shoe 5, hit a Bank 6 streak for £100, shoe 6 there was a Bank 7 streak and shoe 10 a 6 Bank streak, on both occasions I didn't have the button. No more than 4 people playing all through the night :-D

Finally shoe 12 played solo a Bank 6 streak for another £100, I lost my own stake money as it became excruciating boring just sitting there not betting until the button came around and flat betting Player at the table minimum. All up still a 216% profit, next round in 7 days or should that be nights.

Promotion has now ended, what a cracker it was. Ended up taking £3,585 over 5 Sunday nights, basically viewed as free money.
Always getting in early for them to open the table so I could play solo as long as possible. However a fellow player soon cottoned on and for the most part we ended up splitting any Bank bonus wins 50-50, which dented somewhat what I would have taken.

Dropped £300 whilst dabbling with other bet options, but also picked up a brand new Samsung 40" curved TV in a spin the wheel contest.. Not a bad 5 weeks, if I say so myself.

Many thanks thatdonguy for providing a degree of confidence to attack this, spending many longs hours at the tables, milked to the hilt.

Quote: CyrusV

Update on this as the promo started last night;

Asked them to open the table 30 mins early so I could play solo, some tourist wandered over for a few bets, other than that had the shoe to myself. I checked with management and they told me any valid bet would do, so I bet the table minimum of £1 on the tie for the entire shoe :-D and hit a Bank 7 streak for £150 early on, as well as 4 Tie bets paying 9-1. 61 hands in total (6 deck game), good start.

Then as more staff arrived they told me after checking the T&C's, I had to bet either a Bank or Player bet, but they will honour the first win. Fine, I flat bet £5 on the Player regardless of any Bank streak length from the 2nd shoe onwards, at the end of the shoe I hit a Bank 10 streak for £500. I was getting through the shoes in approx 15 ~ 20 mins.

Shoe 5, hit a Bank 6 streak for £100, shoe 6 there was a Bank 7 streak and shoe 10 a 6 Bank streak, on both occasions I didn't have the button. No more than 4 people playing all through the night :-D

Finally shoe 12 played solo a Bank 6 streak for another £100, I lost my own stake money as it became excruciating boring just sitting there not betting until the button came around and flat betting Player at the table minimum. All up still a 216% profit, next round in 7 days or should that be nights.

For future reference, the $1 tie bet was costing you ~3 times the amount that a $5 banker bet would have the entire time. Tie bet is -14.36%. Also, you should have played the Banker side the entire time, which is better than the Player (as I stated early on in this thread, simply betting the table minimum on the Banker the entire time was the proper way to go).

Anyway, you won, so congratulations on that. But you definitely should do everything you can to minimize the theo you're giving up to the house when playing promotions like this....you cost yourself some money.

Quote: cwazy

For future reference, the $1 tie bet was costing you ~3 times the amount that a $5 banker bet would have the entire time. Tie bet is -14.36%. Also, you should have played the Banker side the entire time, which is better than the Player (as I stated early on in this thread, simply betting the table minimum on the Banker the entire time was the proper way to go).

Anyway, you won, so congratulations on that. But you definitely should do everything you can to minimize the theo you're giving up to the house when playing promotions like this....you cost yourself some money.

Thanks, that is more on paper than in practise. I was only allowed to bet the Tie on the first shoe due to their error, it also paid 9-1. If I recall I hit about 8 in that particular shoe at a fifth of the stake. When others players were at the table, I simply didn't bet unless I had the button, it was insignificant.