Three card poker progressive

I hope you readers can forgive me for last nights unpleasantness, and help me with this question.

Three card poker, 40-30-6-3-1 pair plus pay table, 5-3-1 ante bonus I think. The good part is the progressive jackpot for AKQ of spades is approx. $23,000. AKQ of other suits pays 500 for 1, straight flush 70 for 1, trips 60 for 1, and straight 6 for 1. $10 minimum. My questions: What is the optimal betting strategy? How long, and what bankroll would be required, for a team of 4 to reasonably expect to win the jackpot?

Thanks in advance.

Quote: Headlock

I hope you readers can forgive me for last nights unpleasantness, and help me with this question.

Three card poker, 40-30-6-3-1 pair plus pay table, 5-3-1 ante bonus I think. The good part is the progressive jackpot for AKQ of spades is approx. $23,000. AKQ of other suits pays 500 for 1, straight flush 70 for 1, trips 60 for 1, and straight 6 for 1. $10 minimum. My questions: What is the optimal betting strategy? How long, and what bankroll would be required, for a team of 4 to reasonably expect to win the jackpot?

Thanks in advance.

I did some of the math a while ago here. The break even point is $10,080 less $175 for each other player. But you would also have to bet on either the pair+ or the ante/play, so the break even point is higher.

Thanks miplet. I have great respect for your math skills. Usually way over my head, but I do understand your 3CP progressive break-even calculation. However, I don't know how to apply that break-even figure to answer my question. I say question, because I am assuming the optimal betting strategy is to play only the $10 ante. My remaining question is approximately how long and what bankroll is required?

The AKQ of spades should occur once in 22,100 hands. I can expect to win $12,020 on the other progressive payouts (or $22,100 minus the break even target of $10,080). From the Wizard of Odds analysis of three card poker, the house edge on the 5-4-1 ante bonus table is 3.37%. So, the house edge take on 22,100 $10 ante bets would be $7,448, and my loss on the 22,100 $1 progressive bets would be $10,080. Perfect distribution of the results would indicate approx. $18,500 loss or bankroll requirements. What I don't know how to figure is the standard deviation. And are there different confidence levels based on plus or minus 1, 2, or 3 standard deviations?

Does anyone have a guess as to how many hands per hour might be played with 4 players at the table?

I won't pretend to be able to do this math...

I've played a fair bit of 3 card poker progressive when the jackpot was in an advantage state. Here (MN) it's almost impossible to get one person onto the table when the jackpot gets about $20k. Short of bribery, how are you going to get 4 players to the table? Or, I guess more to the point...got room for a 5th?