CharmedQuark
CharmedQuark
Joined: Apr 28, 2015
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September 30th, 2015 at 8:36:04 AM permalink
As I understand UTH Basic Strategy, it is determined by long term EV computational analysis. The analysis indicates the player is to bet 69 hands 4X pre-flop. I accept that and play them without hesitation. But I’m wondering if I’m not aggressive enough preflop.

Considering UTH is initially a game of two players in a heads up contest at even footing when dealt their hole cards (two random cards vs two random cards), would it make sense to use net win advantage, i.e. your win % is greater than your loss % to decide on whether to bet 4X or not? The decision should be based on the likelihood of being in a win position. If so, the player should make the bet. If your chances to win more than you lose, it’s a pretty good position and if you have a ‘do not lose’ position, not bad either.

Looking for the resources available for analysis, I found the Texas Holdem two player heads up pre-flop tables at CANIWIN for all 169 starting hands. The tables include a win % and tie % for each hand. So I thought about combining the win % plus tie % to find the hands that statistically ‘do not lose’. I’m sure using ties is a bit wonky (they work both ways), but it made sense to me that if I win or tie, I do not lose.

There are 100 hands that fit this ‘do not lose’ situation, i.e. statistically the player is in a ‘do not lose’ position 50% or more of the time with these hands. That’s over 59% of the hands that could be dealt. But, some of these hands are so marginal, I would be very nervous if not terrified of betting them 4X just like a most players are too timid to bet the BS.

The 69 BS hands are a statistical 51%+ to win. So I decided to look at the 53% ‘do not lose’ positions that have a 2%+ advantage when taking the difference between win% and lose%. Yes, very arbitrary, but I had to draw a line somewhere that made some sense to me. There are 13 of these hands (see below) in addition to the 69 BS hands. I figured maybe I could add these hands to the 69 BS hands to bet 4X. Too aggressive? Probably.

I’m just curious if these hands are worthy of a 4X bet pre-flop (if your heart and bankroll can take it) or should I consider the above a flawed concept for UTH.

Here are the 13 hands - K3o, K4o, Q6o, Q7o, Q3s, Q4s, Q5s, J8o, J9o, J7s, T9o, T8s, and T9s.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit 
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September 30th, 2015 at 11:10:33 AM permalink
best strategy has been determined for the 4x bet already

wizardofodds.com for example

regarding having enough heart, IMO you do trust the standing strategy especially on the 4x bet, since I believe the odds are in your favor on those bets ... in any case, lowering the bet generally has been said to jack up the HE

sometimes there is a reasonable decision in some game to introduce more variance at the expense of HE. In UTH you might go with 4x on 'any King', for example. However, IMO UTH has very high variance already and the best idea is to stick with the known strategy as close as possible
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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September 30th, 2015 at 3:10:11 PM permalink
Quote: CharmedQuark

As I understand UTH Basic Strategy, it is determined by long term EV computational analysis. The analysis indicates the player is to bet 69 hands 4X pre-flop. I accept that and play them without hesitation. But I’m wondering if I’m not aggressive enough preflop.

Considering UTH is initially a game of two players in a heads up contest at even footing when dealt their hole cards (two random cards vs two random cards), would it make sense to use net win advantage, i.e. your win % is greater than your loss % to decide on whether to bet 4X or not? The decision should be based on the likelihood of being in a win position. If so, the player should make the bet. If your chances to win more than you lose, it’s a pretty good position and if you have a ‘do not lose’ position, not bad either.

Looking for the resources available for analysis, I found the Texas Holdem two player heads up pre-flop tables at CANIWIN for all 169 starting hands. The tables include a win % and tie % for each hand. So I thought about combining the win % plus tie % to find the hands that statistically ‘do not lose’. I’m sure using ties is a bit wonky (they work both ways), but it made sense to me that if I win or tie, I do not lose.

There are 100 hands that fit this ‘do not lose’ situation, i.e. statistically the player is in a ‘do not lose’ position 50% or more of the time with these hands. That’s over 59% of the hands that could be dealt. But, some of these hands are so marginal, I would be very nervous if not terrified of betting them 4X just like a most players are too timid to bet the BS.


The 69 BS hands are a statistical 51%+ to win. So I decided to look at the 53% ‘do not lose’ positions that have a 2%+ advantage when taking the difference between win% and lose%. Yes, very arbitrary, but I had to draw a line somewhere that made some sense to me. There are 13 of these hands (see below) in addition to the 69 BS hands. I figured maybe I could add these hands to the 69 BS hands to bet 4X. Too aggressive? Probably.

I’m just curious if these hands are worthy of a 4X bet pre-flop (if your heart and bankroll can take it) or should I consider the above a flawed concept for UTH.

Here are the 13 hands - K3o, K4o, Q6o, Q7o, Q3s, Q4s, Q5s, J8o, J9o, J7s, T9o, T8s, and T9s.




I think you have to consider a couple things in your analysis. When you win with less than a straight, you're only winning 5/6 of your bet. When you win with less than a straight, and the dealer doesn't qualify, you're only winning 4/6 of your bet. However, when you lose, you lose 6/6 of your bet, when the dealer qualifies, and 5/6 of your bet when the dealer doesn't qualify but still beats you. And you only get a straight or better about 8% of the time if I recall correctly, so over 90% of the time, you're subject to a short payout.

So, it's not an equal transaction, to win or lose. That makes it -EV to play 50% or marginal hands (the 31 or so you're considering in addition to the 69 recommended under optimal strategy, or even the 13 extra you list). I would recommend against broadening your range this much, anyway; I think it would be like a slow leak in a tire. You'd get more action, but find yourself losing your BR faster than you expect, because they underpay your wins compared to your losses.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Commish
Commish
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October 1st, 2015 at 10:57:29 AM permalink
Sorry beach bums but I do not agree with your explanation. The discussion here is whether to bet 4x or not and has nothing to do with the other wagers being paid or not. That being said I believe that the original question of wagering 4x is to not bet on these because the information revealed on the flop and subsequent is significant to make it a eventual wager or not. Without additional cards these would probably be a loser.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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October 1st, 2015 at 2:08:38 PM permalink
Quote: Commish

Sorry beach bums but I do not agree with your explanation. The discussion here is whether to bet 4x or not and has nothing to do with the other wagers being paid or not. That being said I believe that the original question of wagering 4x is to not bet on these because the information revealed on the flop and subsequent is significant to make it a eventual wager or not. Without additional cards these would probably be a loser.



You're welcome to disagree. My point is that, without the Blind bet, the game is +EV. That's its purpose; to balance out the ante/play bets, where it doesn't get paid on a simple win, so hands that might be worth pursuing in a player-banked THE game become undesirable as pre-flop bets. You have to look at what effect the Blind bet has on the game. It's rare that any of the marginal hands will generate a Blind bet win, though certainly they can, but not at a high enough %age to justify playing them as part of an overall strategy. Maybe there could be an index developed that, if you "happen" to see a dealer's HC or a neighbor or two's hands, and those hands contain certain cards related to yours, you might be more aggressive with your 4x bets. Otherwise, it's a -EV strategy. All IMHO.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
98Clubs
98Clubs
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October 1st, 2015 at 9:54:59 PM permalink
The only hands worth aggressive play (still incorrect 'by the book') are the K2 K3 K4 off-suits, 10-9 suited and maybe J-9 off-suit. IMHO after these 5 plays lotsa $$$ get swirled down the porcelain funnel.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
djatc
djatc
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October 1st, 2015 at 10:59:10 PM permalink
I've seen people throw away pairs on the river.... the casino makes tons of money on this game.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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October 2nd, 2015 at 1:39:42 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

You're welcome to disagree. My point is that, without the Blind bet, the game is +EV. That's its purpose; to balance out the ante/play bets, where it doesn't get paid on a simple win, so hands that might be worth pursuing in a player-banked THE game become undesirable as pre-flop bets. You have to look at what effect the Blind bet has on the game. It's rare that any of the marginal hands will generate a Blind bet win, though certainly they can, but not at a high enough %age to justify playing them as part of an overall strategy. Maybe there could be an index developed that, if you "happen" to see a dealer's HC or a neighbor or two's hands, and those hands contain certain cards related to yours, you might be more aggressive with your 4x bets. Otherwise, it's a -EV strategy. All IMHO.


Winning or losing on the blind has nothing to do with whether you 4× or not.The reason you don't 4x some hands is because you have higher ev by waiting for the flop.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
RS
RS
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October 2nd, 2015 at 1:56:59 AM permalink
You bet 4x pre-flop because it's better than betting 2x after the flop.

You must take into account the blind. Strategies are made going both ways: From the beginning going forwards and from the end going backwards. Your strategy after the river (1x or fold) definitely takes into account the blind bet. By throwing away your hand, you also throw away your blind bet. But lots of the strategy is simply hoping for a push so you do not lose your ante and blind. If it makes sense to 1x at the end, then the analysis goes backwards to see if it would have been smart to bet 2x pre-river. If that would have made sense, then of course, the analysis goes back to see if betting 4x pre-flop is the best idea or not.


For example, not entirely related to UTH but it's got the same concept. If you look up BJ hole-carding strategies, you'll see something interesting. If the dealer has a hard 17 and the player has an 11, can you guess the proper strategy? Well let's think about it for a second. If you catch a 7, 8, 9, T, J, Q, K you win, 6 is a push, A-5 is a loss. That's 7 ways to win, 1 way to push, and 5 ways to lose. The EV is +2/13 which is about 15% (of your original + doubled) wager. That sounds pretty good. But guess what -- the proper strategy is actually to HIT! Yes, you hit 11vs17. YOU DO NOT DOUBLE!! The reason is because by doubling, you limit yourself to only one card. But instead, by hitting, you can now take multiple cards [if desired]. So if you catch an A-5, you can keep hitting.


So, just because you have an advantage if you bet more right now, does not make it the best play.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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October 2nd, 2015 at 6:46:37 AM permalink
Well yeah it's obvious that the 1× or fold decision takes into account the blind bet. But since it's a forced bet it makes no difference whether you 4×2x or 1× the result on the blind will be the same.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.

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