CharmedQuark
CharmedQuark
Joined: Apr 28, 2015
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September 9th, 2015 at 3:02:41 PM permalink
When was the last time you caught a Royal? Straight Flush? Quads?

Iíve been playing UTH for just over 10 months. I play 2-3 times a week and try to grind out 3-4 hours per session. So about 90-130 hands per session. So Iím in for the short term (whatever that is) and in this time I have never seen a Royal dealt, only one Straight Flush (yes - it was to the dealer), and a few Quads (none to me). Given the probabilities on catching one of these hands, my expectation of getting one is nil. Yeah, they are in the deck, but I donít count on having one dealt to my seat.

So this got me to thinking about the -2.185% return or house edge. This number is derived from a few gazillion trials Ė the long term. But in reality, is 2.185% accurate when there is extremely little or no likelihood of me ever catching one of the big hands? I doubt that I will ever play enough hands for those probabilities to kick in for me in my short term sessions. It will probably take years.

I was looking at the Wizís outcome and return table for UTH. This table displays and calculates the 2.185% return taking into account all 52 hand outcomes assuming optimal strategy. I wondered, trying to be somewhat logical and rational, what happens to the 2.185% return if I factored out the returns for the Royal, Straight Flush and Quad hands? Yes, again I know these hands are in the deck, but are improbable to be dealt to me. I consider them irrelevant in the overall scheme of things and to have no payout value for purposes of calculating the house edge Ė for me they represent a push. Doing this, I got a new return total of -0.072847 or a 7.2847% house edge. WOW!! This is for me the realistic house edge on all hands I play until I hit that big hand and between hitting that big hand and the next time I hit a big hand (slim to none chance and these big hands arenít so big considering the blind payouts).

Geesh!! 7.2847% House edge - Totally unacceptable! I might be done playing UTH.

This is probably poor logic and bad math or both to the smart posters here. Iím assuming something is wrong here, so tell me what it is. Thanks in advance
Commish
Commish
Joined: Jan 5, 2013
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September 9th, 2015 at 8:06:33 PM permalink
The odds of getting quads is only 600-1 and a straight flush is 3600-1. You have been unlucky not to cash in on these. It will happen. I play this game for a living and have had 47 straight flushes dealt to me. I have seen 12 royal flushes but none of them were mine. There are only 6 spots at the table and they are not always full. Nonetheless, I am encouraged by the fact that I have won money for 5 straight years without the benefit of a royal. On the other hand, maybe I have received more than my share of str flushes. Hang in there, they will come.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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September 9th, 2015 at 8:13:58 PM permalink
Quote: Commish

The odds of getting quads is only 600-1 and a straight flush is 3600-1... I play this game for a living and have had 47 straight flushes dealt to me...


You're saying you've played about 170,000 hands? At about 25 HPH, that's about 6800 hours of play.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Dieter
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Dieter
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September 9th, 2015 at 8:27:05 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You're saying you've played about 170,000 hands? At about 25 HPH, that's about 6800 hours of play.



Or about 27 hours a week, over 5 years.

Not a terrible amount of time to "work".
May the cards fall in your favor.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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September 9th, 2015 at 8:37:26 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Or about 27 hours a week, over 5 years.

Not a terrible amount of time to "work".


And then playing it "professionally". I want to know his edge on the game.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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September 9th, 2015 at 9:00:59 PM permalink
I would agree with taking out the big hands for a reasonable estimate of a short-term return. This is true of any game where some of the return is in long-shots, like video poker.

Let's also remember that the 2.185% is based on the Ante only.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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September 9th, 2015 at 9:49:35 PM permalink
Quote: CharmedQuark

When was the last time you caught a Royal? Straight Flush? Quads?

Iíve been playing UTH for just over 10 months. I play 2-3 times a week and try to grind out 3-4 hours per session. So about 90-130 hands per session. So Iím in for the short term (whatever that is) and in this time I have never seen a Royal dealt, only one Straight Flush (yes - it was to the dealer), and a few Quads (none to me). Given the probabilities on catching one of these hands, my expectation of getting one is nil. Yeah, they are in the deck, but I donít count on having one dealt to my seat.

So this got me to thinking about the -2.185% return or house edge. This number is derived from a few gazillion trials Ė the long term. But in reality, is 2.185% accurate when there is extremely little or no likelihood of me ever catching one of the big hands? I doubt that I will ever play enough hands for those probabilities to kick in for me in my short term sessions. It will probably take years.

I was looking at the Wizís outcome and return table for UTH. This table displays and calculates the 2.185% return taking into account all 52 hand outcomes assuming optimal strategy. I wondered, trying to be somewhat logical and rational, what happens to the 2.185% return if I factored out the returns for the Royal, Straight Flush and Quad hands? Yes, again I know these hands are in the deck, but are improbable to be dealt to me. I consider them irrelevant in the overall scheme of things and to have no payout value for purposes of calculating the house edge Ė for me they represent a push. Doing this, I got a new return total of -0.072847 or a 7.2847% house edge. WOW!! This is for me the realistic house edge on all hands I play until I hit that big hand and between hitting that big hand and the next time I hit a big hand (slim to none chance and these big hands arenít so big considering the blind payouts).

Geesh!! 7.2847% House edge - Totally unacceptable! I might be done playing UTH.

This is probably poor logic and bad math or both to the smart posters here. Iím assuming something is wrong here, so tell me what it is. Thanks in advance



I followed your tracks and I don't disagree with your results as far as you went.

I do think there's a lot to be considered in the element of risk discussion on the UTH page, though. HE was developed to display comparative info on games that didn't have a decision point in most/all cases; you bet (ante'd), there was a result: on craps, roulette, baccarat, and most blackjack. BJ HE's are modified by probability of split/dbl hands, as well as other rule variations, but all based on the ante.

UTH HE is calculated based on the ante as well for standardization, but you can't play for just the ante. You must bet the blind, and to stay in the hand also bet the play at some level. The Wizard lists the average bet amount using optimal strategy at 4.152252x the ante, which I think you must consider when figuring your level of risk on this game. Using that amount, the EOR (corrected HE) is 1.754397% even if discounting ever getting the big 3 hands.

So, whether you find value in the game at that level is entirely up to you. But I think it's not unreasonable compared to nearly every other carnival game, only a little worse than the best craps bets, close to playing 6:5 BJ. Certainly better than roulette.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
offTopic
offTopic
Joined: Dec 6, 2013
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September 9th, 2015 at 9:57:10 PM permalink
Funny thing for me is, I play a fair amount of live poker and in the time that I've been playing UTH, I've gotten 3 royals...all while playing hold'em in the poker room. First one got me a $500 bonus, second a $300 bonus + a cool jacket (not) and the third $300 and no jacket (because I declined it). Oh well...life it about timing.
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
Joined: Aug 5, 2013
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September 9th, 2015 at 11:07:38 PM permalink
Quote: Commish

The odds of getting quads is only 600-1 and a straight flush is 3600-1. You have been unlucky not to cash in on these. It will happen. I play this game for a living and have had 47 straight flushes dealt to me. I have seen 12 royal flushes but none of them were mine. There are only 6 spots at the table and they are not always full. Nonetheless, I am encouraged by the fact that I have won money for 5 straight years without the benefit of a royal. On the other hand, maybe I have received more than my share of str flushes. Hang in there, they will come.



"you play this game for a living" could you expand on that for us????
get second you pig
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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September 10th, 2015 at 2:02:23 AM permalink
getting 4oak or better once in a while seems pretty critical in this game when you look at payoffs

you can't help but notice the rarity of it. Well, you get 7 cards only, never more- no discard. That matters.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder

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