Should I be increasing my odds bet instead of placing the 6 & 8?
Are there other bets I could be making (within the constraints of my bankroll) that would help increase my chances of winning?
Is there anything I can do to offset the $22 loss I take when a 7 gets thrown?
Any thoughts or advice would be welcome.
Your betting pattern is fine, but I would be a bit more wary of the place bets. Avoiding the ComeBet seems strange.. after all, a ComeBet is actually a virtual PassLine Bet and you are already making those. So perhaps you are doing this to extend your time at table but fatigue and alcohol consumption would also be factors.
Certainly increasing the odds might be considered since its always preferable to have as much of your money at a truly neutral bet as possible. I personally do enjoy placing the six and eight myself, but I think the mathematical purists amongst us would agree that it would be better to use that money for an odds bet, though the difference is not all that great.
Field bets are about 5.36 percent against you and I see no particular reason to make them at all, except perhaps as part of your tipping regimen.
Offset a loss? You mean... Hedge?? Sure, there are lots of ways, but why would you ever want to do it. You make your bet and you take your chances. Why hedge so as to lose less and also win less? Now if you want to move over to the Dark Side and start enjoying those seven-outs, you would not be able to do much due to the higher capital required for odds bets, but that is at least one way to escape that dreaded seven.
or maybe something like lay $18 on the 6 or 8, lay $24 on the 5 or 9, lay $30 on the 4 or T if that makes you feel more comfortable.
Quote: Toes14Here's the situation: I'm not a newbie to craps, but I don't have tons of experience either. I also don't have a large bankroll to play with. I usually only have $150-200 available. When I play at Harrah's or Ameristar, it's on a $5 table with typical 3-4-5x odds. I generally throw $5 on the pass line, $5 odds, and then place the 6 & 8 for $6 each. I ignore come bets and any bets in the middle of the table since I'm not familiar/comfortable with them. Once in a while I'll make a $5 field bet.
Should I be increasing my odds bet instead of placing the 6 & 8?
Are there other bets I could be making (within the constraints of my bankroll) that would help increase my chances of winning?
Is there anything I can do to offset the $22 loss I take when a 7 gets thrown?
Any thoughts or advice would be welcome.
I'd recommend making come bets. Its not technically hedging, but it sort of is on the 'come-out', since a 7 will win you $5 on your Come bet, but lose your original PL bet. In fact, you may want to forget the place bets and just make PL and Come bets only - with whatever odds your bankroll can support for both. This is typically how I play.
As far as the old debate about the fact that free odds do not change the Expected Value, my current thinking is that if you have set a limit for loss, and a point to cash out when winning, that it *does* mean the changing House Edge is valid as strategy. The increase in variance will mean it's more likely that you will reach one point or the other more quickly, so if you don't like that idea or can't stick to limits, then go back to your old pattern. All this is IMO.
Quote: odiousgambitthere'd be not much difference between place bets and come bets if you don't do the free odds on the come bets. If you are not familiar with the come bet too much, don't worry about it, the dealer places these and the free odds for you same as place bets.
As far as the old debate about the fact that free odds do not change the Expected Value, my current thinking is that if you have set a limit for loss, and a point to cash out when winning, that it *does* mean the changing House Edge is valid as strategy. The increase in variance will mean it's more likely that you will reach one point or the other more quickly, so if you don't like that idea or can't stick to limits, then go back to your old pattern. All this is IMO.
I don't know for sure, but I'd estimated that PL + 2 Come bets would be slightly less variance than a PL + Place 6/8. Reason being that you're 2 come bets somewhate hedge against a 7 (this is assuming no odds). PL + Come bets is a recommnded strategy by the Wizard (with max odds), so I guess it doesn't violate the "Don't Hedge Bets" commandment.
To answer the OP's comment maybe bit better than I did ealier. When I have played with a small bankroll, and just wanted to play for a while while lowering my risk of busting out I would play PL, followed up by come bets (max 2 come bets). I would only back up PL or Come bets with odds when the associated points was a 6 or 8. Obviously this isn't ideal strategy to minimized expected loss, but it generally will allow you to play for a while.
Quote: ruascottI don't know for sure, but I'd estimated that PL + 2 Come bets would be slightly less variance than a PL + Place 6/8. Reason being that you're 2 come bets somewhate hedge against a 7 (this is assuming no odds). PL + Come bets is a recommnded strategy by the Wizard (with max odds), so I guess it doesn't violate the "Don't Hedge Bets" commandment.
Turns out the hedge factor is extremely small. In order to compare these, you must specify conditions better. On the come bets, are you taking odds and, if so, what multiple. On the place bets, do you replace losing bets?
Quote: ruascottTo answer the OP's comment maybe bit better than I did ealier. When I have played with a small bankroll, and just wanted to play for a while while lowering my risk of busting out I would play PL, followed up by come bets (max 2 come bets). I would only back up PL or Come bets with odds when the associated points was a 6 or 8. Obviously this isn't ideal strategy to minimized expected loss, but it generally will allow you to play for a while.
Well, if you want to play for a while, the best way to do that is play the pass line exclusively, no come bets; that minimizes variance and expected loss. To add a bit of variance without expected loss, take single odds on 6/8. The standard deviation on 6/8 odds is 1.095 times the bet amount; for 5/9 it's 1.225 and for 4/10 it's 1.414. When you add a come bet, you add less variance, but also add expected loss.
On occasions when I've played "short", I've played pass line then "financed" odds bets with winnings.
Cheers,
Alan Shank