teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
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August 20th, 2015 at 1:58:35 PM permalink
CQ, good luck with your play. I will say that UTH is a very rewarding game to master. Yes, you can become a lifetime winner at this game. The house edge is so small that it doesn't take much to buck. Similar to Blackjack.

Quote: JohnnyComet

I'm not a math guy, but I understand the term. What is it about this particular game that makes it volatile as compared to say, Blackjack or VP?

It's not more volatile than blackjack. But you're betting on average four units at a time. So you'll see big swings. A $5 game of UTH plays like a $20 game of blackjack when played optimally.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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August 20th, 2015 at 2:13:52 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

Yes, you lose less by raising than you do by checking. It's definitely a "crying call" (raise). That said, it is so marginal that if you can look over at one other players cards and see that they don't have one of your outs, it's a plus E.V. bet for you.



I think you mean if they *do* have one of the outs? At least the usual thing is to count the dealer's outs, and if a player has one of the cards, the dealer can't

Quote: JohnnyComet

I'm not a math guy, but I understand the term. What is it about this particular game that makes it volatile as compared to say, Blackjack or VP?



I am going to keep saying that BJ is not a volatile game until somebody finally believes me LOL. If you don't agree, I'm sorry, but it's right there in the Wizard's stuff - typically an SD of about 1.15 for BJ, which is pretty low. It's the bet spreads that cause the variance.

http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
JohnnyComet
JohnnyComet
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
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August 20th, 2015 at 2:32:43 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit



I am going to keep saying that BJ is not a volatile game until somebody finally believes me LOL. If you don't agree, I'm sorry, but it's right there in the Wizard's stuff - typically an SD of about 1.15 for BJ, which is pretty low. It's the bet spreads that cause the variance.

http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/



Not a question of agreeing or not, I just have no idea. :)

Can you elaborate on how the bet spreads affect volatility (for the lay people like myself) ?
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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August 20th, 2015 at 4:24:15 PM permalink
People say BJ is volatile when they really mean card counting is volatile. But even then, it's volatile compared to their min bet or their EV....it is not volatile compared to their max bet.


UTH is volatile because of the blind bet -- you're making this bet that usually pushes or loses, and the rare event that it pays, it's usually pretty low pay. But ever so occasionally, it pays huge. But the real problem is because of the 4x bets. You're putting up a bunch of money just because it's slightly not-as-bad-as betting less.
djatc
djatc
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August 21st, 2015 at 12:28:39 AM permalink
I am interested in finding out what casinos rate UTH as, seeing as many players play badly. Making a 4x or 2x bet kinda sucks if you think of it as gambling, but it's great for us people who can appreciate +EV situations.

I hate the "put more money out there for less -EV" situations like 88 vs A but I suppose you can choose to surrender or play the hand out and take the less volatile EV option if you are not counting and playing for fun. I wonder if the UTH hold will go up if they offer a surrender option for half your bet. I truly believe offering more options to make bad choices will make the casinos more money.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
CharmedQuark
CharmedQuark
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August 21st, 2015 at 9:00:00 AM permalink
Back on topic – I don’t know if this is meaningful or even accurate. I’m just manipulating numbers. (Again, playing with E Jacobson’s data) I’m sure this has been done before. I tried to calculate the EV differences between the 69 hand 4x strategy and the 64 hand 4x strategy:

69 hand 4x Raise EV total=55.1373

69 hand 4x Check EV total=29.3312

69 hand 4x Raise EV less Check EV=25.8061

69 hand 4x Bet vs Check % (25.8061/29.3312)=87.9817%

Raise EV relative to 69 hands played=3804.4756 (Comparison only)

64 hand 4x Raise EV total=55.4257

64 hand 4x Check EV total=29.7859

64 hand 4x Raise EV less Check EV=25.6398

64 hand 4x Bet vs Check % (25.6398/29.7859)=86.0803%

Raise EV relative to 64 hands played=3547.2443 (Comparison only)

Bet vs Check (87.9817 less 86.0803) =+1.9014%

My conclusion - Expect to win 1.9014% more money playing the 69 hand 4x strategy vs playing the 64 hand 4x strategy.
CharmedQuark
CharmedQuark
Joined: Apr 28, 2015
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August 21st, 2015 at 9:07:41 AM permalink
RS - I'm not sure the blind bet causes any volatility. It just gives the house a large advantage, 31% I think - it's the house's bet and I think it's similar to the 'rake' in the poker room.

I believe the volatility comes from the 4.9+ standard deviation for the game. That's a large number - for me it's close to being astronomical in gambling terms.

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