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Quote: MissEye

...They help us notice dealers who need a little instruction.

Quote: charliepatrick

It looks very risky, this is the result of running 10,000 shoes.
Runs : 413
Went Bust : 75 times
Average take out = $477,261.34.

Quote: teliot

Another point here. According to my sims, if the Tie bet pays 9-to-1 (who knows?), then you are better off making Tie bets instead of Banker bets (although the RoR goes up).

Quote: ssho88

Take up an offer will cost you 60K, we are planning to take up the offer for 20 times ONLY. Theoretically, if you have BR= 60k * 20 = 1200k, you will not going to bust after 20 no of purchases. With BR=450k, what is ROR ? It's similar to trip risk, not long term risk. Am I missing something ?

Quote: ssho88

We have played for 16 times, 4 more to go ! Results ? Slightly lower than the expected value. :=)

Quote: teliot

You are too funny! Honestly, I suspected you must already be there playing, even when you first posted. Right?

Quote: ssho88

We started 8 days ago. It will end soon. Sri Lanka ?

Quote: Boz

and some to advise them of the errors of their ways ( for a price of course)

Quote: teliot

I am not charging nor looking for $$$ here, someone else you know? Or is this more unfounded speculation about me, the type that goes on and on ...

Quote: Boz

I missed where I mentioned your name, something I missed?

Quote: teliot

Why stop at 20? Too much cash to carry out of the country? Worried about being detained at the border if you don't give a large enough bribe?

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/TravelerInterview.htm

Quote: teliot

Better get it while it's hot!

http://apheat.net/2015/06/24/a-baccarat-promotion-designed-for-advantage-players/

Quote: teliot

Ss, I didn't answer or even consider that question. Good luck.

Quote: teliot

Then who is trying to find the casino "as we speak" to advise them of their errors, for a price? You really think there is a person on the planet doing that? I am the only person on the planet I know who is seeking to advise them (whoever they are) of their error. You must really know some people.

"Hey you guys, you over there in that casino, you made an error with one of your promotions, look here, I can prove it! Just pay me some $$$ and I'll tell you."

Quote: teliot

Why stop at 20? Too much cash to carry out of the country? Worried about being detained at the border if you don't give a large enough bribe?

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/TravelerInterview.htm

Quote: kman

Eliot's constant self-love about intellectual pursuits and education is my problem.

Quote: kman

I believe there's one where he rambles on about Newton and compares his work to being in the same vein as Newton's HAH.

Quote: Hole-Carding, 101

Isaac Newton’s first law of motion is that an object in motion stays in motion until an external force acts on it. In other words, unless the dealer consciously stops the upward motion of his hand, his hole-card may be exposed.

Quote: The Not-So-Ideal iDEAL Shuffler

According to Newton’s First Law, the cards will continue up until the dealer acts to change the direction of his motion.

Quote: Boz

Well someone tipped Revel off about potential VP issues with the "You can't lose" promo and there was plenty of speculation about it on here and I don't think your name came up.

Quote: teliot

Point made and granted. I was thinking more about table games in reference to your question, though I admit to forgetting this case and know the person you are referring to (he has very little table games knowledge). Do you have another example, w/r/t table games? Someone you know who could actually take what ssho88 said and try and do what you claimed? It appeared from how you wrote your claim that you know several such people. You said "some" and that usually means more than one.

Quote: Boz

My point was that it is best to keep your mouth shut unless you want to risk the end of an opportunity you have found because it is going to be attacked on both fronts, other AP players and Casino Advisors.

Quote: supergrass

Each buy in has EV of 20k and the OP said they plan to play 20 buy ins. For a ~400k potential profit I think very easy to hire an additional programmer, or 5 programmers to double check simulation result. Instead of asking for "free" advice on a public board.

I suspect the casino is in seoul.

Quote: ssho88

Then you should send a team there before they withdraw the offer.

Quote: teliot

Ssho88, do you know 5 other programmers (not me) that you could pay to do this for you and double-check your team's results? Another way of asking this: about how many competent computer programmers who can do advantage play analysis do you know on the AP side?

Quote: teliot

I almost agree. In the case of ssho88, I suspect he asked his question because his team was well below EV and he wanted a double-check of their internal results. His question about RoR made me think that they were quite a bit below EV, possibly even in danger of losing their entire bankroll. So, there may have been some justification for him to ask his questions here. He asked his question during the middle of his team's play. However, some other AP team might now look for this promotion and burn it out. Likewise, the targeted casino may learn directly from reading here (or on my blog) or have some other casino contact them, given this public exposure. So, in any event, what ssho88 did was not in his best interest if he was interested in prolonging the opportunity beyond his team's stay. It looks like his team's strategy was "burn and run."

Quote: teliot

...do you know 5 other programmers (not me)...

Quote: charliepatrick

I agree it takes a lot of skill to develop some of the software needed to come up with some of the answers, including others on this forum. Unless one has already done it, the time delay from scratch would be weeks (and that assumes the programmer understands statistics, some of the measures needed) and includes developing a way to prove your random number generator and shuffling/dealing program work.
Admittedly once one has developed
(a) A random number generator
(b) A shuffling and dealing program
(c) Algorithms for playing various games (in this case something to determine Player and Banker rules)
(d) An understanding of the results needed
(e) Methods to collate results (this is probably the easiest)
It's reasonably easy, but still takes some time.

Also, unless you're asking two independent programmers, one would really want to develop two different ways to test the results. Typically for a new game, this might be infinite deck analysis (to get a rough idea) before trying a finite deck one.

Quote: Mission146

Brilliant!!!

There's another excellent perspective that plays into my Microeconomics point:

Let us consider a world where there are no beatable promotions, beatable table games and probably to a lesser extent, beatable slots. I believe that Teliot may well go back to being a professor in such a world. I also think that, with no AP's to speak of, there are likely going to be fewer jobs in surveillance, as well. Also, if there are no AP's, and if we assume that many AP's would not frequent casinos if there is nothing to AP, then there are less people in the casino which might create less of a need for cocktail waitresses, slot attendants and the like.

Let's take it a step further and we'll also eliminate cheaters and thieves, who have nothing to do with AP, but there are casino positions that exist to combat them. At this point, you're going to have, what, maybe one person whose job it is to watch the Tables on the camera just for honest-to-goodness payout mistakes? I'm not saying that thieves and cheaters are necessarily an Economic positive, but on the other hand, employing the people that have to deal with thieves and cheaters do result in such people getting checks and buying Base Goods.

Also, without all of the above people, if one owned a casino, one would likely not seek out the most advanced surveillance equipment because a simple setup would likely be sufficient if all one is really watching for is legitimate dealer mistakes.

Thus, it could be argued that, in spite of Marketing people whose heads may roll (and will likely be replaced) that Advantage Players create jobs in casinos simply by attempting to win money at the casino. It is also arguable that cheaters and thieves create jobs because someone has to be employed to try to stop them from doing what they are doing.

Quote: ssho88

We never believe in prolonging opportunity, our strategy is burn/hit and run. If we can find it and beat it, others will be able to do the same,there are more smart APs than you can imagine.

Quote: bigfoot66

This post shows everything that is wrong with Keynesianism. Why the love affair with jobs for their own sake? Jobs suck! wouldn't we prefer a world where we could have the same standard of living but no jobs? The world would be a better place without AP's, cheats, etc. Instead of spending time doing these activities, people could either engage in other productive activities OR even engage in leisure without decreasing the standard of living. If James Grosjean used his incredible intellect towards something productive like running a company instead of analyzing card games the world would be a richer place. James Grosjean spending 60 hours a week sitting at a blackjack table does not make the world a better place.

Quote: Mission146

It has nothing to do with jobs in and of themselves, it has to do with money moving and the consumption of Base Goods. Of course, jobs are currently the primary means by which money moves and people buy base goods. Theoretically, maybe you could have a world where only a minimum amount of people have to have jobs, but that does nothing to defeat Keynesianism, because that's not the court where we're playing ball.

In terms of societal utility, I suppose there are, "Better," things that someone with a mind such as Grosjean's could be doing. However, in terms of Grosjean's personal utility, given your position that Grosjean could do just about anything, and making the assumption that Grosjean knows that, leads me to believe that Grosjean is doing what he most wants to be doing.

Quote: AceTwo

I do not understand why you advertised the game here for free.
Especially the name of the country. You got the infor you wanted and confirmation of your Ev calculations, why name the country?
Without the name of the country the information would have been mostly useless.
With the name of the country the information are valuable.

I am pretty sure there are APs out there who would pay for this info in money or with info on other AP opportunities.

Quote: Mission146

It has nothing to do with jobs in and of themselves, it has to do with money moving and the consumption of Base Goods. Of course, jobs are currently the primary means by which money moves and people buy base goods. Theoretically, maybe you could have a world where only a minimum amount of people have to have jobs, but that does nothing to defeat Keynesianism, because that's not the court where we're playing ball.

In terms of societal utility, I suppose there are, "Better," things that someone with a mind such as Grosjean's could be doing. However, in terms of Grosjean's personal utility, given your position that Grosjean could do just about anything, and making the assumption that Grosjean knows that, leads me to believe that Grosjean is doing what he most wants to be doing.

Quote: Mission146

It has nothing to do with jobs in and of themselves, it has to do with money moving and the consumption of Base Goods. Of course, jobs are currently the primary means by which money moves and people buy base goods. Theoretically, maybe you could have a world where only a minimum amount of people have to have jobs, but that does nothing to defeat Keynesianism, because that's not the court where we're playing ball.

In terms of societal utility, I suppose there are, "Better," things that someone with a mind such as Grosjean's could be doing. However, in terms of Grosjean's personal utility, given your position that Grosjean could do just about anything, and making the assumption that Grosjean knows that, leads me to believe that Grosjean is doing what he most wants to be doing.

Quote: MaxPen

I prefer the Austrian system myself.
https://mises.org/about-mises

Quote: bigfoot66

Quote: MaxPen

I prefer the Austrian system myself.
https://mises.org/about-mises

“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they understand about what they imagine they can design.”

F.A. Hayek, The Fatal Conceit

Quote: bigfoot66

Consumption does not make the world a richer place, investment and production do. Moving money does not help the economy either, if it did then pyramid schemes would be a major economic stimulus. I do not begrudge Grosjean for using his potential to destroy games instead of running a company, but the point is that gambling is a zero sum game: Grosjean wins and is better off, Loveman loses and is worse off to an equal degree. When you are running a hotel, both you and your customer win: Your customer gets use of a hotel room which he values more than his $100, You get his $100 which you value more than the hotel room. Both parties are better off and WEALTH IS CREATED OUT OF THIN AIR!

Quote:

Moving money is not good in and of itself, it is good because it is a measure of how many of these transactions take place. In the hotel example, the traveler might value the hotel room at $200 but he only has to pay $100, thus he has effectively become $100 wealthier by trading with you. Likewise you only spend $80 per room night to build and maintain the hotel, so you have created an additional $20 of wealth for yourself. When the $100 moves from his pocket to your cash register, it lets us know that some amount of new wealth was created. You are celebrating AP's who do not create new wealth in their activities.

Quote: MissEye

Mostly just counters, hole card cheats, not slot AP. And yes, I am proud when I do my job well as anyone should be. I believe in doing well at something I'm paid to do. Guess I'm crazy like that :)

Quote: ssho88

From our experience, all the games attacked by us will not last long, that's why we don't mine to mention the country name. Do you think that we are so stupid to burn our own game before we play it ?