Riva
Riva
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April 30th, 2015 at 10:19:20 AM permalink
As many know here, I help out at a large charitable gaming fundraising event for a local school. It takes place over the 4-day Memorial weekend in a huge tent on our 130-acre campus. This year, I want to offer the "Let it Ride" game however, have some questions.

First, let me say that as a fundraiser event, bet limits are capped at $5 and payouts are shaved from what a professional casino's normal payout schedule.

I am trying to determine if we should set up 2 or 3 tables. If we have only 2 and we get clobbered on 1 of them, we have the other table to protect us. Then again, if we had 3, how likely is it that 2 or all 3 might get clobbered. For the record, a royal flush will pay 50:1 so, our max exposure on a royal with 3 $5 bets is $150 for that one payout. Simply trying to mitigate risk.

Just to confirm...players never turn their cards up until the dealer turns over the final community card, right?

Does the "3-Card bonus bet" have to be for the same amount as the "basic bet"? In other words, if the player put out 3 $1 basic bets, are they allowed to put say, a $5 bonus bet or visa versa?

As always, thanks for the input.
Hunterhill
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April 30th, 2015 at 11:20:07 AM permalink
Quote: Riva

As many know here, I help out at a large charitable gaming fundraising event for a local school. It takes place over the 4-day Memorial weekend in a huge tent on our 130-acre campus. This year, I want to offer the "Let it Ride" game however, have some questions.

First, let me say that as a fundraiser event, bet limits are capped at $5 and payouts are shaved from what a professional casino's normal payout schedule.

I am trying to determine if we should set up 2 or 3 tables. If we have only 2 and we get clobbered on 1 of them, we have the other table to protect us. Then again, if we had 3, how likely is it that 2 or all 3 might get clobbered. For the record, a royal flush will pay 50:1 so, our max exposure on a royal with 3 $5 bets is $150 for that one payout. Simply trying to mitigate risk.

Just to confirm...players never turn their cards up until the dealer turns over the final community card, right?

Does the "3-Card bonus bet" have to be for the same amount as the "basic bet"? In other words, if the player put out 3 $1 basic bets, are they allowed to put say, a $5 bonus bet or visa versa?
If a player pulled back his first two bets your exposure is $250. So if he let all of them ride your exposure would be $750.

As always, thanks for the input.

Don't teach an alligator how to swim.
gordonm888
gordonm888
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April 30th, 2015 at 11:22:41 AM permalink
Quote: Riva


I am trying to determine if we should set up 2 or 3 tables. If we have only 2 and we get clobbered on 1 of them, we have the other table to protect us. Then again, if we had 3, how likely is it that 2 or all 3 might get clobbered. For the record, a royal flush will pay 50:1 so, our max exposure on a royal with 3 $5 bets is $150 for that one payout. Simply trying to mitigate risk.



Protection for the house from statistically freaky hands takes the form of playing many hands, not having hands dealt at separate tables.

It is true that, on any given hand, the fate of all players' hands at a Let It Ride table are weakly entangled by the two community cards that all players share. But this "entanglement" is very weak. The worst commonly-occuring thing that can happen for the house on any given hand is that the 2 common cards are a pair of Tens- Aces, and all players at the table have at least a high pair, and some may have two pair or 3 of a kind (or rarely a four of a kind). And the payouts on High Pair, 2 Pair and Trips are fairly low. So it's hard to imagine some table-specific catastrophe occurring that costs the house a lot of money.

I imagine the worst thing that can happen for the house at a Let It Ride table is the two community cards are a suited J-10 and one player has a suited (same suit) AKQ and a Royal Flush and a second player has a suited(same suit) 987 and a straight flush. (And a third player having JJ-T for a Full House and a 4th player having TT-J for another Full House.) The probability of a deal like that must be astronomically low, though.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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April 30th, 2015 at 11:23:45 AM permalink
On LIR, 50:1 with $5 max bet would pay $450 on the 3 spots; virtually nobody would drop with 3 to the Royal in their hand, so you're going to be paying 3 spots, not 1. Still a gross underpayment, but as you say, it's for charity. Not that it's going to hit in 4 days. But you never know.

Places I've played do not require 3 card bonus bets to be the same amount as the base bet. The min/max limits may be different on the 2 bets, but no additional requirement for them to match.

It's already a high HE game compared to most others; I shudder to think what your shaved paytable looks like. A horrible hit rate, too; only about 1 in 5 hands pays anything, and most of those you've already pulled back part of your bet.

Confirming: players do not expose their hands at all. The dealer turns them and pays/collects after the house hand has been fully exposed.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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April 30th, 2015 at 11:28:05 AM permalink
I've seen one royal on LiR in my gaming life. Over 20 years. I've seen 3 on Mississippi Stud, 2 of which were less than a week apart.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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April 30th, 2015 at 11:35:40 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I've seen one royal on LiR in my gaming life. Over 20 years. I've seen 3 on Mississippi Stud, 2 of which were less than a week apart.



Same here. Sat next to one in 1993 at Grand Biloxi. Never seen it again.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Romes
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April 30th, 2015 at 11:49:01 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Same here. Sat next to one in 1993 at Grand Biloxi. Never seen it again.


I was dealt Ac-Kc-Qc when I was 19 and first ventured to Canada. Three $15 bets, I stuck on all of them... First dealer card up Jc. I was freaking out, pit was observing and preparing for what may happen (I think I figured my RF would have been like $40-$45k). Last card? Complete blank, lost the hand and didn't even make a pair. Probably for the best... at 19 with a bunch of my friends, had I won $45k (and taken $30k after taxes) we would have probably all died that weekend.

As for the charity event, I wouldn't worry too much about getting clobbered on any table. I programmed a sim to see if there was an AP play on LIR. I assumed I was playing all 6 spots and knew all the cards so I could make optimal plays. The result was still absolutely negative. To put it in terms of a graph, it was on a stead decline, then I'd hit 4oak or something and spike up, then just shoot directly back down. It did this all the way to the converging EV. The only way you could get "clobbered" is if on the very last night and the last few hours tons of people hit huge to spike up the graph then you didn't have the game offered anymore for them to give it back (though I would still think the prior days would cover you plus some). Point being, LIR, especially with the horrific 'charity' pay scale, is not a game you should worry about getting clobbered in.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Riva
Riva
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April 30th, 2015 at 11:57:12 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

I've seen one royal on LiR in my gaming life. Over 20 years. I've seen 3 on Mississippi Stud, 2 of which were less than a week apart.



I was chatting with a pal who runs a charitable game for the local chamber of commerce. His event is for only 2 days. He shared with me that during the event, they had 3 royals hit, each with a $450 payout. Overall thought, he said the games (3 tables) made money for the weekend.

Strange thing..I went up to visit his event on both days. The exact same same players who were on the tables all Friday night were there all day Saturday and nobody else could get on a table.

Finally, I'm planning on having somebody other than the dealer doing nothing but shuffling individual decks. In that manner, there is absolutely no down time from dealer shuffling. Simply end the hand and grab a fresh shuffled deck.
Romes
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April 30th, 2015 at 12:01:33 PM permalink
Quote: Riva

I was chatting with a pal who runs a charitable game for the local chamber of commerce. His event is for only 2 days. He shared with me that during the event, they had 3 royals hit, each with a $450 payout. Overall thought, he said the games (3 tables) made money for the weekend.


1) Highly improbable.
2) With the harshly shorted payouts the tables still made money, and this would appear to be near worst case scenario. This supports my "you have nothing to worry about" position.

Quote: Riva

Strange thing..I went up to visit his event on both days. The exact same same players who were on the tables all Friday night were there all day Saturday and nobody else could get on a table...


3) This would concern me more than anything. Combine this with the fact that THREE royals hit in only a 2 day span. I'd say you have better odds that something external was going on than 3 RF's hitting in a 2 day span of about what, 4-5 hours each day?

Edit: Some Math

One 80 in ~52,000,000 combinations to make a royal in LIR (from the Wizard). This breaks down to about 1 in 642,000. Assuming the tables were open for 10 hours a day, 2 days... that's 20 hours. Let's say they got a staggering 100 hands per hour (laughably outside of any real average). This would mean that in 2 days 2,000 hands were dealt. You're telling me 3 royal flushes, which are 1 in 642,000 hit within 2,000 hands? Without even calculating the odds of that actually happening I can comfortably say the answer is .000000000000.....something.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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April 30th, 2015 at 12:06:24 PM permalink
Quote: Riva

I was chatting with a pal who runs a charitable game for the local chamber of commerce. His event is for only 2 days. He shared with me that during the event, they had 3 royals hit, each with a $450 payout. Overall thought, he said the games (3 tables) made money for the weekend.

Strange thing..I went up to visit his event on both days. The exact same same players who were on the tables all Friday night were there all day Saturday and nobody else could get on a table.

Finally, I'm planning on having somebody other than the dealer doing nothing but shuffling individual decks. In that manner, there is absolutely no down time from dealer shuffling. Simply end the hand and grab a fresh shuffled deck.



I would also (along with Romes) be highly suspicious of this. The odds of 3 royals hitting in that small a sample has to be in the quintillions. I think your friend got taken. Hope you got a good look at the players from his game and can bounce them if they show up at yours.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

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