RS
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March 18th, 2015 at 8:46:51 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

It's not ambiguous at all if you have ever played baccarat.

Player gets 2 cards
Banker gets 2 cards

During the reveal of the player cards, if the first card is a good card, like an 8 or 9, then B79 MAY decide to employ his monkey to help reveal the second card to be a '0'.

Alternatively, B79 may decide to use the monkey during the dealer's reveal, to ensure a '0' is the second card revealed.

Finally, when either the player or the banker are getting a third card, B7 MAY decide to use the monkey to ensure a 'o' card is the 3rd card dealt. B79 would use the monkey to ensure a '0' card comes up so that his bet will win, be it a Player bet or a Banker bet.

B79 will use his monkey on 2 separate occasions during the session. If a '0' card is turned up on each occasion, B79 wins. If a non '0' card is turned up on either occasion, then B79 loses.

How is this ambiguous?



What you wrote is not ambiguous.

What B79 wrote IS ambiguous, mostly here:

Quote: Bac79

The card I need my little monkey's power for might be for us or for the other side.



I'd *think* that means a specific card (specifically banker or specifically player) needs to be a Ten. Although it could be construed as "either player or banker will be a Ten".


@AxelWolf: Yes I'll take action. How much are you willing to give me?
sc15
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March 18th, 2015 at 8:55:47 PM permalink
Quote: RS

What you wrote is not ambiguous.

What B79 wrote IS ambiguous, mostly here:



I'd *think* that means a specific card (specifically banker or specifically player) needs to be a Ten. Although it could be construed as "either player or banker will be a Ten".


@AxelWolf: Yes I'll take action. How much are you willing to give me?



I think he has to call a specific card to be a 0. That card can be going to either the banker or the player, but he has to specifically point out 1 card that's going to be a 0, and do that twice during the session.
beachbumbabs
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March 18th, 2015 at 9:47:09 PM permalink
I thought RC explained it very well. Any of those situations could occur, where he wants one side or the other to be a monkey. He could be betting Player or Banker at that time, could want to hold a good value or reinforce a bad one. He hasn't ever said it will be a Player card or a Banker card, that it will be a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd card; just that when he really needs a 10 (0 count) he can bring the monkey out and make it happen twice in one playing session. Seems pretty straightforward to me.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
AxelWolf
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March 18th, 2015 at 9:49:30 PM permalink
Quote: RS

What you wrote is not ambiguous.

What B79 wrote IS ambiguous, mostly here:



I'd *think* that means a specific card (specifically banker or specifically player) needs to be a Ten. Although it could be construed as "either player or banker will be a Ten".


@AxelWolf: Yes I'll take action. How much are you willing to give me?

$1
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
sc15
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March 18th, 2015 at 10:09:21 PM permalink
I have a drinking challenge for the people who will be accompanying B79 to the table.

See if you can drink your way through B79's comp balance, LOL.
MaxPen
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March 18th, 2015 at 10:10:35 PM permalink
There is no ambiguity to Bacc's proposition. At anytime of his choosing he is going to use his monkey to get a 10,J,Q,K. Not once but twice when he feels the need during his session.

If the monkey fails to summon any one of the two tens he buys dinner up to $400. If the monkey brings the two tens home, I buy him dinner up to $400.

The math is simple. Starting with a new shoe it is 4/13*4/13. Close enough to the much touted 9.5%

With a count I am probably at worst scenario still 3-1 favorite.

This is not about math. This is about a magic monkey. I accepted the wager because I am too damn cheap to spend that kind of cash on a dinner, but would enjoy the experience. I also love interesting prop bets. I am a poker player and have been involved in many prop bets.

I like blackjack, but am more focused on advantage play of various blackjack side bets.

Win or lose, I am sure it will be a good time.

If the bet is to be settled in cash, I would gladly spread my action to any other attendees. But I think this is dinner, winners choice.
AxelWolf
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March 18th, 2015 at 10:38:11 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

There is no ambiguity to Bacc's proposition. At anytime of his choosing he is going to use his monkey to get a 10,J,Q,K. Not once but twice when he feels the need during his session.

If the monkey fails to summon any one of the two tens he buys dinner up to $400. If the monkey brings the two tens home, I buy him dinner up to $400.

The math is simple. Starting with a new shoe it is 4/13*4/13. Close enough to the much touted 9.5%

With a count I am probably at worst scenario still 3-1 favorite.

This is not about math. This is about a magic monkey. I accepted the wager because I am too damn cheap to spend that kind of cash on a dinner, but would enjoy the experience. I also love interesting prop bets. I am a poker player and have been involved in many prop bets.

I like blackjack, but am more focused on advantage play of various blackjack side bets.

Win or lose, I am sure it will be a good time.

If the bet is to be settled in cash, I would gladly spread my action to any other attendees. But I think this is dinner, winners choice.



There's obviously some confusion I assumed he offered $400 total and said me and you had that action. That's $200 in action each.
I though he was in agreement that cash was acceptable. I'm willing to give up some action however its hard to split up $400 in dinner. I seriously doubt I could eat my fair share. Also there's a chance something could come up but my bet would still stand with someone in my place. I wouldn't benefit from dinner if that happened.

Mission confirmed I already put up $400. Ill be happy to split that with you unless he's putting up an additional $400 that's $200 for both of us.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
sc15
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March 18th, 2015 at 10:51:06 PM permalink
Trust me, B79 isn't going to be counting cards to try to increase his odds on a $400 bet.

If he was going to do that he'd be putting his mind (and money) to a real advantage play in the casino. Even if he won this longshot it wouldn't come close to covering his theoretical losses for the session.
djatc
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March 18th, 2015 at 10:54:58 PM permalink
Why the hell isn't this for cash, and for a food comp nobody wants anyway? As much as I can eat this sounds ridiculous, so if I win you are going to treat me to dinner up to $400, when I could just get 4 bills from you and call it a day. On the flip side if I lose (lol) I have to buy you dinner up to $400 instead of handing you over $400?

Coming from a high roller this sounds fishy.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
MaxPen
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March 18th, 2015 at 10:59:29 PM permalink
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

Axelwolf, and Maxpen is what it looks like.

If I win, I will give it to my favorite charity "Shriners Hospitals for Children" or "Make-A-Wish", either one. Be glad to post receipts.



You might be right Axel. Whatever way, I am good with it, as the proposition is clear.

B79, Can you clarify amounts and settlements?
AxelWolf
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March 18th, 2015 at 10:59:50 PM permalink
Ill be surprised if this ever happens.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
RS
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March 18th, 2015 at 11:16:50 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Ill be surprised if this ever happens.



I agree -- but if it does happen, I'll take that $1 in action.

Wait hold on.......if it's for dinner......can you just get me a Monster Taco from Jack In the Box? If we lose, I'll get you a taco with lettuce, shredded cheese, extra tomatoes, with 1.5 mild sauce packets.....or however the hell you like your jack in the box tacos prepared. :)
sc15
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March 18th, 2015 at 11:28:30 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

Why the hell isn't this for cash, and for a food comp nobody wants anyway? As much as I can eat this sounds ridiculous, so if I win you are going to treat me to dinner up to $400, when I could just get 4 bills from you and call it a day. On the flip side if I lose (lol) I have to buy you dinner up to $400 instead of handing you over $400?

Coming from a high roller this sounds fishy.



It is for cash now.. originally it was for food, then it got changed.

And btw, I've spent upwards of $2K for dinner for 3 people in vegas (comped of course). Spending $400 is easy. Liquor is expensive.
EvenBob
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:02:13 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Ill be surprised if this ever happens.



I also believe he's 'having you on', as the
Brits say.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
beachbumbabs
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:13:34 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I also believe he's 'having you on', as the
Brits say.



I'm going to be the square and say he'll follow through on it. Side action?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Baccaratfrom79
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:19:21 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

There is no ambiguity to Bacc's proposition. At anytime of his choosing he is going to use his monkey to get a 10,J,Q,K. Not once but twice when he feels the need during his session.

If the monkey fails to summon any one of the two tens he buys dinner up to $400. If the monkey brings the two tens home, I buy him dinner up to $400.

The math is simple. Starting with a new shoe it is 4/13*4/13. Close enough to the much touted 9.5%

With a count I am probably at worst scenario still 3-1 favorite.

This is not about math. This is about a magic monkey. I accepted the wager because I am too damn cheap to spend that kind of cash on a dinner, but would enjoy the experience. I also love interesting prop bets. I am a poker player and have been involved in many prop bets.

I like blackjack, but am more focused on advantage play of various blackjack side bets.

Win or lose, I am sure it will be a good time.

If the bet is to be settled in cash, I would gladly spread my action to any other attendees. But I think this is dinner, winners choice.



This is exactly as it was meant to be. It started out as dinner for $400.00 until I was accused of getting my end covered with a food comp. But that was not true because I Said at any casino or any restaurant in Las Vegas. So, I switched it to cash. MY end when I prevail I will send either $800 or $1,600 to the Shriner's Hospital for Children or Make A Wish.
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
AxelWolf
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:21:41 AM permalink
Quote: RS

I agree -- but if it does happen, I'll take that $1 in action.

Wait hold on.......if it's for dinner......can you just get me a Monster Taco from Jack In the Box? If we lose, I'll get you a taco with lettuce, shredded cheese, extra tomatoes, with 1.5 mild sauce packets.....or however the hell you like your jack in the box tacos prepared. :)

I was joking about the $1 You're welcome to 1/3 of my action and ill reserve 1/3 for whoever.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Baccaratfrom79
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:29:13 AM permalink
Quote: sc15

It is for cash now.. originally it was for food, then it got changed.

And btw, I've spent upwards of $2K for dinner for 3 people in vegas (comped of course). Spending $400 is easy. Liquor is expensive.



Now if I said that I swear I would have been blasted.

BUT you know in realty for 2 people say, $400.00 covers almost anywhere with several drinks. Jasmine @ Bellagio for 2 or3 with a couple drinks each is hard to spend over $400.00, or Japonis at the Mirage or Strip Steak, even $100 each or $125 each and a few drinks. I ate all over town and unless I am with 6 people and we get say three bottles, it is hard to get into the $2k range unless we ordered a bottle of Louis the 13th. Seriously. We ate at Beijing Noodle House at CP with a 3 pound lobster, I Showed the picture in my trip report, we had about 6 dishes, the bill was $212.00.with tip $265 I think. No drinks. Whatever. TALK shit people.
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
Baccaratfrom79
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:32:54 AM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

It's not ambiguous at all if you have ever played baccarat.

Player gets 2 cards
Banker gets 2 cards

During the reveal of the player cards, if the first card is a good card, like an 8 or 9, then B79 MAY decide to employ his monkey to help reveal the second card to be a '0'.

Alternatively, B79 may decide to use the monkey during the dealer's reveal, to ensure a '0' is the second card revealed.

Finally, when either the player or the banker are getting a third card, B7 MAY decide to use the monkey to ensure a 'o' card is the 3rd card dealt. B79 would use the monkey to ensure a '0' card comes up so that his bet will win, be it a Player bet or a Banker bet.

B79 will use his monkey on 2 separate occasions during the session. If a '0' card is turned up on each occasion, B79 wins. If a non '0' card is turned up on either occasion, then B79 loses.

How is this ambiguous?



Problem comes in when people are not familiar with the game.
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
MrV
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:37:59 AM permalink
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

TALK shit people.



"Monkey, monkey, be my hero, make the next card be worth ZERO!"
"What, me worry?"
MaxPen
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:51:53 AM permalink
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

This is exactly as it was meant to be. It started out as dinner for $400.00 until I was accused of getting my end covered with a food comp. But that was not true because I Said at any casino or any restaurant in Las Vegas. So, I switched it to cash. MY end when I prevail I will send either $800 or $1,600 to the Shriner's Hospital for Children or Make A Wish.



Ok. Cash it is then.

If I win, I am still going to blow it on a nice dinner just for the spirit of the prop. I will bow to the monkey as well.

Awful nice of you to make donations either way.
Baccaratfrom79
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:52:44 AM permalink
You know its the same as a mechanic standing there trying to figure something out. The guy has been working on it all day, cant get it---just cant find the air leak on the semi tractor. He is a very good mechanic with many years of experience. Here come along another mechanic with just a little more experience and time on the job. Actually the first guy in a bit smarter--by the book and as far as measurable talent goes but the second guy in a bit more adventurous and creative. THE Second guy is a do'er and a risk taker being more aggressive and employing techniques and his own brand of skill and of course intuition. THE Second guy takes one look at it, pauses a long second and points to an air line on the back side of the compressor with a tiny crack on the brass retainer screw-up nut.

The first guy, breathes heavy through his nose and says, smart ass. The second guy says, nope-when you play this game the right way you learn how to recognize things.
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
MaxPen
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March 19th, 2015 at 1:03:30 AM permalink
I am willing to sell up to $200 worth of action with anyone that can be present at a cost of $1.50 per $1 of action regarding this prop.
Any takers? On sale, first to commit, all or a piece.
sc15
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March 19th, 2015 at 1:08:20 AM permalink
Quote: Baccaratfrom79

Now if I said that I swear I would have been blasted.

BUT you know in realty for 2 people say, $400.00 covers almost anywhere with several drinks. Jasmine @ Bellagio for 2 or3 with a couple drinks each is hard to spend over $400.00, or Japonis at the Mirage or Strip Steak, even $100 each or $125 each and a few drinks. I ate all over town and unless I am with 6 people and we get say three bottles, it is hard to get into the $2k range unless we ordered a bottle of Louis the 13th. Seriously. We ate at Beijing Noodle House at CP with a 3 pound lobster, I Showed the picture in my trip report, we had about 6 dishes, the bill was $212.00.with tip $265 I think. No drinks. Whatever. TALK shit people.



A couple bottles of dom and you'll already be more than halfway to 2K.
sc15
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March 19th, 2015 at 1:09:48 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

I am willing to sell up to $200 worth of action with anyone that can be present at a cost of $2 per $1 of action regarding this prop.
Any takers? On sale, first to commit, all or a piece.



Um, if someone pays $2 for $1 of action then they can at best break even.
MaxPen
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March 19th, 2015 at 1:15:14 AM permalink
Quote: sc15

Um, if someone pays $2 for $1 of action then they can at best break even.



Oops, should have put $1.50 for $1. Thanks
Baccaratfrom79
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March 19th, 2015 at 1:43:42 AM permalink
Quote: sc15

A couple bottles of dom and you'll already be more than halfway to 2K.



REALLY?!!! I have never seen a bottle of Dom. Screw top or cork?? Just Curious...
Bac79=Hazardous Material and Chemical person correcting other's mistakes. Non AP'er, I can't count cards, low intelligence. Sprinkles magical dust on the cards. Has a lucky monkey. Baby also has a green one. Sum it up: "It's okay just blame me, it's all my fault"! ( No one believes me--so I chose to stop posting)
odiousgambit
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March 19th, 2015 at 3:56:37 AM permalink
Oh, my, concern about card counting?

Now, I am not in on this bet - I would like part of the action in other circumstances, but generally speaking anymore I am slow to get involved with private betting*

HOWEVER, having said that, considering the mathematical edge involved with this even money bet, and the unlikely evolution of anything other than reduced advantage by card counting, I hereby declare that any party insisting on 'no card counting' to be

CHICKEN...

SHIT


*I'm repeating myself to say the welching and trickery involved in private betting has soured me to the nth
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
AxelWolf
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March 19th, 2015 at 8:29:00 AM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

I also believe he's 'having you on', as the
Brits say.

Right, Been there done that. Other than some challenges and personal self improvement bets, or bets with members in good standing, very few "system player" bets have actually happened. At least it seems that way.

SamMaxswell Went so far as to scrape up, borrow or whatever 2500 and take a pictures etc etc. Varmenti made some kind of promise. He even hat cat money pictures (how can that go wrong?). There's been others I don't remember very well. They always seem to find some way to weasel out.

I'm going to give Baccarat79 the benefit of doubt for now, and not put him into that category, but i'm willing to make a hedge bet saying that due to no fault of my own this never happens.

Bob didn't you say something about talking action?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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March 19th, 2015 at 8:34:03 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

Oh, my, concern about card counting?

Now, I am not in on this bet - I would like part of the action in other circumstances, but generally speaking anymore I am slow to get involved with private betting*

HOWEVER, having said that, considering the mathematical edge involved with this even money bet, and the unlikely evolution of anything other than reduced advantage by card counting, I hereby declare that any party insisting on 'no card counting' to be

CHICKEN...

SHIT


*I'm repeating myself to say the welching and trickery involved in private betting has soured me to the nth

I was concerned because I didn't have enough information. I didn't know if a guy could sit there for 6 hrs with a pen and paper while waiting for the perfect opportunity.

I not chicken I put up $400 in earnest/ good faith money even the before details were understood, just want to cover my ass and not find out I made a foolish bet.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
teliot
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March 19th, 2015 at 8:53:17 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I was concerned because I didn't have enough information. I didn't know if a guy could sit there for 6 hrs with a pen and paper while waiting for the perfect opportunity.

If the remainder of the shoe is (roughly) 70.7% ten-valued cards, then the chances of guessing two face cards is (0.707)*(0.707) = 0.5 and it is an even-money bet. Since the ten-valued cards start out being (4/13) = 30.8% of the deck, it is going to be a long wait to find the opportunity, highly doubtful in one night to have this happen purely by chance.

On the other hand, shuffle tracking could easily defeat this bet (who hand-shuffles baccarat anyway?). The shuffle procedure in baccarat is usually very simple-minded since it doesn't require a thorough mixing to randomize the Player/Banker/Tie outcomes.

One could also consider edge sorting face vs. non-face. This would be too problematic to be used for a one-off, especially after Ivey essentially told the universe to include a "turn" in every shuffle procedure. But if the stakes were high enough and B79 already knew a place where he could do this, then he would almost certainly win the wager.

However, the most effective method to win this bet for B79 would be for him to use a location play with bottom card exposure, typically arising from the so-called "ribbon spread." Then he would surely win 100% of the time. Such opportunities are now rare, but if found, this wager would make a great sucker bets against APs who didn't know any better.

Of course, if B79 understood any of this, he would be willing to wager a lot more. It follows that this is really a wager that B79 is not an AP.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
AxelWolf
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March 19th, 2015 at 9:29:07 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

I am willing to sell up to $200 worth of action with anyone that can be present at a cost of $1.50 per $1 of action regarding this prop.
Any takers? On sale, first to commit, all or a piece.

It's Baccarat79's bet so he can take action from whoever he wants. At this point he still hasn't put up a penny nor have you.
So you or him have absolutely zero risk at this point, we are all at his mercy since he's the one with the magic monkey. Not everyone is sitting around Vegas with nothing to do. People have to make plans, cancel prior engagements move around scheduling etc etc. (My money is up so im committed as long as this happens, Ill assume RS or someone I trust will be there if I can't make it)

Link to the dates please?

Assuming this all goes as planned
To be fair you're a new member with 2 or 3 posts before this thread. You have been offered $400 in action, thats a nice chunk. Many guys/gals are chomping at the bit to get in on this and they are willing to put up the money with a trusted 3rd member to hold. Mission has mine (He's probably trying to double it at the craps table as we speak :)

Since as of now you are relatively a new member with no history. Can you make arrangements with a trusted 3rd party to hold the $400 (a list can be supplied if needed)
Short list of people NOT to give it to. Lem66 (just kidding Lem66, I know you're reading)

I can offer this, Ill be willing to put up the entire amount $800 total, If you show up, give me (or someone representing me)the $400 and then you have your $400 in action, if you don't show I have the entire $800 of action (ill split that with various members)

Ps. if you're going to have someone represent you, for a fee Ill do it for free, if you get me the money upfront.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxelWolf
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March 19th, 2015 at 9:40:04 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

If the remainder of the shoe is (roughly) 70.7% ten-valued cards, then the chances of guessing two face cards is (0.707)*(0.707) = 0.5 and it is an even-money bet. Since the ten-valued cards start out being (4/13) = 30.8% of the deck, it is going to be a long wait to find the opportunity, highly doubtful in one night to have this happen purely by chance.

On the other hand, shuffle tracking could easily defeat this bet (who hand-shuffles baccarat anyway?). The shuffle procedure in baccarat is usually very simple-minded since it doesn't require a thorough mixing to randomize the Player/Banker/Tie outcomes.

One could also consider edge sorting face vs. non-face. This would be too problematic to be used for a one-off, especially after Ivey essentially told the universe to include a "turn" in every shuffle procedure. But if the stakes were high enough and B79 already knew a place where he could do this, then he would almost certainly win the wager.

However, the most effective method to win this bet for B79 would be for him to use a location play with bottom card exposure, typically arising from the so-called "ribbon spread." Then he would surely win 100% of the time. Such opportunities are now rare, but if found, this wager would make a great sucker bets against APs who didn't know any better.

Of course, if B79 understood any of this, he would be willing to wager a lot more. It follows that this is really a wager that B79 is not an AP.

If he's edge sorting or anything advantageous he would be an idiot for even talking to us.

It's to my understanding he takes a long time before he brings out his monkey money and waits for the perfect opportunity. Is it a possibility that somehow he is subconsciously counting (I know its a stretch) and the reason his monkey tends to work often is there's a correlation and he doesn't realize it?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
sc15
sc15
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March 19th, 2015 at 9:56:28 AM permalink
Quote: teliot

If the remainder of the shoe is (roughly) 70.7% ten-valued cards, then the chances of guessing two face cards is (0.707)*(0.707) = 0.5 and it is an even-money bet. Since the ten-valued cards start out being (4/13) = 30.8% of the deck, it is going to be a long wait to find the opportunity, highly doubtful in one night to have this happen purely by chance.

On the other hand, shuffle tracking could easily defeat this bet (who hand-shuffles baccarat anyway?). The shuffle procedure in baccarat is usually very simple-minded since it doesn't require a thorough mixing to randomize the Player/Banker/Tie outcomes.

One could also consider edge sorting face vs. non-face. This would be too problematic to be used for a one-off, especially after Ivey essentially told the universe to include a "turn" in every shuffle procedure. But if the stakes were high enough and B79 already knew a place where he could do this, then he would almost certainly win the wager.

However, the most effective method to win this bet for B79 would be for him to use a location play with bottom card exposure, typically arising from the so-called "ribbon spread." Then he would surely win 100% of the time. Such opportunities are now rare, but if found, this wager would make a great sucker bets against APs who didn't know any better.

Of course, if B79 understood any of this, he would be willing to wager a lot more. It follows that this is really a wager that B79 is not an AP.



Yeah, if he was doing any of these techniques he'd be a retard for inviting other people along and possibly blowing a game worth tens of thousands in EV to make 400 bucks, LOL...
MaxPen
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March 19th, 2015 at 9:58:16 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

It's Baccarat79's bet so he can take action from whoever he wants. At this point he still hasn't put up a penny nor have you.
So you or him have absolutely zero risk at this point, we are all at his mercy since he's the one with the magic monkey. Not everyone is sitting around Vegas with nothing to do. People have to make plans, cancel prior engagements move around scheduling etc etc. (My money is up so im committed as long as this happens, Ill assume RS or someone I trust will be there if I can't make it)

Link to the dates please?

Assuming this all goes as planned
To be fair you're a new member with 2 or 3 posts before this thread. You have been offered $400 in action, thats a nice chunk. Many guys/gals are chomping at the bit to get in on this and they are willing to put up the money with a trusted 3rd member to hold. Mission has mine (He's probably trying to double it at the craps table as we speak :)

Since as of now you are relatively a new member with no history. Can you make arrangements with a trusted 3rd party to hold the $400 (a list can be supplied if needed)
Short list of people NOT to give it to. Lem66 (just kidding Lem66, I know you're reading)

I can offer this, Ill be willing to put up the entire amount $800 total, If you show up, give me (or someone representing me)the $400 and then you have your $400 in action, if you don't show I have the entire $800 of action (ill split that with various members)

Ps. if you're going to have someone represent you, for a fee Ill do it for free, if you get me the money upfront.



I have been reading this board for a couple years. You definitely come across as trustworthy. I have no problems meeting up with you and giving you 400 to secure the wager if that makes you and others more comfortable. That would probably get some takers on the $200 worth I am willing to sell.

Virtually no chance that I wouldn't be able to be present for the magic monkey show.
sc15
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March 19th, 2015 at 10:00:08 AM permalink
Oh, and this should be obvious, but the "magic monkey" call has to be prior to the card being pulled out of the shoe.
AcesAndEights
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March 19th, 2015 at 10:18:02 AM permalink
Quote: djatc

Why the hell isn't this for cash, and for a food comp nobody wants anyway? As much as I can eat this sounds ridiculous, so if I win you are going to treat me to dinner up to $400, when I could just get 4 bills from you and call it a day. On the flip side if I lose (lol) I have to buy you dinner up to $400 instead of handing you over $400?

Coming from a high roller this sounds fishy.


I think he just wants it to be fun, and not about the money so much as the pageantry and camaraderie and meeting some people from the board; showing them how he has a good time in the high limit pits getting on a sick heater. Dinner would be in the spirit of that, as opposed to cold hard cash. Doesn't seem fishy to me.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
AxelWolf
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March 19th, 2015 at 11:07:43 AM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

I have been reading this board for a couple years. You definitely come across as trustworthy. I have no problems meeting up with you and giving you 400 to secure the wager if that makes you and others more comfortable. That would probably get some takers on the $200 worth I am willing to sell.

Virtually no chance that I wouldn't be able to be present for the magic monkey show.

Ill be back in Vegas for a week or so about the 25th give or take a few days. Ill PM you when I get back and make arrangements. The problem is he might be considering this 2 separate bets over 2 nights or something I can't promise someone will be available both nights .

Now if we can get Baccarat79 to post up his $800 and lock this all in.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ThatDonGuy
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March 19th, 2015 at 11:16:19 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

It's to my understanding he takes a long time before he brings out his monkey money and waits for the perfect opportunity. Is it a possibility that somehow he is subconsciously counting (I know its a stretch) and the reason his monkey tends to work often is there's a correlation and he doesn't realize it?


You don't have to "subconsciously" count in Baccarat in Vegas; open counting is specifically allowed under Nevada law, provided it's handwritten as opposed to electronic.
AxelWolf
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March 19th, 2015 at 11:32:08 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

You don't have to "subconsciously" count in Baccarat in Vegas; open counting is specifically allowed under Nevada law, provided it's handwritten as opposed to electronic.

Yes I realize that I meant he may not be internationally doing it. Kind of like when regular ploppies play BJ sometimes they notice when lots of small cards come out and bet more. They have no clue what the count is but by just guessing they might have +EV on that hand. Usually they notice "all" Aces and tens are gone.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
odiousgambit
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March 19th, 2015 at 11:38:42 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I not chicken I put up $400 in earnest/ good faith money even the before details were understood, just want to cover my ass and not find out I made a foolish bet.



If something made you feel foolish, IMO it'd be on the order of 'cider in your ear'. In other words, trickery.

I think otherwise, with any reasonable time limit involved, you have to figure taking your chances on all the monkey cards still being undealt yet , is just the kind of risk you should pounce on.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MaxPen
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March 19th, 2015 at 11:45:22 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Ill be back in Vegas for a week or so about the 25th give or take a few days. Ill PM you when I get back and make arrangements. The problem is he might be considering this 2 separate bets over 2 nights or something I can't promise someone will be available both nights .

Now if we can get Baccarat79 to post up his $800 and lock this all in.



No his monkey is going to summon 2 zero value cards, anytime he chooses during a single session. I don't feel the need for him to put up anything in advance. He should have plenty of chips in front of him to pay if he loses. If that magic monkey brings him the 2 zero cards we each pay him $400. If the dastardly monkey fails he pays each of us $400.
Kerkebet
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:05:49 PM permalink
If I'm reading all of this correctly - and there ain't much - then this has to be one of the BEST instances of AP wannabe idiocy as played out on an internet forum which I have witnessed.

B79, if you're interested, PM me. If I have the time and inclination in the coming couple of weeks, I will respond. You should be asking for all the action you can swallow.
Nonsense is a very hard thing to keep up. Just ask the Wizard and company.
MaxPen
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:12:01 PM permalink
......
AxelWolf
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:24:29 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

No his monkey is going to summon 2 zero value cards, anytime he chooses during a single session. I don't feel the need for him to put up anything in advance. He should have plenty of chips in front of him to pay if he loses. If that magic monkey brings him the 2 zero cards we each pay him $400. If the dastardly monkey fails he pays each of us $400.

That's easy to say since you don't have to even show up. Who doesn't want that deal?

What if you canceled work or flew in for this event, just to find out the person don't show up and refused to pay?

I would like to see some money put up as good faith that this will take place(not just that he will pay) As I said we have had people go so far as to make bet offers offer plane fare, take pictures of cash, everything you can imagine. and they backed. It was all just Fluff and BS.

We just had a recent situation of non payment on a side bet from 2 people who have been members here for a long time.

.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
surrender88s
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:41:49 PM permalink
If I had a magical little monkey, I would tell him I need this thread to end before 20 pages.
"Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1." -Warren Buffett on risk/return
MaxPen
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:46:49 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

That's easy to say since you don't have to even show up. Who doesn't want that deal?

What if you canceled work or flew in for this event, just to find out the person don't show up and refused to pay?

I would like to see some money put up as good faith that this will take place(not just that he will pay) As I said we have had people go so far as to make bet offers offer plane fare, take pictures of cash, everything you can imagine. and they backed. It was all just Fluff and BS.

We just had a recent situation of non payment on a side bet from 2 people who have been members here for a long time.

.



I am confident enough that he will be in town soon enough. He comes a few times per year. When he comes I will be able to be present anywhere at any time with a couple day notice. At which time, I would meet up and witness this magic monkey in action.
If he doesn't follow thru then his reputation will be mud. He doesn't seem like that kind of guy.

This is not rocket science.

I am willing to let you hold my 400 so that you and any other person interested in taking a piece of my action knows that I am for real.

Why does this have to be so difficult?
sc15
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March 19th, 2015 at 12:49:03 PM permalink
I think B79 already put up some money with mission as a sign of good faith.

The other side doesn't really need to front money before the trip since B79 isn't making a special trip for this; he's going there anyway so if you no-show it's no loss to him.
AxelWolf
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March 19th, 2015 at 1:46:51 PM permalink
Quote: sc15

I think B79 already put up some money with mission as a sign of good faith.

The other side doesn't really need to front money before the trip since B79 isn't making a special trip for this; he's going there anyway so if you no-show it's no loss to him.

LOL..... I DID with Mission, not him, he hasn't put up anything. He said he would put it up with AOS.

Max....it's not difficult if you don't have to change plans and make arrangements, as I said people have jobs, plays and plans.

Go read all the bet proposal threads from seemingly serious people. It's not good odds.

It's not difficult to put up the money. If someone is serious they shouldn't have a problem doing so in advance such as I did and you offered.

If you're so confident give me 2.5 to 1 for $50.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MrV
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March 19th, 2015 at 5:32:03 PM permalink
I understand that if B79 prevails, the loser will bow to his monkey.

But what if, as expected, B79 loses?

I suggest he be required to spank his monkey at the baccarat table.
"What, me worry?"
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